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Trade Agreements Status

Trade Minister Howard Lutnick announced that August 1st is a “hard deadline,” and new tariffs will be imposed on countries with which no agreement has been reached after this date. Lutnick stated that a basic 10% tariff will be applied to smaller countries, but higher tariffs may be imposed on larger economies. Discussions with the EU suggest that a 15% tariff is possible.

Donald Trump directly stated about the EU: “The EU may be forced to lower its tariffs.” The European Central Bank (ECB) decided not to change interest rates due to the uncertainty that US tariffs could create for the European economy. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the effects of global trade should be monitored, and therefore interest rate policies should be carefully evaluated. The 14% appreciation of the euro against the dollar this year is affecting export competitiveness and complicating inflation dynamics.

While negotiations between the US and the EU continue, it is reported that the EU is preparing to implement counter-tariffs worth 93 billion euros. This could signal a new wave of tensions in transatlantic trade relations.

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This decision was largely anticipated by the markets and is being interpreted as laying the groundwork for a potential rate cut later in the year. The impact of the decision was immediately felt in the cryptocurrency markets as well.

Weak Signals of Economic Growth

Data from the private sector in the 20-member Eurozone suggested a mild recovery despite ongoing stagnation in major economies like France and Germany. However, the pace of growth remains weak.

At the same time, unemployment rates across the region continue to hover at historically low levels. Inflation is also near target, with annual inflation recorded at 2% in June—slightly up from 1.9% in May.

Inflation Rising in the U.S. and U.K.

Meanwhile, inflation in the U.S. rose to 2.7% in June, exceeding expectations, compared to 2.4% the previous month. In the United Kingdom, inflation reached 3.6%, indicating a more aggressive price surge compared to Europe.

These developments make the ECB’s decision to hold rates steady even more significant. However, reports from Washington suggesting possible tariff hikes—especially on steel—are raising concerns. With additional tariffs of up to 50% being discussed, many companies are reportedly postponing investment and employment plans.

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Cautious Waiting Continues

Powell emphasized that the impacts of tariffs have not yet fully materialized, which is why the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach. “We went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs. We expect higher readings throughout the summer. The prudent move is to wait and gather more data,” he said, highlighting the importance of a data-driven strategy.

Powell: We’re Seeing a Cooling in the Labor Market

He also pointed out a gradual cooling in the labor market, which serves as a key indicator in balancing efforts to control inflation.

Powell: Majority of Fed Members Expect Rate Cuts This Year

The Fed Chair revealed that a solid majority of FED members agree that another interest rate cut would be appropriate before the end of the year. “We are not ruling out any meeting. It’s not possible to say July is too soon; decisions will fully depend on the data,” Powell stated.

Will Powell Continue as FED Chair?

Another topic that has been on the agenda for a long time is the FED chair. When asked about the great tension between Powell and Trump, Powell responded as follows:

“I have nothing to say to you about remaining as Fed Chair.”

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Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, attributes this cautious stance to volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and structural conservatism. “Central banks prioritize stability and liquidity — and Bitcoin, despite its resilience, still doesn’t consistently offer these qualities,” he said.

Shift Away from Traditional Bonds

The survey also highlights a growing appetite for diversification. While gold remains the dominant reserve asset, central banks are increasingly eyeing corporate bonds and public equities for the next 10 years. About 16% expect to reduce their government bond holdings, and 13% plan to cut cash reserves.

Meanwhile, digital assets are slowly gaining ground. Around 10% of participants said they might increase exposure to digital assets, though the focus is primarily on tokenized securities rather than mainstream cryptocurrencies.

Governments Are Holding Bitcoin?

According to Chainalysis, some governments have started to accumulate significant amounts of cryptocurrency, mainly from law enforcement seizures. Unlike in the past, these assets are now being strategically held instead of immediately liquidated. The United States is among the countries shifting toward this approach.

In China, approximately $50 billion worth of seized crypto is held, although the lack of a centralized management policy raises concerns about transparency and long-term value. Analysts believe that a unified national strategy could reshape China’s stance on digital assets.

Early Bitcoin Adopters: El Salvador and Bhutan

El Salvador made global headlines in 2021 when it became the first country to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. While the move attracted investment and attention, it also triggered political friction, particularly with the IMF, leading the country to soften some of its policies. Young notes that El Salvador’s goal was to attract investment, tourism, and tech infrastructure.

Shifting Sentiment in Europe

In a bold departure from traditional European monetary policy, Czech National Bank Governor Aleš Michl proposed allocating 5% of the country’s reserves to Bitcoin. This view contrasts with the European Central Bank, where President Christine Lagarde continues to reject Bitcoin as a viable reserve asset due to concerns over liquidity, security, and AML compliance.

Switzerland presents a unique case: a 2024 People’s Initiative aims to amend the constitution, requiring the Swiss National Bank to hold Bitcoin alongside gold. If successful, it could lead to the world’s first national referendum on Bitcoin as a reserve asset — showcasing rising public and institutional acceptance of digital assets in a country known for financial privacy.

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As broader markets anticipate a potential ECB rate cut, Bitcoin has demonstrated a correlation with the positive sentiment in equity markets. Over the past 24 hours, the world’s largest digital asset has surged over 2%, reaching a value of $69,035 as of 7:15 a.m. ET, according to The Block’s Price Pages.

Major European and UK equity indices also showed gains on Monday. The FTSE 100 in London experienced a slight increase of 13.48 points to reach 8,288.86 during early trading. Similarly, the regional Stoxx 600 index in Europe rose by 0.44% to 520.44. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures in New York were up by 0.15%, and the NYSE Composite saw a 1.3% increase in pre-market trading.

This surge coincides with expectations of relief for borrowers in the eurozone due to anticipated rate cuts by the ECB. With recent declines in inflation, the ECB is predicted to lower its benchmark rates during Thursday’s monetary policy meeting.

Money markets indicate a high probability, around 93%, of an ECB rate cut this week. It is anticipated that the ECB will reduce the rate on its deposit facility, which banks utilize for overnight deposits with the Eurosystem, to 3.75%, down from the current record high of 4%.

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