The stagnant movement in stablecoin yields shows that the market is not overheated yet. This increases the possibility that Ethereum may regain strength in the short term and rise toward the $3,200 level.

Leverage Pressure Remains Weak!

Santiment closely monitors the lending yields (APR rates) of major stablecoins such as USDT and USDC. These rates are considered critical because they generally reflect the leverage demand in the market. Currently, yields are moving between 3.9% and 4.5%, a range historically associated with low leverage usage.

In other words, investors are definitely avoiding aggressive positions. The market has not yet entered a phase of speculative excess, and this environment is thought to signal a period where prices still carry upward potential before forming a major peak.

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Will Ethereum Rise?

Ethereum has dropped more than 21% in the past 30 days. The selling pressure caused by the massive $19 billion liquidation wave on October 10 still hasn’t fully disappeared from the markets. In addition, U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff plans on Chinese imports have significantly suppressed global risk appetite.

However, the picture has been changing in recent days. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $312.6 million. The three-week outflow trend has been broken, and institutional investor interest has returned. At the same time, technical indicators are strengthening day by day.

The analytics firm states that Ethereum was trading around $3,000 at the time of the report and that current on-chain dynamics suggest the asset may be preparing for a move toward $3,200. This indicates approximately a %7 upward potential from the current levels.

If a close below $3024 occurs, it was mentioned that Ethereum could experience an internal structural decline. Yesterday, this close happened, and the price pulled back to $3000. If it closes below $3000, a further decline toward the $2950–$2900 range appears likely. These levels seem more probable for a potential rebound.

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What Is Social Dominance?

According to Santiment, when a crypto asset takes up an excessive share of social media mentions—an explosion in social dominance—it typically reflects that investors are in a state of high “euphoria”. The analytics platform notes that the ETH/BTC ratio has surged nearly 70% since early May, accompanied by this unusual rise in social dominance levels. Such crowded buying activity may be seen as a red flag.

How Should the Market Be Evaluated?

Historically, when ETH’s social dominance peaked, price corrections often followed. According to Santiment, this indicates that the majority has entered a phase of speculative excitement, and the buyer pool is narrowing — in other words, the ability to sustain upward price movement with new entrants is diminishing. Nevertheless, memecoin social dominance remains at low levels. Santiment notes that true market tops are often marked by widespread speculative hype around meme coins. The absence of such activity for now could hint that the ETH rally is not yet over.

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Institutional interest is also growing. Companies like SharpLink Gaming and Bitmine Immersion have been buying ETH, and according to Santiment analyst Maksim Balashevich, this institutional movement could become a new driving force for ETH. This growing narrative of “corporate treasuries adopting ETH” may push the asset to outperform Bitcoin. Galaxy Digital CEO Michael Novogratz also predicted that ETH could surpass Bitcoin in the next three to six months.

• Be cautious in the short term: Investors may react quickly to extreme social sentiment. Measures like stop-losses, profit-taking, or downsizing positions could be considered.

• Monitor June–July correction patterns: A potential 5–6% drop in the ETH/BTC ratio could resemble the local top observed in mid-May.

• Institutional staying power: Continued buying from institutions could offer long-term support for Ethereum through underlying demand.

• Upcoming chain upgrades: Planned protocol upgrades on Ethereum (such as proto‑danksharding and staking improvements) may push the price upward. However, whether these developments deliver their expected benefits remains to be seen.

Ethereum Faces Challenges at Key Resistance Zone

Ethereum has repeatedly tested a key resistance level in recent days but has yet to break through. While multiple rejections from this zone have been observed, breaking it this week is still among the possible scenarios. If the resistance is overcome, the price could gain momentum towards the $3,800–$3,900 range.

Eyes on Friday’s Interest Rate Decision

On the other hand, another major development the markets are focusing on this week is the interest rate decision to be announced on Friday. If an unexpected rate cut occurs, contrary to expectations, it could have a positive impact on the crypto market. In such a scenario, Ethereum may show strong upward momentum toward the $4,000 level.

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