With this decline, the data to come from the US has gained even more importance. Expectations are for core monthly CPI to increase by 0.2 percent (previous 0.2%), annual CPI to increase by 2.5 percent (previous 2.9%), monthly CPI to increase by 0.2 percent (previous 0.2%). Bitcoin may close bullish candles after the decrease in inflation and the increase in hot money as a result of meeting expectations. A volatile market will be waiting for us after the data is announced. Investors need to be careful during this period.

Looking at Bitcoin Before the Data

When we look at Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart before the Fed data, we see that it could not maintain the levels it gained yesterday.

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin has fallen by 1.7 percent in the last 24 hours. The positive Fed data may be a factor in Bitcoin regaining the $57-58 thousand region.

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Fed fell silent before the interesting announcement on December 14, focusing on Powell’s speech at Spelman College on Saturday. Powell’s words were of a nature to eliminate uncertainties about economic policies. Here are some notable statements from Powell’s speech:

• The Fed is ready to tighten more if necessary.
• It’s too early for policy relaxation, there is no room for speculation.
• FOMC is exhibiting a careful approach as risks are balanced.
• Significant progress has been made in the fight against inflation.
• An interest rate hike option is open to reduce inflation.
• It’s too early to say whether the monetary policy is restrictive.
• Core inflation is high, it needs to be reduced.
• The Fed has maintained its credibility in fighting inflation.
• US fiscal policy is unsustainable in the long term.
• The policy rate is in the restrictive zone.
• Economic uncertainty is “unusually high.”

Among the points, Powell emphasized are key issues such as inflation, interest rate policy, and economic uncertainty. These words provide an important guide to understanding the Fed’s policy approach and economic forecasts.

Recent economic data show that economic momentum slowed in the fourth quarter, the labor market cooled, and inflation slowed. This situation has created a disagreement among markets and Fed officials on economic forecasts.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the interest rate being kept constant as a result of the meeting was measured as 96.1%. However, Powell’s speech and the subsequent roundtable meeting will be decisive in how this rate will shape up. This uncertainty in the economic outlook between investors and policymakers is closely followed in financial markets.

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The eyes and ears of the global economic circles and investors in the crypto markets were on the FED members convening today. The institution announced the interest rate decision following the meeting.

The FED kept the interest rates unchanged. This marks the second time during the 15-month interest rate increase period that the interest rates have remained steady. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continued its sideways movement.

In its statement regarding the decision, the FED stated, “Recent indicators show that the economy is growing steadily. Job growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, but inflation remains above the desired level.”

“The U.S. banking system is strong and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for individuals and businesses can affect economic activity, employment, and inflation, but the extent of their impact is uncertain. The Committee closely monitors inflation-related risks,” the statement added.

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Market Reactions and Bitcoin Price Post Powell’s Speech

“We are fully focused on our goals of price stability and full employment. We transitioned from a very tight monetary policy from the last year to this year. In the upcoming period, we will carefully assess and, if necessary, continue the tight policy,” the statement continued.

“Our tightening of employment conditions continues despite some loosening. Our policy to reduce inflation to 2% remains in effect, a goal we have had for a long time. We are aware of the adverse effects of inflation on people,” it added.

“The Committee’s goal is to achieve full employment in the long term and bring inflation to approximately 2%.”

Following the Fed’s interest rate decision, the markets indicate a 70% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the November 1, 2023, interest meeting.

After Powell’s speech, the price of Bitcoin is trading around $26,900.

Inflation forecasts by FED officials for the years:

• End of 2023: 3.3%
• End of 2024: 2.5%
• End of 2025: 2.2%

Highlights from Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech:

• “We are ready to increase interest rates further when appropriate.”
• “We may consider another increase in interest rates until we achieve the correct monetary policy.”
• “We are aware of the challenges posed by inflation.”
• “Our current policy stance is restrictive.”
• “We aim to bring inflation to 2% over time with sufficiently restrictive and tightening policies.”
• “We are ready to increase interest rates if deemed necessary.”
• “The decision to keep interest rates unchanged does not mean we have reached the desired policy stance.”
• “A majority of policymakers believe another interest rate hike might be more appropriate.”
• “We need convincing data to reach the end of interest rate hikes.”
• “We are very close to reaching our desired target.”
• “The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability.”
• “The growth has been stronger than expected.”
• “We expect a decline in consumer spending.”
• “If the economy is stronger than expected, the Fed must do more.”
• “We are monitoring short-term movements in energy prices.”

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