Rising geopolitical risks are complicating the picture further. Messages from Iran regarding the Hormuz Strait have heightened perceived energy risks. At this point, investors are closely watching both energy prices and today’s critical U.S. inflation data.

Oil Price Rally Pressures Gold

On Friday morning, spot gold traded around $5,112 per ounce, gaining roughly 0.7% intraday. April U.S. gold futures saw a slight decline, settling at $5,116.

The drop in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield could provide some support for non-yielding gold. Nevertheless, weekly performance shows more than a 1% decline. The key driver remains energy prices: the return of oil toward $100 raises expectations for renewed inflation pressure in the U.S. In market terms, as oil rises, the likelihood of Fed rate cuts gets delayed.

Hormuz Strait Tensions Ignite Energy Market

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated this week. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said Tehran could use the strategic Hormuz Strait as leverage against the U.S. and Israel.

This statement triggered immediate reactions in the energy market. Attacks on Gulf oil tankers and stern warnings from Iran have undermined hopes that the conflict would ease quickly. Brent crude neared the $100 mark again, reviving global energy supply concerns and directly influencing inflation expectations.

Eyes on Fed Decision and PCE Inflation Data

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump again called on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. Market expectations, however, point elsewhere.

According to CME FedWatch, investors anticipate the Fed will keep rates in the 3.5–3.75% range at its two-day meeting ending March 18.

The main focus for markets is today’s release of the U.S. January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, this data could reshape expectations for the central bank’s interest rate path.

On the metals front, gains were modestly positive. Spot silver rose 1% to $84.59 per ounce. Platinum gained 1.2% to $2,157, while palladium increased 1.1% to $1,636 per ounce.

Energy prices saw a small pullback. The U.S. issued 30-day licenses allowing countries to purchase stranded Russian crude and petroleum products, slightly easing prices. Brent remained around $99.8, and WTI crude stayed near $95 per barrel.

Why Is Gold Falling?
Rising oil prices increase inflation risks, weakening expectations for a Fed rate cut. Higher interest rate expectations typically place downward pressure on gold prices.

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FED Expectations 

In light of recent inflation and employment data, the markets had been receiving strong signals that the FED might hold rates steady at this meeting. These expectations were confirmed. The current rate was 4.50%, and the announced rate remained unchanged in line with forecasts. 

FED Chair Jerome Powell is set to hold a press conference following the decision. While reaffirming the commitment to combating inflation, Powell also provided significant signals regarding the upcoming period. According to the Fed’s calendar, the next FOMC meeting will be held on July 29-30. Following the decision, Bitcoin was trading at $104,400. Brent Crude hovered around $76.45 per barrel. 

Global Impact and Future Expectations 

The FED’s interest rate decision affects not just the US but the entire global economy. Additionally, today the Euro Area’s Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced at 1.9% (Forecast: 1.9%, Previous: 2.2%). While volatility increased in European and Asian markets following the decision, investors will closely follow upcoming economic data and guidance from FED officials. Market fluctuations may continue until the next FED meeting. In particular, inflation and unemployment data will become even more critical during this period. 

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In his recent remarks targeting Powell, Trump said:

• “Powell is not a smart person. The Fed should cut interest rates.”
• “There probably won’t be a rate cut decision today.”
• “Interest rates should be at least two and a half points lower right now.”
• “Powell is doing a poor job.”
• “Can I appoint myself to the Fed? I’d do a much better job.”

Trump’s comments once again highlight the increasing political pressure on the Fed ahead of a potential interest rate decision.

Trump vs. the Fed: Tensions Continue to Escalate

Trump argued that lowering interest rates would reduce borrowing costs and accused Powell of failing in his role. While Trump has previously criticized Powell on multiple occasions, this time he took it a step further by asking, “Can I make myself Fed Chair?” — a statement that drew widespread attention.

Markets Remain Calm But On Edge Ahead of Fed Decision

Despite Trump’s sharp tone, the markets have remained relatively calm for now. However, such statements continue to raise questions among investors about the independence of the Fed. With the interest rate decision expected today, all eyes are once again on Powell.

Trump’s latest remarks clearly signal the mounting political pressure on the Fed. While markets have not reacted strongly yet, these statements could influence the central bank’s future interest rate policies.

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Monday: Focus on Central Banks and Crypto World 

The new week begins with the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision. Statements from BoJ could directly affect global risk appetite. Especially if a quantitative easing announcement is made, interest in risky assets is expected to increase. On the crypto front, announcements from Kadena (KDA) and EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) will be important for followers of these ecosystems. 

Read: Major Token Unlocks Set to Impact Crypto Market: June 16–22, 2025

Tuesday: Starknet Staking V2 Goes Live 

All eyes in the crypto world will be on Starknet (STRK) on Tuesday. The launch of Starknet Staking V2 on the mainnet may create new opportunities for STRK holders and boost activity within the project’s ecosystem. 

Important Binance Announcement: 
Also on Tuesday, Binance will delist some margin trading pairs starting from June 18, 2025,06:00 UTC. This means investors trading these pairs will need to review their positions. 

• Delisted Cross Margin Pairs:
  MOVE/BTC
  ONE/BTC
  RUNE/FDUSD
  TFUEL/BTC
  TNSR/FDUSD
  USUAL/FDUSD 
• Delisted Isolated Margin Pairs:
  ONE/BTC
  TFUEL/BTC
  TNSR/FDUSD
  USUAL/FDUSD 

Wednesday: Inflation and FED Decision Will Shape Markets 

Wednesday will be one of the busiest days on the global economic calendar. The Eurozone annual inflation data will be released (expected 1.9%, previous 2.2%). This data is an important signal for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) future monetary policy moves. 

In the evening, all eyes will be on the US as the Federal Reserve (FED) announces its interest rate decision (expected 4.5%, previous 4.5%). Besides the rate decision, FED Chair Jerome Powell’s statements will be decisive for the market direction. Whether Powell adopts a hawkish or dovish tone will directly affect the dollar and other assets. 

Thursday: US Markets Closed, TCMB Decision 

US stock markets will be closed on Thursday due to a public holiday. This may cause reduced trading volumes and lower volatility globally. In Turkey, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will announce its interest rate decision (expected 46%, previous 46%). The decision and guidance will be critical for the Turkish Lira and Turkish assets. 

Friday: Crypto Token Burn and Quadruple Witching 

On the last trading day of the week, there will be another announcement from the crypto world: Reserve Rights (RSR) will conduct a token burn. Token burns generally reduce circulating supply, potentially increasing token value. 

Also on Friday, the US markets will experience “Quadruple Witching.” This term refers to the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. It often leads to high volumes and volatility, causing sudden market moves. 

This week, alongside global economic data, central bank decisions and significant developments in the crypto ecosystem will remain on investors’ radar. Especially FED statements, European inflation data, and Binance’s margin pair decisions may increase market volatility. It is highly important for investors to closely monitor these developments and adjust their risk management accordingly. 

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Core Inflation and Fed Interest Rate Expectations  

Federal Reserve officials and market participants are closely monitoring the impact of this inflation increase on interest rate policies. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have previously indicated that they may delay rate cuts if inflation remains higher than expected. For instance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated, “Controlling inflation remains our priority.”  

Following May’s data, the likelihood of a rate cut in June has significantly diminished. According to the Kalshi prediction platform, rate cut expectations have dropped sharply. This shift has affected investors’ risk appetite, causing new volatility in financial assets.  

Liquidity and Inflation Reaction in Crypto Markets  

Global liquidity growth has fueled gains in cryptocurrency markets. Experts note that Bitcoin rose 4% to $110,000, moving in sync with the increase in M2 money supply. Other cryptos like Ethereum and Solana also saw similar gains. Analysts highlight that Bitcoin tends to follow changes in M2 money supply within a 71-day cycle.  

Investors eagerly await the June 11 CPI report. This data will reveal whether inflation is persistent and what path the Fed will take. Markets expect interest rates to remain around 425-450 basis points. However, inflation continues to rise. In this environment, the Fed prefers to wait before cutting rates. Federal Reserve officials, especially Chair Jerome Powell and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, have indicated they would not consider rate cuts if inflation becomes persistent.  

Traditional assets such as bonds and stocks could remain pressured due to inflation. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies continue to benefit from increased global liquidity, deepening the divergence between markets.  

In summary, today’s US CPI report will be the most critical data guiding the markets.  

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Markets Expect a Rate Cut: Powell and Trump Face Off

While concerns about a recession have increased following the new tariffs announced by the Trump administration, investors have begun to think that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates earlier. The activity experienced in bond markets in particular clearly shows that expectations for the growth outlook have weakened.

As bond yields fall, investors are focusing on the possibility of a rate cut rather than growth. The 10-year US bond yield fell below 4%, supporting expectations in this direction.

US President Donald Trump made a clear call to Fed Chair Jerome Powell:

“The Fed is taking it slow, it should lower interest rates! Now is the perfect time to lower interest rates.”

However, Powell is cautious about these calls.

The increased uncertainty due to new tariffs creates dual risks such as rising inflation and slowing growth. According to Powell:

• “The impact of tariffs could be greater than expected and have lasting effects on inflation.”

• “The Fed’s job is to prevent these price increases from turning into permanent inflation.”

• “It’s too early to determine the appropriate direction for monetary policy.”

Powell stated that the Fed will guide its policy with clear data and said, “People expect the Fed to tell the truth, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do.”

However, according to Trump, Powell has always been “a latecomer to a rate cut” and that action should be taken more quickly when the economy is so fragile.

However, expectations for a rate cut are rapidly increasing in the markets. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, markets are pricing in an 85% probability of more than three rate cuts by the end of the year. This means an increase well above last week’s expectations. In particular, a rate cut in June stands out as the strongest possibility with a 70% probability. There is a 30% cut expected for the May meeting.

Powell said in his latest statement, “The current uncertainty is likely to continue. It’s the right time to step back and wait for the water to calm down.” He also added that the impact of Trump’s policies will be clearer in a year.

However, experts believe that the economic slowdown triggered by tariffs could force the Fed to cut interest rates. This would be an unconventional policy choice, especially when inflation is still high.

Trump is pushing for a rate cut, while Powell is determined to tread carefully. However, the market is certain that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates to support economic growth.

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News of a presidential candidate’s first Bitcoin buy strengthens this positive attitude even more. With Solana (SOL) leading gains at 6%, followed by BNB Chain’s BNB, XRP, and Cardano’s ADA all rising by up to 4.5%, the larger Bitcoin market also jumped. Memecoins SHIB and DOGE also posted 4%.

Related: Fed Interest Rate Announced! How Will the New Rate Affect the Economy?

Fed’s Rate Cut Expectations Fuel Market Optimism

The Federal Reserve’s choice to possibly cut interest rates by 50 basis points has inspired hope in digital assets as well as other financial sectors. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projects two more rate reductions by year-end, therefore supporting the belief that more relaxed monetary policy would drive demand for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Reflecting on the forthcoming reduction, Fed members have changed their economic view to predict benchmark interest rates to land at 4.4% by the end of the year. As inflationary concerns fade and speculative investments take hold, this has translated into fresh investor confidence in digital assets—especially Bitcoin.

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Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data showed the U.S. economy added 272,000 jobs in May; this was much higher than the estimated 185,000 and the downwardly revised 165,000 in April. The unemployment rate rose to 4%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, above the 0.3% increase expected. This is considered the sticky inflation component.

Markets downgraded the odds of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in September from 85% to 60%, pushing risky assets including cryptocurrencies lower. While JPMorgan and Citi canceled their Fed rate cut forecasts for July, some observers brought interest rate hikes or additional liquidity tightening back to the agenda. According to CoinDesk data, Bitcoin, which seemed ready for a break above $72,000, fell nearly 3% to $68,400. Ether and the CoinDesk 20 index also followed Bitcoin.

QCP Capital noted that the Fed will have a hard time keeping interest rates high while other central banks are lowering borrowing costs. “The strong upside surprise in NFP (non-farm employment) at 182K versus 272K came on the back of higher unemployment rates (3.9% to 4.0%),” the firm said. “This could trigger a de-risking ahead of US inflation numbers and the FOMC.” “It was confusing enough for me,” he said.

QCP Capital stated that they believe the markets will start pricing in at least one Fed interest rate cut from here and added: “It will be difficult for the US to ignore this as the rest of the world continues to reduce interest rates.”

Last week the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, starting a G7 easing cycle of sorts. The number of central banks whose recent moves have been interest rate cuts has increased this year, according to MacroMicro.

Other central banks, including the Fed, may soon engage in reciprocal rate cuts (often called currency wars). This strategy could increase demand for alternative investments such as cryptocurrencies as part of managing rising public debt. “In this decline, we have seen bullish flows, including aggressive put sellers and call spread buyers, particularly on BTC,” QCP said.

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Understanding the Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Inflation

How to Control Inflation Amidst US GDP Growth

The post What is the Federal Reserve’s Economic Plan for Interest Rates? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The eyes and ears of the global economic circles and investors in the crypto markets were on the FED members convening today. The institution announced the interest rate decision following the meeting.

The FED kept the interest rates unchanged. This marks the second time during the 15-month interest rate increase period that the interest rates have remained steady. Bitcoin, on the other hand, continued its sideways movement.

In its statement regarding the decision, the FED stated, “Recent indicators show that the economy is growing steadily. Job growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, but inflation remains above the desired level.”

“The U.S. banking system is strong and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for individuals and businesses can affect economic activity, employment, and inflation, but the extent of their impact is uncertain. The Committee closely monitors inflation-related risks,” the statement added.

You might like: Ripple CTO: XRP Potential as Global Reserve Currency

Market Reactions and Bitcoin Price Post Powell’s Speech

“We are fully focused on our goals of price stability and full employment. We transitioned from a very tight monetary policy from the last year to this year. In the upcoming period, we will carefully assess and, if necessary, continue the tight policy,” the statement continued.

“Our tightening of employment conditions continues despite some loosening. Our policy to reduce inflation to 2% remains in effect, a goal we have had for a long time. We are aware of the adverse effects of inflation on people,” it added.

“The Committee’s goal is to achieve full employment in the long term and bring inflation to approximately 2%.”

Following the Fed’s interest rate decision, the markets indicate a 70% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the November 1, 2023, interest meeting.

After Powell’s speech, the price of Bitcoin is trading around $26,900.

Inflation forecasts by FED officials for the years:

• End of 2023: 3.3%
• End of 2024: 2.5%
• End of 2025: 2.2%

Highlights from Fed Chairman Powell’s Speech:

• “We are ready to increase interest rates further when appropriate.”
• “We may consider another increase in interest rates until we achieve the correct monetary policy.”
• “We are aware of the challenges posed by inflation.”
• “Our current policy stance is restrictive.”
• “We aim to bring inflation to 2% over time with sufficiently restrictive and tightening policies.”
• “We are ready to increase interest rates if deemed necessary.”
• “The decision to keep interest rates unchanged does not mean we have reached the desired policy stance.”
• “A majority of policymakers believe another interest rate hike might be more appropriate.”
• “We need convincing data to reach the end of interest rate hikes.”
• “We are very close to reaching our desired target.”
• “The worst thing we can do is to fail to restore price stability.”
• “The growth has been stronger than expected.”
• “We expect a decline in consumer spending.”
• “If the economy is stronger than expected, the Fed must do more.”
• “We are monitoring short-term movements in energy prices.”

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