As volatility rises, traders are focusing on “max pain” levels. According to Deribit, this expiry surpasses last week’s $6 billion event. The rollover of October contracts may increase liquidity and trigger short-term price movements.

Bitcoin Price Faces Max Pain Pressure

Bitcoin trades at $109,287 at the time of writing. During this expiry, 124,171 contracts, approximately $13.59 billion, will close. The max pain level sits at $114,000, the point where option holders experience maximum losses. Historically, BTC tends to move toward these levels as expiry approaches, reflecting market makers’ hedging activity.

Data shows a put-to-call ratio of 0.70, indicating a mild bullish bias. However, Greeks.live analysts warn that the market remains “fragile and bidless” after recent liquidations.

Key support levels lie at $112,000 and the CME gap between $110,000–$111,000. Resistance exists between $116,000–$118,000. If support breaks, $106,000 could trigger roughly a 3% correction.

Open interest has dropped from 100,000 to 70,000 contracts over the past month, suggesting waning trader participation and profit-taking.

Ethereum Shows Cautious Bullish Outlook

Ethereum trades at $3,854, with 646,902 contracts worth $2.49 billion expiring today. The max pain level is $4,100, slightly above the current price. Deribit data shows 381,462 call contracts surpassing 265,440 put contracts, signaling that traders hedge against upside while remaining cautious.

The put-to-call ratio of 0.70 reflects limited optimism. Deribit analysts note that easing U.S.-China trade tensions and improving macro conditions increase short-term upside risk.

Meanwhile, Greeks.live highlights that buyers remain weak and downside risk persists.

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According to data from Deribit, $21.097 billion in notional value across BTC and ETH contracts will roll off at 08:00 UTC. Analysts warn that rate cut signals, liquidity changes, and global risk sentiment could drive sharp price swings. 

Bitcoin Options Show Bullish Sentiment 

Bitcoin dominates with $16 billion in expiring options, representing the lion’s share of today’s activity. Open interest totals 146,224 contracts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.71, signaling bullish expectations. 

The max pain level stands at $111,000, above the current price of $109,526. This suggests traders may attempt to push spot prices closer to that level as expiry passes, reflecting confidence despite recent pullbacks. 

Options Expiry Alert

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $22.3B in crypto options expire on Deribit; one of the biggest quarter-end expiries. $BTC: Notional: $17.06B | Put/Call: 0.76 | Max Pain: $110K$ETH: Notional: $5.20B | Put/Call: 0.80 | Max Pain: $3,800

Q3’s largest… pic.twitter.com/FDT1tWomYH

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) September 25, 2025

Ethereum Struggles Below $4,000 

Ethereum accounts for $5.08 billion in notional value with 1.28 million contracts. Its put-to-call ratio is 0.86, showing a more cautious stance than Bitcoin. 

The max pain level of $3,800 sits close to ETH’s current price of $3,963, after dipping below the psychological $4,000 mark earlier this week. Options analytics firm Greeks.live warned that implied volatility skew shifted toward puts, highlighting increased downside risks. 

Market Outlook and Macro Factors 

This expiry dwarfs last week’s $4.3 billion in contracts, underscoring the magnitude of today’s event. As Q3 closes, the crypto market navigates: 

• Bitcoin’s steadier consolidation range 
• Ethereum’s fragile technical outlook 
• Central bank policy shifts and liquidity changes 

Analysts suggest volatility may ease over the weekend as traders reposition. However, given its scale, this expiry could set the tone for Q4, where many investors are already placing bullish bets. 

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Bitcoin’s max pain level stands at $108,000, while Ethereum’s is at $2,600. These price levels could act as gravitational zones as contracts settle. However, any price drop may be temporary, as markets often stabilize quickly after large expiries.  

BTC and ETH Options Show Balanced Market Sentiment  

Data from Deribit reveals that Bitcoin options expiring today hold a notional value of $4.3 billion, with 36,970 contracts open. The Put/Call ratio (PCR) stands at 1.06, indicating slightly more sell positions than buy ones.  

Ethereum options set to expire are worth $712.35 million, covering 239,926 contracts. ETH also shows a Put/Call ratio of 1.11, which reflects a cautious but not overly bearish market stance.  

For context, last week’s expiry on July 4 totaled $3.6 billion, with 27,384 BTC and 237,274 ETH contracts. Today’s figures mark a significant increase in notional value for both assets. Notably, both weeks shared Put/Call ratios above 1, showing that investors remain hedged or unsure about short-term market direction.  

Leverage Spikes as Risk Appetite Grows  

Analysts at Greeks.live report a lack of consensus on direction, with traders relying heavily on news-driven setups. The platform noted extremely risky trades, including 500x leveraged positions, being opened near current price levels.  

“Traders are taking massive risks with high-confidence setups,” Greeks.live noted. These strategies may offer outsized returns but also expose investors to sudden, steep losses.  

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $118,823, having set a new all-time high (ATH). Meanwhile, Ethereum stands at $3000, after a strong 7% intraday gain. Both are well above their respective max pain points.  

While a pullback toward these pain levels is possible as expiry approaches, a complete drop to $108K or $2,600 is unlikely. Still, short-term volatility could impact both retail and institutional strategies.  

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