Bitcoin Tests $112,000 Resistance

BTC surpassed the critical $112,000 resistance level, maintaining its short-term bullish trend. Investors are targeting new local highs. Analysts note that a clean close above $112,000 could support a move toward $123,000.

Fed Rate Cut and Risk Assets

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% at its October 29 meeting. This expectation is supporting investors’ appetite for risk assets. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in the upcoming meeting is above 98%.

Globally, 82% of central banks have cut rates in the past six months, the highest level since 2020. This indicates accelerated global monetary expansion and growing liquidity and investor interest in markets.

Investor Expectations and New Highs

Analysts suggest that if BTC surpasses the $113,000 short-term cost base, the $130,000–$144,000 target range could come into focus. Weekly closures usually see heightened volatility, supporting short-term price action.

• BTC tested the $112,000 resistance level

• Investors aim for new local highs

• Fed rate cut boosts risk asset markets

• Closing above $113,000 supports $130,000–$144,000 targets

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The post Fed Rate Cut Odds Exceed 98%, Bitcoin Surges Toward $112K appeared first on Coin Engineer.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting has risen to 90.1%. Earlier in the day, this probability was calculated at 89.1%. This indicates that expectations have strengthened significantly during the day. 

In contrast, the probability assigned by investors to rates being held steady is just 5.6%, showing how clearly the market is positioned for a rate cut. 

Trump and the Fed Chairmanship: Another Factor Behind the Rate Cut Expectation 

Meanwhile, another factor boosting the probability of a rate cut is Trump’s plan to appoint a new Fed Chair. President Trump is reportedly planning to replace Adriana Kugler, whose term is ending, with someone who favors rate cuts. Kugler has consistently voted against rate cuts throughout 2025. If she remains on the board until the September meeting, she is expected to vote again to keep rates unchanged. 

The Fed has held the policy rate steady at the 4.25%–4.50% range since December 2024. No changes have been made over the last five meetings. However, the July 2025 non-farm payroll report, showing just 73,000 new jobs versus the expected 147,000, triggered a sharp market reaction. This gap has raised concerns about the strength of economic growth. 

BlackRock’s 50 Basis Point Surprise Forecast: Cautious Optimism in Markets 

Moreover, it’s not just a 25 basis point cut that’s on the table—there’s talk of a 50 basis point move. BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder suggested that a more aggressive cut in September is possible. According to Rieder, the Fed may implement two or three more cuts throughout the remainder of the year. 

According to BlackRock’s institutional market outlook, current U.S. economic conditions demand a looser monetary policy. Inflationary pressures and slowing consumer spending further support this expectation. 

Still, the timing and scale of the rate cut remain crucial. Investors are closely watching the Fed’s September decision. The pressure created by weak jobs data will largely shape the outcome. 

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

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