On September 17, 2025, the Fed lowered its policy rate to the 4.00–4.25% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted risks to inflation and employment, stressing the central bank’s commitment to independence. 

Following the rate cut, the Dow Jones gained 0.6% to 46,018.32 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 6,600.35 points, while the Nasdaq rose slightly by 0.3% 

Powell’s Remarks: Inflation and the Economy 

Powell stated, “We remain committed to achieving our goals for the benefit of the American people.” He noted that economic growth is showing moderate momentum, but labor market risks are rising while inflation remains elevated. 

He added that inflation has eased from its 2022 highs but tariff effects still need monitoring. On policy direction, Powell emphasized: 

“The Fed will continue to act independently. We are strongly committed to that.” 

“There was little support among members for a 50 bps cut.” 

Powell stressed the Fed can act quickly if necessary, but sees no immediate need for aggressive rate moves. According to Fed projections, inflation expectations align with the 2% target next year, and tariff-related price pressures should be temporary. The labor market slowdown and weaker demand suggest a cautious pace ahead. 

2025 Fed Rate Decision Calendar 

• September 2025: Rate cut to 4.00–4.25% 
• October 29, 2025: Next decision 
• December 10, 2025: Final decision of the year 

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The interest rate was kept constant at 4.50%.

Futures show that investors predict that there is a 68% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at the September meeting.

Statements Made After the Fed Rate Decision;

Fed Members Waller and Bowman dissented, preferring to cut the interest rate by a quarter point.
(JPMorgan’s Michele: We should pay attention to the two dissenting views.)

Fed: The unemployment rate remains low and labour market conditions remain solid.

Fed: Recent indicators suggest that the growth of economic activity is slowing in the first half of 2025.

White House: Trump’s proclamation imposes a universal 50% tariff on imports of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives from 1 August.

White House: Trump signed a decree imposing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total amount of tariffs to 50%.

FED Chairman Powell’s statements after the FED interest rate decision;

Fed Chairman Powell: Indicators show that economic growth is slowing.

Fed Chairman Powell: Inflation is slightly above the 2% target.

Powell: Labour market conditions are broadly balanced and unemployment remains low.

Powell: A broad range of indicators suggest that the labour market is close to maximum employment.

Powell: I expect PCE to rise by 2.5% and core spending by 2.7% in the 12 months to June.

Powell: Tariffs increase the prices of some goods.

Powell: Most measures of long-term inflation expectations are consistent with the Fed’s target.

Powell: The slowdown in growth reflects a slowdown in consumer spending.

Powell: Tariffs have put pressure on some goods, but the broader impact is uncertain.

Powell: A plausible baseline scenario is a short-lived tariff inflation effect.

Powell: Possible inflationary effects could be more persistent.

Powell: The policy review is expected to be completed by the end of summer.

Powell: There is downside risk in the labour market.

Powell: We have not taken a decision on the interest rate in September, we expect to have more information in the coming months.

Powell: There is a lot of uncertainty since the last meeting.

Powell: GDP and PDFP figures came in exactly at the level we expected.

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Oil Prices Surge: Inflation Concerns Mount 

News of the strikes quickly pushed crude oil prices up. WTI crude oil prices jumped over 13%, reaching $77 per barrel. Brent crude, meanwhile, traded between $74 and $77. Investors adjusted their positions against the possibility of Iran disrupting regional oil supply, creating upward pressure on energy prices. JPMorgan analysts warn that if war risks persist, oil prices could climb to $120. This potential increase could reignite energy-driven inflation pressures in many countries, especially the U.S. 

Gold Breaks Records 

Investors flocked to gold in search of safety. Spot gold gained $24 per ounce in early Asian trading, climbing above $3,410. This brought it to its highest levels in recent years. Gold’s sharp rally clearly indicates investors are turning to safe havens in uncertain times. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to fluctuate based on global risk appetite and Fed policies. Furthermore, a weakening dollar acts as a positive catalyst for XAUUSD. In summary, with the intensification of conflicts in the Middle East, XAUUSD crossed the critical threshold of $2,000, entering a lasting upward trend. Since the conflict began, gold has been investors’ top choice for hedging against uncertainty and risk. Every new tension headline creates upward pressure on gold prices. 

Bitcoin Loses Value: Digital Gold Debate Reignites 

In contrast to gold’s sharp rise, Bitcoin’s price fell below $104,500. Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff called this “proof that Bitcoin is not digital gold.” According to Schiff, Bitcoin can’t gain value against gold and is trading more than 15% below its November 2021 peak. 

Peter Schiff: “In response to Israel’s airstrike on Iran, the market pushed gold up another $24 in early Asian trading, reaching over $3,410. Bitcoin, on the other hand, fell below $104,500. Bitcoin priced in gold is now more than 15% below its November 2021 peak. Bitcoin’s inability to rise against gold is strong evidence that the bubble has topped.” 

U.S. Economy: Inflation and Fed’s Rate Decision Under Scrutiny 

Rising oil prices mean inflationary pressures for the U.S. economy. JPMorgan stated that increasing energy costs could push U.S. CPI data up to 5%. This implies the Fed might delay its planned interest rate cuts. Therefore, investors are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and the U.S. inflation data to be released this week. 

Upcoming data and regional developments will determine market direction in the coming days. 

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What Does the FED’s Interest Rate Decision in June Mean?

Undoubtedly, the US has always taken the lead in shaping world markets. Both the moves made by the FED and the US, a global power, have a direct impact on world markets. Especially in the cryptocurrency sector, the statements and interest rate decisions to be made by the FED directly affect the market. The big rise expected in the cryptocurrency sector in 2025 did not materialize as desired as the FED has not yet taken the expected action in monetary easing. Monetary easing and interest rate cuts are expected by the FED for the cryptocurrency sector. The FED’s interest rate cuts push investors into riskier markets. For this reason, the interest rate decision to be made by the FED on June 18, 2025 is of great importance.

Will the FED Cut Interest Rates in June?

The interest rate decision to be made by the US Securities and Exchange Commission on June 18th is a highly anticipated moment in all markets globally. In the first half of 2025, the interest rate cut expected in the market was not met. In Powell’s statements by the FED, he stated that it was early for the interest rate cut expected by the market in the first half of 2025, that inflation was reduced in a fully controlled manner and that for this reason, there would be no rush in interest rate cuts. So what does the market expect in the interest rate decision on June 18?

• Interest Rate Reduction (60%)

As of the latest inflation data, the current inflation rate of 2.9% is approaching the FED’s target of 2%. Unemployment rate is at a reasonable level at 4.1%. Economic growth is slowing (2025 Q1 growth: 1.8%)

Market expectation: 25 basis points (0.25%) cut

• Stable interest rates (35%)

The FED may be cautious to cut interest rates as it aims for full control of inflation. Tensions in the Middle East and fluctuations in energy prices pose risks. Market fluctuations by Bitcoin and Nasdaq may push the FED to act cautiously.

Market expectation: leave unchanged

• Unexpected Interest Rate Hike (5%)

The market is not expecting a rate hike. Nevertheless, if there is an unexpected increase in inflation and unemployment levels, the FED may raise interest rates again.

Experts’ Expectations

Goldman Sachs: ‘’The Fed will cut 25 basis points in June, but signals will be cautious.’’

JP Morgan: “If the inflation target is exceeded, another cut could come in 2025.

Bitcoin Analyst PlanB: ”If the Fed loosens, Bitcoin may continue to test new highs.

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FED Rate Reductions Expectation

Although the markets have been expecting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future, the expected rate cuts have not yet begun. Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer, sees a rate cut by the Fed as an optimistic expectation. According to Rieder, recent employment data and inflation dynamics do not warrant a rate cut that would require the Fed to act immediately.

Rick Rieder: “Fed Won’t Rush to Cut Interest Rates”

According to Rick Rieder’s statements, the employment and inflation data published by the US do not create a situation that would require an immediate interest rate cut by the FED.

It is thought that there will be no rush as inflation data and employment data are not in a position to require the FED to cut interest rates.

Employment Data: Latest data show that the labor market is still stronger

Inflation Resilience: Core CPI hovers around 3%, allowing the FED to ease its hand

Market Foam: Excessive optimism in equities may push the Fed to be more cautious. Especially with the advent of tariffs, there has been a significant outflow of money from the US stock market. This suggests that the FED needs to be more careful in its monetary control.

FED Rate Cuts and Market Expectations

The FED’s interest rate cuts were expected to be gradual by the market starting from the first quarter of 2025. However, these expectations could not be met with the developments. In the crypto sector, eyes were also turned to a possible interest rate cut by the FED. The issue of customs duties and global crises delayed the FED’s interest rate cuts.

With the postponement of interest rate cuts by the FED, there was a decline in the cryptocurrency sector as expectations were not realized in the first quarter of 2025. There was also great pressure on altcoins, especially Bitcoin.

Eyes are now set on the 2nd quarter of 2025. With the improvement in employment and inflation data, a gradual interest rate cut is expected in the 2nd quarter. The issue of customs duties stands as one of the strongest factors that will trigger or postpone interest rate cuts at this point.

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Bitcoin is somewhat flat and trading at $58,480 less than $58,500. With the majority going to BlackRock’s IBIT, daily inflows into the bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) arrived in at $12.9 million. On Sept. 18, the Fed is expected to declare an interest rate drop, therefore starting the so-called easing cycle that has historically supported risk assets, including bitcoin.

The 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices as of Asian morning hours Tuesday show traders a 67% chance of a significant 50 bps rate drop falling within the 4.7%-5% area. This deviates greatly from the 25% probability from a month ago and from Monday’s 50% suggested probability.

Traders on Polymarket have a 57% probability of a 50+ bps drop and a 41% probability of a 25 bps drop. Elsewhere, the market stays rather flat. Notable movers include XRP up 3.5%, SUI up 2.5%, and Fantom’s FTM up 10.5% on ongoing good market sentiment from its forthcoming rebrand to Sonic.

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