Markets are already pricing in some of this. The dollar index is approaching 98, while Bitcoin and stocks have limited room to move. Major investors appear to be waiting for the data before taking new positions.

Wall Street Banks Expect Limited but Crucial Inflation Increase

JPMorgan forecasts a 0.37% monthly rise in both headline and core PCE. While this seems modest, it translates into a notable annual effect, lifting core PCE to 2.9%. November’s rate was 2.8%.

Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays expect core inflation to rise 0.39–0.40% monthly, with an annual rate around 3%. Goldman Sachs, Citi, and UBS forecast smaller increases, but the overall picture is the same: the downward trend in inflation is slowing.

This is critical because core PCE is a primary reference for the Fed’s monetary policy.

Rate Cut Expectations Are Moving Further Out

If inflation rises as expected, the Fed may remain cautious about rate cuts. Recent strong employment data and resilient economic activity already reduce the likelihood of an early cut.

Futures indicate about a 48% chance of a June rate cut, while most Wall Street institutions see the first cut more likely in July. This adjustment is gradually recalibrating short-term liquidity expectations.

Bitcoin and Global Markets Trade in a Narrow Range

Crypto markets are similarly cautious. Bitcoin traded between $65,637 and $67,456 in the last 24 hours. Price hovering around $67,000 reflects investor caution ahead of macro data.

Trading volume is low, and options expiration is approaching, keeping volatility subdued. After the data, market direction is expected to clarify.

The stronger dollar and delayed rate cut expectations are key factors applying short-term pressure on risk assets, but the outlook is not one-sided.

The Big Question: Is Inflation Rising Again?

The PCE report will provide the first clear answer. If core inflation reaches 2.9%, the Fed may postpone cuts further, delaying liquidity expectations.

Market reaction often reflects uncertainty more than the direction itself. Once clarity arrives, even a neutral or slightly negative outcome could ease tensions.

Micro Data Block

• JPMorgan core PCE forecast: 0.37% (monthly)

• Wall Street forecast range: 0.37–0.40% (monthly)

• Expected annual core PCE: 2.9–3.0%

• Bitcoin 24-hour range: $65,637 – $67,456

• Dollar index: near 98

The US PCE inflation report will shape both the macro outlook and the Fed’s policy path. With major Wall Street banks revising forecasts upward, the slowdown in inflation is showing signs of stalling. Market volatility for Bitcoin, equities, and the dollar may rise immediately after the release. Rate cut timing remains the main driver of risk appetite.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post JPMorgan and BofA Issue Critical PCE Inflation Forecast appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Monday and Tuesday: Crypto Network Upgrades Kick Off

The first two days of the week emphasize technical developments rather than macroeconomic data. On Monday, MegaETH is expected to launch its Frontier mainnet, accelerating the goal of building a high-performance Ethereum-compatible network. On the same day, Enjin Coin will implement the Sentoss upgrade, aiming to increase network capacity and stabilize asset management.

Tuesday, Horizen will officially launch on the Base network, expanding the ecosystem’s accessibility. Blockchain activity is expected to rise during this period. Additionally, the JOLTS job openings data will be released, reflecting hiring trends and potentially influencing market expectations.

Wednesday: FED Decision and Crypto Developments Coincide

Wednesday could see the most significant price movements. The FED will announce its interest rate decision at 22:00, with the expectation at 3.75%, down from the previous 4%. Markets continue to price in a third rate cut. Following the announcement, FED Chair Powell will speak at 22:30, a statement that often determines market volatility.

The same day, Aster will launch its Season 4 buyback program, signaling an increase in token burn rates. Celo will implement the Jello Hardfork, expected to improve network security and transaction consistency. The coincidence of these developments with economic data could accelerate crypto price movements.

Thursday: TCMB Rate, Solana Breakpoint, and Key Legal Decision

On Thursday, the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00, with the expectation at 38.5%, down from the previous 39.5%. The decision may trigger a new directional search in Turkish lira assets. Additionally, the U.S. will release the OPEC monthly report, unemployment claims, and a 30-year bond auction, all of which directly impact the dollar index and risk appetite.

One of the most notable events is the U.S. prosecutors’ announcement regarding the Do Kwon case, where a 12-year prison sentence has been requested. This decision may have a significant psychological effect on sector confidence. Meanwhile, the Solana Breakpoint event begins, a key calendar item watched by investors as it defines the network’s vision.

Key highlights this week:

• MegaETH Frontier mainnet launch

• FED and TCMB interest rate decisions

• Solana Breakpoint event

• Do Kwon case decision

• Celo Jello Hardfork update

The dense schedule of economic data and protocol upgrades could result in high volatility in both crypto and traditional markets. Investors need to closely monitor fundamental factors shaping price movements during this period.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post FED Rate Decision and Crypto Events This Week appeared first on Coin Engineer.

A Rate Cut’s Impact on Crypto Markets

The prospect of a rate cut is a critical development for crypto investors. In particular, major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could become more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment. Analysts emphasize the importance of cautious strategies amidst market volatility. Additionally, hints of an approaching altcoin season suggest broader market activity may be on the horizon.

All Eyes on the Fed

The CME FedWatch tool, which tracks rate expectations via futures prices, has shown a notable rise in the probability of a cut. As of December 2, the odds of the Fed reducing rates to a range of 4.25%-4.5% at its December 17-18 meeting climbed from 66% a week earlier to 74.5%. This surge followed comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who expressed potential support for a rate cut while stressing the decision would hinge on economic data.

Earlier this year, the Fed enacted two consecutive 75 basis-point cuts, bringing rates down to 4.5%-4.75%, marking some of the sharpest reductions in U.S. history. The possibility of a third cut this year is prompting investors to reassess their strategies.

How Will a Rate Cut Affect Markets?

Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, increase liquidity, and boost risk appetite. In traditional markets, this supports stock prices, while in the crypto market, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin become more appealing. Historically, Bitcoin has responded positively to low-interest environments.

In the crypto world, 2023 was marked by significant developments in regulation and market expectations. Former President Donald Trump’s re-election and his pledge for crypto reform spurred market enthusiasm. Bitcoin doubled in value throughout the year, approaching the $100,000 milestone. However, it recently dipped 2% in 24 hours to $95,800.

Fed Officials on Rate Decisions

New York Fed President John Williams has suggested that rates are expected to decline over time but remained noncommittal about a December cut. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated last month that the Fed is not in a hurry to lower rates. Powell is expected to provide further insights in his public address on December 4.

These statements have added to investor uncertainty, and economists remain divided. Some argue that a rate cut would alleviate inflationary pressures, while others warn that such a move could be premature.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Fed Rate Cut Expectations on the Rise! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

With this decline, the data to come from the US has gained even more importance. Expectations are for core monthly CPI to increase by 0.2 percent (previous 0.2%), annual CPI to increase by 2.5 percent (previous 2.9%), monthly CPI to increase by 0.2 percent (previous 0.2%). Bitcoin may close bullish candles after the decrease in inflation and the increase in hot money as a result of meeting expectations. A volatile market will be waiting for us after the data is announced. Investors need to be careful during this period.

Looking at Bitcoin Before the Data

When we look at Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart before the Fed data, we see that it could not maintain the levels it gained yesterday.

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin has fallen by 1.7 percent in the last 24 hours. The positive Fed data may be a factor in Bitcoin regaining the $57-58 thousand region.

You may be interested in: SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s Speech Notes Leaked!

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Markets Await Fed Statements – September 11, 2024 appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Fed Expectations and Possible Moves

Markets expect 161,000 new jobs to be created in nonfarm payrolls data and the unemployment rate to fall to 4.2% (previously 4.3%). This data is expected to be decisive in determining whether the Fed will continue its tight monetary policy.

What Could Happen If Fed Data Comes Below Expectations?

The recent release of lower-than-expected data by the US economy has raised fears of a recession. If the employment data to be released today also falls short of expectations, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting may increase. While the continuation of high interest rates slows down the US economy, weak employment data may necessitate a step back from this tight monetary policy.

Contrary to the 185 thousand new jobs expected in July, only 114 thousand people were employed. This led to the first serious recession concerns in the US. In addition, the unemployment rate was announced as 4.3%, above expectations, reaching its highest level since October 2021.

Signals of a Slowdown in the Economy: Manufacturing and JOLTS Data

Other data released this week also showed that the economy is slowing down. The Manufacturing Industry PMI data and the JOLTS job openings number were well below expectations. The low JOLTS data in particular was welcomed positively by the markets and increased the expectation that the Fed may cut interest rates.

Might interest you: Sakana AI Announces Partnership with Nvidia!

As the Fed closely monitors developments in the labor market, the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut has gained strength following the JOLTS data. Markets are currently pricing in a 45% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18, and a 55% chance of a 25 basis point cut.

This data will directly affect the Fed’s future policy actions and determine the direction of the markets.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Market Focused on Fed Data! September 6, 2024 appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Might interest you: US Inflation Data Signals Potential Fed Rate Cut

FOMC Interest-Rate Decision & Powell’s Speech The crypto market is keenly anticipating the upcoming FOMC event, looking for hints about the Fed’s potential rate cut plans. While the market expects the central bank to maintain its policy rates in the upcoming meeting, there is growing speculation about three rate cuts in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 89% chance the Fed will announce a 25 bps rate cut. in September. Additionally, there are increasing bets on further cuts in November and December, fueled by recent cooling inflation data.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will also be critical. Dovish comments could ignite a market rally, whereas hawkish remarks might temper market enthusiasm. Both the crypto market and the broader financial sector will be closely monitoring Powell’s insights, as they could significantly influence market dynamics.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post FOMC & Jerome Powell’s Speech In Focus Amid Fed’s Rate Cut Talks  appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Reuters’ Fed Rate Survey Reading

The Fed, which started to increase interest rates due to seriously overheating inflation in March 2022, maintained the period of more than 2 letters and started discounts, despite the huge demands of the market. They had predicted 6 to 8 interest rate cuts at the beginning of 2024, but in the face of inflation not falling, they sometimes reduced this number to 2 and sometimes to 0.

You might be interested: Overview Following Ethereum ETF Approval

According to the latest survey of economists by Reuters, one of the world’s largest news agencies, the number of interest rate cuts expected in the second half of 2024 stands out as 2.

The release of pressure on prices, a weakening of the labor force, and a decline in inflation to 3% offer FOMC members “more confidence” in interest rate cuts. In fact, expectations were for an interest rate cut to come in May, or between November or December at the earliest, but the rapid decline in CPI gave the green light for September.

The majority of economists surveyed by Reuters stated that they expected two interest rate cuts this year. All 100 economists who participated in the survey stated that they did not expect a reduction (or increase) from the interest rate decision on July 31. The 82 survey expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September. 15 people stated that they are saving the earliest interest rate cut for November or December. A very small group of 3 people do not expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year.

What Do Experts Think About the Fed Interest Rate Cut?

Jonathan Pingle, chief economist of the US branch of UBS bank, said that he expected interest rate cuts in both September and December and that it was working:

“Unless there is an expected increase in inflation figures, we expect two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each, in September and December. “If more interest rate cuts come, this will require data from a labor market that is as bad as expected.” It was noted that the rate of two interest rate cuts, which was seen as 60% in the Reuters survey in June, was 75% in this survey. PCE, or personal consumption expenditures data, to be announced on Friday, will also give an important idea about the course of inflation.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Experts Expect Two Rate Cuts from the Fed in 2024: Reuters Survey appeared first on Coin Engineer.