While Beijing initially issued strong messages of support for Iran, its tone has since grown more cautious. Direct involvement in the conflict could harm China’s strategic global interests — but a controlled crisis could also create opportunities for Beijing.

China’s Silent Advantage: Who Gets Burned if Hormuz Closes?

A potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect nearly 20% of global oil flows. Ironically, this scenario may pose more of an advantage than a threat for China. Compared to the U.S. and the European Union, Beijing is better positioned to handle an energy squeeze. In fact, it continues importing Iranian oil relabeled through Malaysia, bypassing sanctions.

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Energy analysts suggest that China could weather a spike in oil prices with minimal damage, while Washington and Brussels may face heavier economic pressure.

Geopolitical Chess: China Adjusts Its Calculations

Despite signing a 25-year strategic agreement with Iran in 2021 and participating in joint military drills, China refrains from openly opposing Israel.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi described Israel’s attacks as “unacceptable” during a recent call with his Israeli counterpart, but deliberately avoided stronger language like “condemnation.” This signals Beijing’s desire to avoid taking sides too openly.

What Lies Behind China’s Quiet Diplomacy?

In a recent statement, the Chinese Foreign Ministry emphasized that “stability in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters is in the shared interest of the international community.” Compared to previous assertive messaging, this represents a notable softening.

According to political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, China is “staying diplomatically aligned with Iran without directly condemning Israel.”

Experts suggest Beijing is trying to preserve its strategic ties with Iran while maintaining an image as a peaceful global actor. How long this balancing act can last, however, remains uncertain.

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