Some assets remain calm, others shift direction on a single headline. This week’s numbers could push the expected rate path further out than many anticipate.

Why Crypto Still Feels Cautious

Why can’t cryptocurrencies gain upside momentum? The answer isn’t found only in charts or whale activity. This week’s incoming data wave is reshaping macro expectations and once again putting the long-discussed rally narrative to the test. Even a small deviation in the PCE print could shelve the rate-cut timeline. That’s why understanding why markets may be forced to accept a “higher for longer” scenario is becoming increasingly critical.

Banks See Sticky Inflation

Major banks still don’t see a comforting picture in core PCE. Goldman Sachs points to core PCE tracking near 3% year over year — a level that keeps distance from the Fed’s 2% target.

Bank of America echoes that view, flagging near-term inflation stickiness. The shared takeaway is clear: without convincing cooling, policymakers are unlikely to move quickly. That keeps the risk of delayed rate cuts firmly on the table.

Why Rate-Cut Hopes Are Slipping

It’s not just inflation making markets uneasy — the legal front is tense as well. A true data deluge lies ahead. The PCE price index and Fed minutes will offer clues on disinflation momentum, while the Supreme Court of the United States is expected to deliver a key ruling tied to Trump-era tariffs.

That case adds another layer of uncertainty to trade policy. If the Court narrows presidential authority, pressure on import costs could ease over time — though any inflation impact would likely take longer to surface.

The Number Markets Are Stuck On

Persistently elevated core PCE reinforces the “higher for longer” narrative. Financial conditions have become increasingly sensitive to every incremental data point. On the trade side, the future of tariffs remains pivotal, especially for sectors already operating under cost pressure.

Some economists push back on claims that rolling back emergency tariffs would trigger economic disaster. Instead, many argue that businesses are already grappling with high input costs — and that uncertainty itself has become a separate burden.

With the macro calendar packed, crypto markets remain fragile. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was fluctuating around the $69,000 level, with volatility staying elevated. Risk sentiment from traditional markets continues to spill directly into digital assets.

If rate-cut expectations slide further, pressure on risk assets could intensify in the short term. That’s why investors are watching Fed minutes and PCE not just for bonds and equities — but for crypto direction as well.

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The post Why Isn’t Crypto Rising? Fed Minutes and PCE Hold the Key appeared first on Coin Engineer.

A Period of Fine-Tuning in Monetary Policy

Some Fed officials emphasized that decisions around interest rate cuts require careful calibration. According to the discussion, additional easing could be appropriate if inflation continues to decline in line with expectations. However, other members argued that following the most recent rate reduction in December, holding rates steady for a period would be a more prudent approach.

There was broader agreement that transitioning toward a more neutral policy stance could help prevent unnecessary strain in the labor market. Rather than aggressive easing, the Fed appears focused on balancing inflation control with economic stability.

The Fed Policy Path Heading Into 2026

Throughout 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts, bringing the benchmark interest rate down to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Despite this, current projections indicate that only one additional rate cut may take place in 2026. If realized, this would keep interest rates near their highest levels seen since the global financial crisis.

The December 2025 dot plot highlighted the extent of division among policymakers. An equal number of officials projected zero, one, or two rate cuts, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the policy outlook. Median forecasts suggest rates could settle around 3.4% by the end of 2026, reinforcing expectations of limited easing.

Possible Scenarios for 2026

Market participants expect the Fed to maintain a cautious tone in the early months of 2026. The likelihood of a rate cut at the January meeting is considered low, while expectations increase for potential action in March. Some analysts believe two cuts remain possible, particularly if labor market conditions soften further.

In a more optimistic scenario, declining inflation combined with rising unemployment could prompt the Fed to adopt a more accommodative stance. Such a shift would likely inject additional liquidity into markets, benefiting risk-oriented assets. Conversely, a resurgence in inflation could force policymakers to pause rate cuts altogether, potentially triggering sharp corrections across both equity and crypto markets.

What This Means for Bitcoin and Crypto

Lower interest rates typically encourage investors to move toward higher-risk assets as returns on bonds and cash instruments decline. As a result, the Fed’s decisions in 2026 will play a crucial role in shaping demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Although expectations for aggressive easing have moderated, changes in economic data or leadership at the Fed could still alter the policy trajectory, creating new opportunities for crypto markets.

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The post Fed Minutes Released: What the Road Ahead Looks Like appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Tuesday, August 19

1inch ($1INCH) will make an important announcement. 

Wednesday, August 20

Eurozone Annual Inflation (CPI) will be released – 12:00 

Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 2.0% 

Fed FOMC Meeting Minutes will be published – 21:00 

Thursday, August 21

The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, one of the most critical global economic events, will begin. 

Central bank governors and economists from around the world will discuss global economy and monetary policies for three days. Statements from Jackson Hole may lead crypto investors to reassess their positions. 

At 15:30, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims will be released. 

Forecast: 227K | Previous: 224K 

Friday, August 22

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech at 17:00. 

Markets and crypto investors will closely monitor Powell’s remarks. 

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post August 19–22: Key Market & Crypto Events appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Pre-Data Expectations and Analysis

Prior to the data release, analysts had predicted that inflation could come in slightly higher than expected and could lead to market volatility. Alex Kuptsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, warned of a potential volatility explosion following the release of the US consumer price index on Wednesday.

Fed Minutes to be Released

The Fed minutes will be released tonight at 9 PM (UTC+3). These minutes will provide investors with insights into the Federal Reserve’s views on inflation and monetary policy.

The post Highly Anticipated US Inflation Data Released: Bitcoin and Market Reaction appeared first on Coin Engineer.