Five-Day Inflow Streak Signals Investor Confidence

Bitcoin ETFs posted five straight days of inflows starting June 9, with over $1.3 billion entering the market. According to Farside Investors, Friday alone saw $301 million in net inflows, signaling robust confidence in Bitcoin despite recent shocks.

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While the cryptocurrency briefly dropped 3% following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, it bounced back quickly from $103,000 to hover around $105,000 — reflecting market resilience under pressure.

Falling Dollar Boosts Bitcoin’s Outlook

Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau emphasized the macroeconomic view: “It’s not geopolitics, but the U.S. dollar index (DXY) that truly drives Bitcoin. With DXY falling below 100 — a three-year low — Bitcoin stands to benefit.”

Still, the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, could trigger short-term price shocks across risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

New Highs on the Horizon?

Despite global uncertainty, Bitcoin is trading just 6% below its all-time high of $112,000, reached on May 22. This resilience has analysts predicting that a breakout could be imminent.

As macroeconomic instability grows and trust in traditional finance weakens, capped-supply assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly attractive to both retail and institutional investors.

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IBIT Leads BTC ETF Inflows  

According to Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $319 million in inflows on Wednesday, with IBIT leading at $223 million. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin ETF (BTC) each contributed $35 million. Since mid-April, IBIT has dominated U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows, setting the stage for a new peak as Bitcoin trades around $103,000.  

Long-Term BTC Investor Cost Basis Rises  

Glassnode reports that BTC Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized price has climbed to $45,340, indicating coins bought between $90,000-$100,000 are transitioning to long-term status. The rising cost basis highlights investor maturity. Analyst Miles Deutscher noted the current rally is driven by spot buying, with giants like BlackRock Bitcoin ETF contributing significantly.  

BTC is currently trading at $102,388, up 1.2%. However, daily trading volume dropped 10% to $44.5 billion. Analyst Ali Martinez suggests a potential pullback to $100,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, analyst Captan Faibik identified a rising triangle pattern on the hourly chart, suggesting BTC could test the $104,900 resistance. Breaking this level could lead to new all-time highs.  

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF’s leadership underscores how institutional demand is powering the rally. IBIT’s 628,000 BTC in assets reflects strong investor confidence. If BTC breaks the $104,900 resistance, it could reach an all-time high. Investors are closely monitoring these developments.  

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According to Farside Investors, no movement was observed in any Ethereum ETFs, including major funds like BlackRock’s ETHA ETF and Grayscale’s ETHE. The total net asset value of Ethereum ETFs stood at $6.308 billion, with a market value ratio of 2.89%. In contrast, the $425.5 million net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs on the same day highlighted Ethereum’s stagnation. Analysts believe innovations like SEC approval for staking could break this lull. 

Which Funds Stood Out in Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows? 

BlackRock’s IBIT ETF outshone competitors with $531.2 million in inflows. However, Fidelity’s FBTC ETF saw $57.8 million in outflows, Bitwise’s BITB lost $22.7 million, and Grayscale’s GBTC recorded $16.4 million in outflows. Additionally, ARKB lost $6.1 million, and EZBC saw $2.7 million in outflows. These movements indicate a selective approach by investors. Glassnode’s data confirmed a 12,000 BTC exchange inflow, signaling active participation by major players. 

Trading volumes for BTC/USD and BTC/USDT pairs on Binance and Coinbase surged by $1.2 billion. Institutional buying clearly supported prices. Moreover, the Bitcoin ETF net inflow trend is fostering optimism in the market. Analysts predict that IBIT’s leadership will continue, with other funds potentially recovering. Investors can monitor ETF flows to anticipate short-term price movements. 

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Institutional Investors Remain Cautious

According to Farside Investors, the outflows reflect institutional investors’ cautious stance toward Trump’s executive order signed on March 6, which established a national Bitcoin reserve but did not mandate direct Bitcoin purchases. This disappointed the market.

Alvin Kan, COO of Bitget Wallet, stated, “While Trump’s order acknowledges crypto’s role in global finance, the lack of fresh purchases disappointed investors.”

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Key Details

On March 6, Trump signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a digital asset stockpile. Initially, these reserves will include assets seized by law enforcement and through legal proceedings.

On March 7, Bitcoin’s price dropped over 2%, according to Google Finance data. Additionally, CME data showed more than a 2% decline in Bitcoin futures contracts.

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Bitcoin is facing a tough battle for support, as the bull market has paused due to macroeconomic concerns.

The price of Bitcoin has lost over $12,000 in just two days, and now cryptocurrency investors and analysts are starting to target lower levels.

BTC Price Analysis: $90,000 is Not the “Bottom” Point

Bitcoin dropped to $96,000 on December 19, causing panic among both individual and institutional investors.

According to CoinGlass data, as of December 20, total crypto liquidations in the last 24 hours reached nearly $900 million.

Total Liquidations Chart

According to data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced their largest net outflow to date, totaling $679 million.

US Spot Bitcoin ETF Netflows

While this drop has, in a way, relieved some excessive speculation, long-term market participants are worried that worse may be ahead.

Among them is X commentator BitQuant, known for his long-term optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, who frequently predicted that Bitcoin would reach $95,000 before breaking its previous all-time high set in March of this year.

In his recent posts, BitQuant stated that it is likely for BTC/USD to make a deeper bottom, and the drop to $90,000 earlier this month was not the bottom.

“Sorry, but no, $90,000 was not the bottom,” he replied to another user who asked about the potential turning point for the market.

In a chart published on December 10, using Elliott Wave Theory, the price of BTC was projected to drop to the mid-$80,000s in the next downturn.

“For those not planning to buy in the next dip, I advise you to step away from the charts and enjoy life until the rocket refuels for the next moon trip,” he added in the accompanying comment to this forecast.

BTC/USD 4 Hour Chart

Lower targets are coming from the on-chain data platform Whalemap.

After the recent drop, the Whalemap team analyzed large accumulation areas by major investors and identified an area of interest that is about 30% below the current spot prices.

“The Onchain Volume Profile shows significant Bitcoin accumulation between $60,000 and $67,000. And a new accumulation range is forming at the current price levels,” they wrote on X.

“For long-term HODLers – the risk-reward ratio is well-defined on a macro scale – a drop below $60,000 is not expected in the near future.”

BTC/USD 4 Hour Chart

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies Rank Among “Extremely Vulnerable” Assets

Changes in US macro policies have put a halt to the widespread rally in risk assets, which observers are increasingly finding irrational.

The Federal Reserve triggered this reversal by lowering its rate-cut expectations for 2025, due to rising inflation indicators.

QCP Capital:

“While it is easy to link the wave of selling to the Fed’s hawkish rate cut stance, the fundamental reason for this morning’s crash is the market’s overly optimistic positioning.”

“Since the election, risk assets have experienced a one-sided, impressive rally, which has left the market extremely vulnerable to any shocks.”

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Leading the field, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) achieved a significant net inflow of $110.4 million, therefore displaying great investor confidence. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) barely gained $2.8 million after IBIT.

After two days of flat flows, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw a notable net outflow of $53.9 million. Comparably, the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) declared a loss of $6 million, thereby balancing about half of the profits of the day. BITB had kept a five-day inflow run before this.

Prominent crypto analyst DustyBC Crypto said on X that Bitcoin ETFs have unequivocally disproved current questions about their influence and viability in the market. Veteran trader and analyst Peter Brandt presented a wary view, nevertheless. Though he expressed appreciation for Bitcoin’s recent price increase, he underlined the continuous pattern of lower highs and lower lows, pointing out that this tendency continues even with the enthusiasm over ETFs and the approaching halving.

Bitcoin is trading at $64,956.09 as of July 18, 2024, down 1% over last 24 hours. With daily trade volume of $30.2 billion and a market value of over $1.21 trillion, Bitcoin is.

On July 17, other Bitcoin ETFs—those from Ark Invest, VanEck, Valkyrie, Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, Hashdex, Invesco, Galaxy—did not report any flows. Furthermore per statistics from July 16, 2024 WisdomTree Bitcoin Fund (BTCW) and Hashdex Bitcoin ETF (DEFI) have not witnessed any inflows or outflows for a lengthy time.

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