Record-Breaking Inflow Momentum

On June 6, spot Ether ETFs saw $25.3 million in net inflows, marking the third straight trading week of uninterrupted capital movement into these funds. If the trend continues, the current streak could surpass $1 billion next week.

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By contrast, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a break in their inflow pattern on May 29, posting $346.8 million in outflows. Since then, Bitcoin ETF flows have been volatile.

ETH Price Surge Aligns With ETF Demand

Ether’s price is also strengthening. As of publication, ETH is trading at $2,490, up 31.23% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. The bullish trend may be fueling investor interest in Ethereum-related ETFs.

Some analysts, including Crypto Eagles, believe Ether is mirroring historical gold fractals — possibly heading toward a $6,000 price target in the current cycle. ETH’s all-time high of $4,878 was recorded in November 2021.

Staking-Enabled ETFs Could Be Next

While spot Ether ETFs have gained traction, industry voices argue that staking functionality would greatly enhance long-term returns. On May 31, Cointelegraph reported that REX Shares had filed to launch the first Ethereum and Solana staking ETFs in the U.S., possibly within weeks.

ETF analyst James Seyffart noted that while an official launch date is still pending, REX used “regulatory workarounds” to fast-track the product.

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BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw its largest daily outflow since launching a year ago. After the New Year holiday, trading resumed in the U.S., and on January 2, IBIT experienced a record outflow of $332.6 million, according to data from Farside Investors.

This outflow marks the highest amount since the product’s launch in January 2024, surpassing the previous record of $188.7 million set on December 24. Additionally, it highlights a new record of three consecutive trading days of outflows for this BTC investment product. Over the past week, IBIT has seen a total outflow of $392.6 million.

BlackRock ETF Outflows Accelerate

The latest outflows can be seen as a minor fluctuation in the broader picture. According to Bloomberg data shared by senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, BlackRock’s fund ranked third among all exchange-traded funds in the United States in 2024, with inflows totaling $37.2 billion.

The leading ETF for the year was Vanguard 500 Index Fund, with inflows of $116 billion, while iShares Core S&P 500 ETF came in second with $89 billion in inflows.

Bitcoin pioneer Adam Back commented, “Maybe in 2025, Bitcoin ETFs will take the top spot with more inflows and higher prices.”

Top ETFs in the U.S. by Inflows in 2024

On January 2, despite the outflow trend from BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, Bitwise, Fidelity, and Ark 21Shares saw inflows of $48.3 million, $36.2 million, and $16.5 million, respectively. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust also saw a small inflow of $6.9 million, while its larger GBTC fund experienced an outflow of $23.1 million.

The total net outflow for the day came to $242 million, as BlackRock’s outflows offset the inflows of its competitors.

On the same day, ETF Store President Nate Geraci shared some predictions for crypto ETFs in 2025.

These include the merging of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, the trading of spot ETH ETF options, in-kind creation and redemption options for spot BTC and ETH ETFs, staking for spot Ether funds, and the approval of a spot Solana ETF.

Geraci commented, “Actually, all of these will happen.”

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BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) experienced its largest-ever single-day outflow as Bitcoin funds recorded more than $1.5 billion in total outflows over four consecutive trading days.

According to CoinGlass data, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) saw $188.7 million in outflows on December 24, surpassing its previous record of $72.7 million on December 20.

On Christmas Eve, the total outflows from 12 US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $338.4 million.

Since December 19, these funds have seen a total of $1.52 billion in net outflows.

All-time IBIT Flow Data Shows The Fund’s Rare Outflow (red) Days

Inflows Into Ether ETFs Continue

The Fidelity Wise Origin BTC Fund and ARK 21Shares BTC ETF saw outflows of $83.2 million and $75 million, respectively, on December 24, while the Bitwise BTC ETF was the only one to record an inflow, with $8.5 million.

Meanwhile, Ether ETFs experienced consecutive days of inflows leading up to Christmas.

US spot Ether ETFs continued their momentum with $53.6 million in inflows on December 24, following a $130.8 million inflow on December 23.

Total Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow

Launched in July, the Ether funds had a slow start compared to the strong early momentum seen by spot BTC ETFs after their January launch. However, since late November, Ether ETFs gained traction, experiencing an 18-day inflow streak that ended on December 18.

Ether Is Set To Outperform Bitcoin in January

According to CoinMarketCap data, at the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $98,035, up 4.59% in the last 24 hours, while Ether was trading at $3,420, up 3.28% over the same period.

TradingView data shows that Ether’s relative strength to Bitcoin is currently at 0.035. Some analysts suggest that Ether may outperform Bitcoin in January 2025.

Meanwhile, on December 16, the net assets of US Bitcoin ETFs surpassed gold funds for the first time, according to K33 Research.

On December 16, US Bitcoin funds collectively surpassed $129 billion in assets under management (AUM), overtaking US gold ETFs, which held slightly less, according to K33 Research’s head of research, Vetle Lund.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas:

AUM figure includes spot BTC ETFs as well as ETFs that track Bitcoin’s performance using financial derivatives, such as futures.

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Onchain options protocol Derive states that data shows the chances of Ethereum reaching the anticipated $5,000 mark by the end of 2024 are less than 10%. However, significant inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) point to an impending “supply-side crisis.”

In a market report on December 10, Derive’s research director Sean Dawson said that the probability of Ethereum reaching $5,000 by December 27 peaked at 16%, but has recently dropped to just over 8%.

Ether’s chances of reaching $5,000 by the end of the year have decreased by about 50%. Source: Derive.xyz

According to CoinMarketCap, ETH needs a 37% increase from its current price of $3,669 to reach $5,000. Dawson added, “The distribution of call and put options for ETH is balanced, indicating a neutral market sentiment.”

TradFi is Scooping Up Cheap ETH!

Pseudonymous crypto trader CoinMamba, in a post on X on December 10, stated…

“My target for ETH is still $5,000 by the end of the year,” he said. “Do what you will with that information,” he added.

At the time of publication, Ether was trading at $3,661. Source: CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, in an X post on the same day, Eric Conner stated that the $305 million in daily inflows into Ether ETFs on December 10 signal an impending “supply-side crisis.” Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano added, “TradFi is gobbling up the cheap ETH.” According to Farside data, $202.2 million of the $305 million in inflows came from the Fidelity Ethereum Fund.

Ethereum Is Expected to Reach a New ATH This Week

This follows a statement from Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams on December 9, suggesting that a new all-time high for Ether “could happen” within the next week.

Ether’s current all-time high is $4,878, reached in November 2021.

Meanwhile, pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi, in an X post on December 9 to his 830,900 followers, said Ether is experiencing “structural changes and the beginning of significant ETF flows.”

Highlighting that ETH had its “highest weekly close of the year,” Pentoshi echoed Adams’ sentiment, suggesting that the retest of Ether’s all-time high could happen sooner than many traders anticipate.

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Spot Ether ETFs in the U.S. recorded their largest single-day inflow in history and marked the ninth consecutive day of positive trading. According to preliminary data from Farside Investors and decentralized news aggregator Tree News, a total of $431.5 million flowed into nine spot Ether ETFs on December 5.

This broke the previous record of $333 million on November 29, becoming the largest daily inflow since the funds launched on July 23. Spot Ether ETFs have maintained a net positive flow since November 21, accumulating over $1.3 billion in the past two weeks.

This significant inflow day pushed the total net inflows above $1 billion, continuing to rise steadily as the outflow from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust slowed down.

• The BlackRock iShares Ethereum Trust accounted for the majority of the inflows, with a record $295.7 million, bringing its total to $2.3 billion.
• Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund saw an inflow of $113.6 million, while Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust recorded $30.7 million and the Bitwise Ethereum ETF had $6.6 million.
• Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust, on the other hand, registered an outflow of $15.1 million, and the other funds reported zero flows.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. continue to show strong momentum, with a total net inflow of $747.8 million for 11 funds on December 5. According to CoinGlass, the majority of this figure came from the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust, which recorded an inflow of $751.6 million. In contrast, Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust experienced an outflow of $148.8 million.

Ether Strength

The BlackRock ETF has seen nearly $2.5 billion in inflows over the past five trading days, bringing its total to an impressive $34 billion since launch.

Meanwhile, Ether ETF inflows have picked up pace as spot ETH prices surged 16% over the past two weeks, reaching an eight-month high of $3,946 on December 5, according to CoinGecko.

Analysts suggest that Ether’s strength against Bitcoin (ETH/BTC ratio) could increase further over the next six to 12 months after recent underperformance. According to TradingView, the ratio currently stands at 0.04 and has risen by 14.5% over the past month.

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A few investors have suggested that performance lag might be caused in part by withdrawals from spot Ether ETFs But according on Farside Investors data, Grayscale’s ETHE with lowest-ever outflows of $20 million on Aug. 8 might be breaking this trend. Grayscale still has $5 billion worth of Ether, hence consistency in outflows might help to reduce demand on Ether’s price.

Regarding traditional finance, investors are becoming more and more certain that the Federal Reserve of the United States will lower rates all through 2024. Inspired by remarks made by Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who observed that inflation is returning near the Fed’s 2% objective, this anticipation would improve the attraction of cryptocurrencies by so lowering the attractiveness of fixed-income returns, thus increasing risk markets.

As distributed application (DApp) activity rises by 55% over past week, Ethereum’s network activity has notably surged. Prominent platforms including Uniswap, 1inch Network, and CoW Swap have fueled Ethereum’s growth keeping its leadership in the distributed exchange (DEX). Underlining Ethereum’s expansion even further, its total value locked (TVL) also hit 19.7 million ETH, a 9.4% rise from the month before.

Critics contend that Ethereum’s average transaction costs of $3.85 discourage adoption, although this ignores two-layer scaling choices depending on native TVL value—Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism. L2Beat states that given layer-2 activity on Aug. 7 averages around 318 transactions per second, these layer-2 solutions have greatly lowered operation expenses and increased transaction capacity.

As its network keeps expanding, especially with regard to its layer-2 scaling solutions, Ethereum is positioned to achieve the $3,000 milestone assuming investor attitude stays the same.

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Significant Growth in Daily Active Users

Data gathered by crypto ETF issuer Bitwise indicates that, with the lion’s share coming from the Ethereum layer-1 mainnet, Ethereum and its scaling solutions, Arbitrum and Polygon, had an average daily active user base of more than 250,000 in Q1 2020.

Now including the since-launched layer-2 networks Optimism, Base, and zkSync, this daily user count as of the first quarter of 2024 surpassed around 2.25 million, approximately nine times bigger.

Pushing transactions to L2s has caused Ethereum to have a considerably lower fraction of daily active users.

The Ethereum mainnet had 378,000 active users on June 4; Polygon had 1.3 million; and the other four L2s recorded overall about 1.5 million active users.

Ethereum’s Scaling and Future Potential

Late 2021 brought optimism; the zkSync mainnet and Base began to be accessible to the public in 2023.

Although Ethereum’s user count doesn’t seem very good, co-founder Vitalik Buterin is focused on scaling the main blockchain via L2s, so this is part of the plan even though the user count doesn’t seem very good.

He recently claimed that L2s resemble the sharding idea of the previous Eth 2 design and that the layer may potentially support expansion in several “subcultures” inside the Ethereum network.

Price Predictions and Market Dynamics

Concurrently, VanEck, the maker of the crypto ETF, has set a price goal for Ethereum based on projections of the coin reaching $22,000 by 2030.

Matthew Sigel and two colleagues, the analysts, raised their 2030 expectations for Ether—up from just $11,800 last year—noting that its revenue per user exceeds most Web2 companies and is set to grow in popularity among traditional financial market participants as well as with Big Tech in a June 5 blog published by VanEck’s head of digital assets research.

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“We believe spot ether ETFs will soon be approved for trading on US stock exchanges. This breakthrough would enable institutional investors and financial advisers to own this special asset […] and gain from the price and liquidity benefits typical of ETFs,” the experts noted.

“We estimate ETH’s 2030 valuation depending on a projection of $66B in free cashflows generated by Ethereum and accruing to the ETH token,” the experts said.

Ethereum’s Revenue and Fee Dynamics

Referring to it as a “modern miracle,” bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams pointed out that the Ethereum blockchain earns three times more fees than top-layer 2 networks and Solana combined, despite reduced user counts.

By paying Ethereum fees to resolve transactions on the main chain, the L2s gain from its security.

Though others caution that inflows into the new crypto ETFs will be substantially less than the Bitcoin ETFs, many hope the introduction of spot Ether ETFs will ultimately drive the price of Ether to a new all-time high.

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For the remainder of this year, JPMorgan said it expected spot-ether ETFs to draw as much as $3 billion in net inflows. Should staking be allowed, the figure might reach $6 billion, it claimed.

“Bitcoin had the first mover advantage, maybe saturating the overall demand for crypto assets in response to spot ETF approvals,” analysts headed by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

Following the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of important regulatory files from applicants last week, ETFs are almost ready for release in the United States. The regulator has to also approve their S-1 forms before that can happen, so they are not yet cleared to trade. Trade in bitcoin ETFs started in January.

Related: Ethereum Inflows Hit $36M After SEC Approval

The paper noted that there is no such future incentive for ether; hence, the bitcoin reward halving in April constituted an extra demand stimulus for spot bitcoin ETFs. Furthermore, less appealing than other platforms that provide staking profits is the unavailability of staking for certified spot ETFs, the bank stated.

Ether, as an application token, “differs from bitcoin in its value proposition for investors, with bitcoin having a broader appeal by competing with gold in portfolio allocations,” the authors said.

“Less liquidity and fewer assets under management (AUM) would make ether’s spot ETFs less appealing to institutional investors than those of its bigger rival“, the bank said.

Since speculative investors who purchased the Grayscale Ethereum Trust in anticipation of it being converted to an ETF are likely to take profit, the market’s initial reaction to the launch of spot ether ETFs is most certainly negative. According to the study, ETHE could observe $1 billion of outflows, which would lower ether prices from the top down.

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Analyst Pessimism Grows on Ether ETF Approvals

Analysts have grown increasingly pessimistic about the chances of approval for the eight proposed Ether ETFs. This shift comes amid a lack of communication between the SEC and the issuers, including BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity, and others. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expressed his growing concern due to this radio silence, revising his previous cautious optimism to an expectation of denial by May 23rd.

Public Sentiment Mirrors Analyst Downturn

Public confidence in Ether ETF approval by the end of May has also fallen sharply. Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, shows odds dropping from 77% in January to just 32% currently. Over $2 million has been wagered on the outcome on Polymarket.

Grayscale Considers Staking to Enhance Ether ETF Appeal

In an attempt to improve their ETF’s competitiveness, Grayscale is exploring adding staking capabilities to its spot Ether ETF proposal. This would allow them to earn rewards on the underlying Ethereum holdings, potentially mitigating inflationary pressures and matching similar products. Grayscale’s proposal requires shareholder approval with over 50% consent needed to proceed.

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