Glassnode reports show that investors continue to favor high-risk positions despite rising inflation concerns in the U.S. While BTC-ETH open interest is converging, leveraged traders are showing strong preference for ETH. Bitcoin’s spot dominance stands at 59.42%, while Ethereum is at 13.62%. However, in open interest, the gap narrows: Bitcoin holds 56.7%, ETH 43.3%. This indicates Ethereum’s growing prominence among risk-seeking investors. 

ETH’s Market Position and Trading Volume 

The surge in Ethereum’s futures volume reflects strong investor interest in the altcoin sector. Additionally, ETH’s share of perpetual futures hit a record high, proving investors are willing to take more risks. This trend could translate into short-term price performance for Ethereum. 

Glassnode notes that although Bitcoin recently reached all-time highs, Ethereum largely guided market direction. As a result, ETH’s open interest dominance increased, and investors maintained a bullish outlook. Furthermore, Fed decisions on interest rates directly influence ETH’s potential to outperform BTC. If Jerome Powell signals a move toward rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting, Ethereum is expected to rise faster. 

In conclusion, ETH’s record open interest in futures demonstrates growing investor attention and hints at a potential altcoin season. Moreover, current market trends position Ethereum as a key focus for crypto traders in the near term. 

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The data came slightly below expectations, indicating that the US labor market continues to show strength. Thus, unemployment claims have decreased for the second consecutive week. 

Why Are US Unemployment Claims Important? 

This weekly data shows the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. It is considered a key indicator of labor market health. A decrease in claims suggests fewer layoffs and a resilient employment market. 

Details of This Week’s Data: 

• Expectation: 236K 
• Previous: 233K 
• Actual: 227K 

What Does This Mean for Fed Policies? 

The lower-than-expected US unemployment claims strengthen the likelihood that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policies. The labor market’s resilience signals ongoing economic growth and may support the Fed’s decision to pause or slow down interest rate hikes. 

On the other hand, the decline in unemployment raises the risk of continued inflationary pressures, so the Fed may remain cautious. Therefore, these data will be an important factor influencing the direction of monetary policy in upcoming Fed meetings. 

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According to the documents, all participants agreed that maintaining the current 4.25–4.50% target range was appropriate. However, opinions differed on when a cut should occur. A few members are ready to consider a rate cut at the July meeting. Meanwhile, some officials highlighted inflation risks and economic resilience as reasons why a cut this year may not be suitable. 

Committee members will base their decisions on incoming inflation data. Inflation driven by Trump tariffs is seen by many as temporary or modest. The Fed also noted that several members remain open to a potential rate cut in upcoming meetings. 

Neutral Rate Still in Focus 

Another key highlight from the minutes: some members said the current federal funds rate might not be significantly above the neutral level. This suggests the policy stance may not be restrictive and could signal a possible early cut. 

This divide will significantly shape the path toward the July 29–30 Fed meeting. If data comes in line with expectations, one group may support a cut while others may hold back. Inflation pressure and labor market performance will be decisive. 

In conclusion, the minutes signal an open door to a rate cut in July, but also a strong bloc resisting a move this year. This confirms the Fed’s cautious, data-driven approach. 

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