The inflation, which was recorded at 2% in the previous period, indicates that inflationary pressures are continuing in the markets. This data is of critical importance for the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). 

The market expectation was at the 1.9% level. The previous period was recorded at 2%. Inflation came in above expectations. Monthly inflation was recorded at 0.1%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy), which is one of the key inflation indicators, rose to 2.9% on an annual basis.

This shows that the fundamental components of inflation are strengthening. Services sector inflation, at 1.82%, became the component with the highest annual inflation. According to the data, the annual inflation rate in the Eurozone came in above expectations, at 2%. This shows that the rate remained at the same level as the 2% recorded in June. The market expectation was 1.9%. 

This situation indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) has reached its inflation target of 2%, but that the pressures on price stability have not completely disappeared. Movements in sub-items, especially core inflation, will continue to provide important clues for the ECB’s future monetary policy decisions.

Following the news, the Bitcoin price is trading at $115,350. In short, there is an environment of uncertainty and reduced risk appetite in the markets. Investors are carefully watching Trump’s tariffs and the Fed’s interest rate policies.

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1. Customs Tariffs and Reciprocity

• A 15% base tariff was imposed on goods coming from the EU, a rate lower than Trump’s earlier prediction of 30%.

• Aircraft parts, semiconductor equipment, certain chemicals, agricultural products, and critical raw materials were included in the zero-tariff category. However, the current 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum products were maintained permanently, and a quota system is expected to be implemented for these products.

2. Energy and Investment Commitments

• To reduce dependence on Russian natural gas, the European Union committed to importing $250 billion worth of LNG (liquefied natural gas) annually from the U.S. Over three years, this totals approximately $750 billion.

• The EU also agreed to make a total of $600 billion in direct investments in the U.S. during Trump’s second term.

3. Military Equipment Procurement

• European countries reached an agreement to purchase a significant amount of military equipment from the U.S., establishing a major economic link in the defense sector.

In his statement to the press, Trump emphasized that this agreement provides U.S. exporters with long-awaited market access and brings new momentum to transatlantic relations. Von der Leyen noted that the agreement, signed after tough negotiations, eliminated uncertainties, created stability for investors, and established a balanced power dynamic between the parties.

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How Did the Market React?

The business world and investors welcomed the agreement’s stabilizing effect on U.S.–EU trade. The euro appreciated by 0.2–0.3% against the dollar. Analysts from firms like JPMorgan, ING, and Pepperstone predicted long-term growth potential particularly in the automotive, energy, defense, and tech sectors.

Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament’s trade committee, stated that the EU’s investment commitments must be carefully examined and expressed concerns that the flow of capital might come at the expense of other internal EU priorities. The differing tariff regime in Northern Ireland also raised diplomatic concerns regarding the Good Friday Agreement.

When Will It Take Effect?

The U.S. announced that the agreement will be officially implemented in the coming weeks, following the release of results from Customs and Trade Investigations. It was also noted that tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors will be “evaluated on a separate basis.” The approval processes by EU member states and the European Parliament are expected to be completed in the coming weeks.

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Main Provisions of the Agreement

• The U.S. agreed to implement a fixed 15% customs tariff on goods imported from the EU, stepping back from a potential 30% high tariff.

• Including the automotive sector, most products will be subject to this 15% tariff. Von der Leyen emphasized that the agreement covers a “flat 15% all-inclusive tariff.”

• Special products in the pharmaceutical sector (such as generic drugs and certain chemicals) will likely be exempt from tariffs or subject to special arrangements; details will be clarified in further negotiations.

Additional Commitments

• The EU announced that in the coming period, it will purchase $750 billion worth of American energy products.

• Additionally, the EU has committed to a $600 billion investment package.

• Initiatives may be launched for a “zero-zero” tariff on certain strategic sectors (such as aerospace components and semiconductors); however, the harmonization process is still ongoing.

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Allianz leadership assessed the agreement as a move to avoid a crisis for Germany’s strong automotive industry.Chairman of the European Parliament’s Trade Committee Bernd Lange criticized the deal as “unbalanced”, stating that the investment commitments could come at a cost for EU industry. Trump described the deal as a “good deal for everybody”.

The written version of the agreement has not yet been published, as final approval from EU member states and parliaments is still pending. This arrangement reflects an approach consistent with other **15–20% tariff trade agreements** signed by the Trump administration with countries like Japan, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.

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• Trump reminded that EU steel and aluminum imports currently face 50% tariffs, automotive products 25%, and other goods 10%.

• If the tariff increases can be reduced by August 1, 2025, the planned 30% customs duty could be avoided.

• A potential framework agreement, similar to the one reached with Japan, could impose a 15% base tariff on most EU goods and higher rates in critical sectors like steel and automotive.

EU’s Strategic Approach

Ursula von der Leyen stated that she believes the meeting in Scotland will be “positive” and that negotiations on behalf of the EU will continue. EU Member States have prepared €93 billion worth of retaliatory measures in case of a possible disagreement. Differences in views among countries are apparent: Germany favors a quick resolution to protect the automotive sector, while France and Spain resist in favor of a more balanced and fair deal.

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Possible Scenarios

1. If a framework agreement is reached

   • A 15% base tariff could be accepted. The planned 30% tariff on August 1 would be avoided.

   • A structure similar to the recent U.S.-Japan agreement might be implemented by June.

2. If talks fail

   • The U.S. may implement the planned 30% tariff.

   • The EU could enforce billions of euros worth of retaliatory tariffs.

In short, the Donald Trump – von der Leyen meeting in Scotland on Sunday, July 27 marks a turning point in EU–U.S. relations. If the 20 key issues—especially tariffs—are resolved, there may be a path forward; otherwise, transatlantic trade may enter a renewed period of tension.

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Trade Agreements and Customs Tariffs

Recently, Trump made statements about the future of trade negotiations with the European Union (EU). Trump pointed out the high customs duties and trade barriers between the US and the EU, stating that the chances of reaching an agreement with the EU were 50-50. He suggested that if the EU opens its market to American businesses, the US might reduce the customs duties on products coming from the EU. Otherwise, he threatened to impose a 30% additional customs tariff on goods imported from the EU. This could directly impact exports from EU countries. However, Donald Trump also mentioned that the negotiations are not yet completed and more developments could occur during the process.

On the other hand, Trump’s comments regarding the trade agreement with Japan are also noteworthy. The US and Japan’s trade deal includes Japan committing to invest $550 billion in America. Trump emphasized that this deal offers significant opportunities for economic growth. Japan is preparing to take important steps to make trade more balanced by making such investments in the US.

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Trade disputes with Canada have also caught Trump’s attention. He announced that the tariffs on goods from Canada will increase by 35% starting August 1, stating that this move was taken because Canada did not comply with the US’s trade demands. The Canadian government has indicated that it reserves the right to retaliate against this decision. This could lead to tensions in trade relations within North America.

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

Donald Trump reiterated that interest rates need to be lowered in his discussions with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump said that he got the impression that Powell might be ready to lower the rates and referred to him as “a very good man.” However, Powell’s term will end in May 2026, and Trump pointed out that there are legal obstacles to removing Powell from office. Powell has indicated that inflation remains above target, and reducing interest rates might be premature at this stage.

Donald Trump and the Global Economy

Donald Trump’s remarks seem poised to affect not only America’s domestic politics but also the global economic balance. The uncertainties in trade relations with the European Union, Japan, and Canada could fuel further trade wars around the world. The increase in customs tariffs could impact not only countries trading with the US but also the entire global trade chain.

Trump’s pressure on interest rate cuts creates a major question mark for global investors. These moves, aimed at accelerating the growth of the US economy, are creating a complex economic situation along with inflation rates and international trade pressures. How these developments will unfold is a subject of great anticipation in the coming period.

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In a pointed statement shared on social media, Trump declared: “If large countries don’t fully open their markets to U.S. products, I will impose much higher tariffs.” This bold stance has the potential to significantly shift global trade balances.

Japan Agreement: A Blueprint for the EU?

According to U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick, Japan has agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S., and in return, Japanese exports to America will face a 15% tariff—substantially lower than the previously threatened 25% rate. Lutnick believes this deal could serve as a template for future trade negotiations with the European Union.

Clear Message to the EU: Align or Face Consequences

Lutnick emphasized that if the EU accepts U.S. products and standards, Trump would be open to a deal. Otherwise, the administration is prepared to escalate tariffs significantly. Trump is particularly focused on gaining access to the European market for U.S. cars, trucks, rice, and agricultural goods.

His message is simple: “Open your markets and tariffs come down. Refuse, and tariffs go up.”

China and H20 Chip Controls: A Delicate Balance

Trump’s trade strategy also includes ongoing discussions with China. Secretary Lutnick stated that if China continues to supply critical magnets, the U.S. will gradually lift H20 chip export controls. Trump reportedly believes China can maintain a balanced approach in its purchases of H20 products—hinting at another phase in the tech and trade tug-of-war.

What’s Next? Uncertain Terrain Ahead

Trump’s aggressive rhetoric has placed global industries—especially automotive, agriculture, and technology—on high alert. Nations doing business with the U.S. may soon have to choose between market liberalization or confronting a much tougher tariff regime.

Whether Trump’s threats are a negotiation tactic or a preview of a deeper economic policy shift remains to be seen. Either way, the tone is unmistakable: trade partners must act, or face steep costs.

Crypto Market Reacts

The trade tension has already started to ripple through risk markets. In the past four hours, the crypto market saw $305 million in liquidations. Bitcoin, under the weight of macroeconomic uncertainty, dropped 1.68% to around $117,950.

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VASPs Under Regulatory Scrutiny

In its 2025 NRA report, Luxembourg has classified Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) as high-risk entities for money laundering. This risk is attributed to transaction volume, global client reach, legal structures, and the cross-border nature of crypto operations. The country had previously warned about the sector in its 2020 and 2022 reports, citing the digital and borderless characteristics of crypto assets as major vulnerabilities for financial crimes.

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The European Union is actively implementing the MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulation to harmonize crypto laws across its 27 member states. Since January, crypto companies have begun obtaining licenses to operate legally. In May, Kraken launched regulated crypto derivatives trading, and Crypto.com secured a similar license. However, not all players comply—Tether (USDT) refused to align with MiCA’s rules and was consequently delisted from Binance, Coinbase, and Crypto.com across EU platforms.

Crypto’s Role in Money Laundering Grows

With crypto’s increasing role in global finance, it’s also becoming a tool for illicit activity. Earlier this month, Hong Kong authorities arrested 12 individuals for laundering $15 million using over 500 bank accounts and cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, in Europe, 17 suspects were detained in connection with a “mafia crypto bank” accused of laundering €21 million ($23.5 million). Authorities seized over $5 million in cash, crypto, firearms, and luxury vehicles during the crackdown.

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Goodbye to Privacy Coins Like Monero and Zcash

Under the upcoming Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR), banks, financial institutions, and crypto asset service providers (CASPs) will no longer be allowed to maintain anonymous accounts or handle privacy coins. The regulation specifically targets cryptocurrencies such as Monero and Zcash, which are built around privacy.

Article 79 of AMLR explicitly bans anonymous accounts. And it doesn’t just apply to crypto; anonymous bank accounts, payment accounts, digital wallets, and safety deposit boxes are also included under this restriction.

EU’s Regulatory Structure Finalized, Details on Implementation Coming Soon

The EU’s new AML framework consists of AMLR, AMLD, and AMLAR regulations. While the main structure is largely finalized, the implementation specifics are still being developed. These will mostly be shaped by secondary legislation — implementing and delegated acts — coordinated by the European Banking Authority (EBA).

According to Vyara Savova from the European Crypto Initiative, public input is still being gathered during this phase. She emphasized that centralized crypto projects, especially CASPs regulated under MiCA, should already begin adapting their processes in line with this framework.

Stricter Oversight for CASPs: 6-Country Requirement and 2027 Launch

The new regulatory approach will focus on crypto service providers operating in six or more EU member states. These firms will be subject to direct supervision by AMLA, a new authority to be established for combating money laundering.

Initially, 40 crypto firms will be selected — at least one from each EU country. The selection process starts on July 1, 2027. Key criteria for selection include having over 20,000 local users or more than €50 million in transaction volume.

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“We Don’t Trade Privacy for Market Share”

“Telegram would rather exit a market than undermine encryption with backdoors,” Durov wrote.

He stressed: “Unlike some competitors, we don’t trade privacy for market share.”

Encryption Backdoors Are Security Threats

Durov warned that backdoors can be abused by bad actors — not just law enforcement.

“It’s technically impossible to guarantee that only the police can access a backdoor,” he stated.

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Moreover, such regulations would fail to deter criminal activity, as users would simply move to lesser-known apps and VPNs to remain anonymous.

No Private Messages Ever Disclosed

Durov highlighted that while Telegram may comply with court orders for IP addresses and phone numbers of criminal suspects, it has never disclosed a single private message in its 12-year history.

Despite France rejecting a proposal for hidden access to private messages in March, Durov said “the battle is far from over.”

He pointed to the EU’s “ProtectEU” initiative, which seeks to build technological means for law enforcement to access private data by 2026 — a proposal that privacy advocates claim violates cybersecurity principles.

Durov concluded: “No country is immune to the slow erosion of freedoms. Every day, those freedoms come under attack — and every day, we must defend them.”

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How Do Analysts React to This Situation?

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, states that trade tariffs have not only economic but also strategic consequences. According to Dalio, these tariffs can reduce countries’ dependence on foreign production and capital, and thus prepare for great power conflicts. However, the inflationary effects of these policies should not be ignored. Dalio emphasizes that the rising debt levels of the US are unsustainable and that these imbalances must be remedied.

Cryptocurrency analyst Anthony Pompliano says that the decline in interest rates and the increase in global liquidity could positively affect the value of Bitcoin. Pompliano says that Bitcoin has an 83% correlation with global liquidity, and that cheap money entering the market could make BTC the biggest winner.

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From this perspective, trade wars and economic uncertainties seem to direct investors to decentralized and limited-supply assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is called digital gold and is positioned as a hedge against inflationary pressures and economic fluctuations.

While global economic turmoil and trade wars are shaking trust in traditional financial systems, they are accelerating the adoption of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. While investors are looking for alternative solutions to the weaknesses of the current financial order, the value storage features and independent structure offered by Bitcoin make it an attractive option.

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