Especially the inflation data to be released in the US, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, and tensions in the Middle East are among the topics closely followed by investors. How will Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies react?

Fed Meeting and Interest Rate Decision

The most important development of the week will be the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. Markets are focused not only on the central bank’s decision regarding interest rates but also on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements.

Expectations in the futures market indicate that the Fed will not make any changes to interest rates at this meeting. According to current forecasts, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is quite high.

Nevertheless, investors will closely monitor Powell’s assessments, particularly regarding the impact of developments related to Iran on energy prices and inflation. Concerns that rising energy prices could increase inflationary pressure have already weakened rate cut expectations.

Inflation Data and Economic Indicators

The Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February, to be released on Wednesday, also holds critical importance for the markets. This data can provide important signals about inflation trends as it reflects changes in production costs.

Analysts state that the PPI data is not expected to have a strong enough impact to change the Fed’s current tight monetary policy stance. Nevertheless, every new inflation indicator continues to influence rate expectations.

Later in the week, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and January new home sales data will be released. These indicators can provide additional clues about the overall health of the US economy.

Bitcoin Solid Stance: Middle East Tensions

In addition to economic developments, geopolitical risks are also on the markets’ agenda. Over the weekend, it was reported that the US carried out an attack on Iran’s Harg Island region, which is critical for the country’s oil industry.

Following this development, oil prices rose again, reaching approximately $100 per barrel. The increase in energy prices is seen as an important factor that could affect global inflation expectations.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump is expected to announce the formation of a joint naval security coalition with certain countries to escort ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The fact that all these developments are occurring within the same week is creating an environment of increased uncertainty in financial markets. Therefore, both upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments are evaluated as likely to lead to higher short-term fluctuations in the crypto markets.

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Over the past week, Bitcoin gained more than 4%, demonstrating resilience even as global uncertainty increased. Although the asset experienced a modest decline over the last 24 hours, it continues to trade above the levels seen before the latest escalation in the conflict.

Crypto Market Ends the Week in Positive Territory

Despite rising geopolitical risks, the broader cryptocurrency market posted gains throughout the week. Several major digital assets recorded notable increases during the same period.

Ether climbed roughly 5.5%, reaching around $2,090. Dogecoin advanced by about 5%, while Solana rose approximately 4% to trade near $88. BNB also recorded a weekly gain of around 4.5%, reaching roughly $655.

For Bitcoin, however, the key technical hurdle remains the resistance zone between $73,000 and $74,000. Over the past two weeks, the asset has tested this range multiple times but has yet to achieve a decisive breakout.

Markets Are Adapting to War-Related Headlines

In the early stages of the conflict, financial markets reacted sharply to each new development due to uncertainty surrounding potential risks. Over time, however, traders appear to have developed a clearer framework for pricing geopolitical events.

A pattern has gradually emerged: military escalation tends to push oil prices higher, leading to short-term volatility in risk assets, including Bitcoin. Yet after the initial reaction, markets have repeatedly stabilized.

This suggests that investors are increasingly treating war-related news as temporary shocks rather than long-term market disruptors.

Oil Supply Risks and the Strait of Hormuz

Another factor contributing to market uncertainty is the risk to global oil supply. The U.S. strike on Kharg Island has raised concerns about further disruptions in energy markets.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that oil infrastructure had been spared for the time being but warned that the situation could change if Iran attempted to block the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.

Iran, in turn, warned that attacks on energy facilities could trigger retaliatory actions against U.S.-linked assets in the region. According to energy analysts, the current situation already represents one of the largest oil supply disruptions in modern history.

Focus Shifts to the Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting

While geopolitical developments remain a key factor, financial markets are also closely watching the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for March 17–18.

Oil prices remaining above $100 per barrel, combined with ongoing global uncertainty, have revived concerns about stagflation. Market data currently indicates a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate unchanged within the 3.5%–3.75% range.

However, the economic projections and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may prove more influential than the decision itself. Any indication that interest rate hikes could return to the policy agenda may put pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

For now, Bitcoin’s ability to maintain levels above $70,000 highlights the market’s resilience. Still, global developments continue to carry the potential to trigger new waves of volatility across the crypto sector.

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The proposal is considered to play a critical role in determining how major banks operating in the US will interact with Bitcoin and similar digital assets.

Fed Preparing to Publish New Basel Proposal

According to information from officials, the Fed is expected to publish a draft in the coming days explaining how banks should apply risk-weighting rules under the Basel Accords. This regulation will particularly cover large-scale American banks.

Following the publication of the proposal, an approximately 90-day public comment period will begin. During this period, financial institutions, industry representatives, and policy organizations will be able to submit their views and suggestions regarding the draft regulation to the authorities.

The Bitcoin Policy Institute is among the organizations planning to take an active role in this process. The institution’s goal is stated as ensuring that regulators adopt a more balanced and accurate framework when evaluating Bitcoin.

Basel Rules Classify Bitcoin as a High-Risk Asset

Under the current Basel regulations, Bitcoin is considered a very high-risk asset on banks’ balance sheets. Within this framework, a 1250% risk weight is applied to Bitcoin.

This ratio requires banks to hold significantly higher capital when taking any position related to Bitcoin or providing services connected to this asset. Compared to traditional financial assets, this represents a very heavy capital requirement.

Critics argue that this approach creates an effect that could limit banks’ activities in the Bitcoin sector. High capital obligations can cause many financial institutions to avoid offering crypto asset services.

A Critical Process for the Banking Sector

The draft regulation prepared by the Fed is seen as an important part of the ongoing discussions regarding the position of digital assets within the global banking system. Policymakers in the US have long been debating how crypto assets should be integrated into the traditional financial system.

Industry representatives believe that the final decision could be decisive in whether banks expand their services related to Bitcoin. If the regulations maintain the current risk approach, many banks are expected to continue keeping their distance from the crypto sector.

Conversely, if a more balanced risk assessment model is adopted, it could open the door for traditional financial institutions to engage more actively with the Bitcoin ecosystem. Therefore, the Fed’s proposal regarding the Basel application is being closely monitored by both the banking sector and the crypto market.

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The statement has attracted attention across global financial markets, as investors continue to speculate about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy and the potential impact on risk assets.

What Is Quantitative Easing?

Quantitative easing is a monetary policy tool typically used by central banks during periods of severe economic stress. Under this approach, a central bank purchases large quantities of government bonds and other financial assets from the market. The goal is to increase liquidity within the financial system, lower long-term interest rates, and stimulate economic activity.

The Federal Reserve has relied on QE in the past during major crises. Notably, the policy was widely used after the 2008 global financial crisis and again during the COVID-19 pandemic. These programs helped stabilize financial markets and supported economic recovery by injecting significant liquidity into the system.

Focus Remains on Policy Normalization

Bessent’s comments indicate that the U.S. economy is not currently facing the type of crisis that would require emergency monetary stimulus. As a result, the Federal Reserve appears to be maintaining its focus on policy normalization rather than returning to ultra-loose conditions.

At present, the Fed’s priorities remain centered on managing inflation and maintaining economic stability. Policymakers are attempting to ensure that inflation continues to moderate while keeping economic growth on a sustainable path.

This approach suggests that the central bank is likely to proceed cautiously, avoiding large-scale monetary stimulus unless economic conditions deteriorate significantly.

Implications for Financial Markets

The indication that QE is not on the near-term horizon carries important implications for financial markets. Historically, large liquidity injections from central banks have played a major role in fueling rallies across risk assets, including equities and cryptocurrencies.

However, the current outlook suggests that financial conditions could remain relatively tight compared to previous stimulus-driven cycles. Without the support of expansive liquidity programs, markets may experience a more restrained environment where fundamentals and macroeconomic data play a larger role in shaping price movements.

Outlook for Future Monetary Policy

While quantitative easing remains a powerful policy tool, Bessent’s remarks imply that its return would likely require a significant economic downturn or financial crisis. For now, policymakers appear committed to a more measured strategy focused on controlling inflation and maintaining macroeconomic stability.

As a result, expectations for an immediate return to large-scale monetary expansion remain limited, and global markets will continue to monitor economic data and central bank signals for clues about the next phase of policy.

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At the same time, rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions are raising new concerns about inflation. These developments are not only important for traditional markets but could also have a significant impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets.

A Busy Interest Rate Calendar Awaits Markets

The upcoming economic calendar is filled with key policy announcements that may shape the near-term outlook for global markets. The schedule is expected to unfold as follows:

• March 17: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)

• March 18: Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed)

• March 19: Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the European Central Bank (ECB)

With several major monetary authorities delivering decisions within just a few days, investors are preparing for potential volatility across global financial markets.

Rising Oil Prices Are Reviving Inflation Concerns

One of the main factors forcing investors to rethink their interest rate expectations is the recent surge in energy prices.

The conflict that began on February 28, following coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, has expanded through retaliatory actions across the region. These developments have disrupted energy shipments in parts of the Middle East, pushing oil prices higher.

The increase in energy costs has raised fears that global inflation could accelerate again, complicating the policy outlook for central banks.

If energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may need to delay planned rate cuts or maintain a more cautious stance toward monetary easing.

Rate Cut Expectations Are Being Reconsidered

Until recently, many market participants expected central banks—led by the Federal Reserve—to begin gradually lowering interest rates throughout 2026.

This expectation was partly supported by the rapid rise of artificial intelligence technologies, which some analysts believe could increase productivity and exert disinflationary pressure on the economy. A lower-rate environment typically provides strong support for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

However, the recent spike in oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have introduced new uncertainty into that outlook. If rising energy costs push inflation higher, central banks could adopt a more hawkish policy stance.

Hawkish Signals Could Pressure Bitcoin

Any indication that policymakers may keep interest rates higher for longer could create turbulence in financial markets. Higher borrowing costs often reduce investor appetite for risk assets, which may lead to downward pressure on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

On the other hand, if central banks maintain a wait-and-see approach or signal that inflation risks remain manageable, risk assets could regain upward momentum.

How the Fed Typically Reacts to Oil Shocks

Economist and Fed watcher Ethan Harris notes that central banks tend to react cautiously when oil prices spike.

According to Harris, this hesitation stems from two key factors. First, oil shocks tend to slow economic growth while simultaneously increasing inflation, making it difficult for policymakers to determine which risk is more pressing.

Second, many oil price shocks prove to be temporary. As a result, central banks often avoid adjusting interest rates immediately to prevent the need for rapid policy reversals shortly afterward.

Fed and BOJ Decisions May Be Most Influential for Bitcoin

Historically, the Federal Reserve has had the strongest influence on Bitcoin’s price dynamics due to its impact on global liquidity conditions.

The Bank of Japan can also play an important role at times, particularly because of Japan’s position in global capital flows.

With rising energy costs already placing pressure on Japan’s economy, the upcoming BOJ policy decision could attract significant attention from both domestic investors and global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector.

Markets are Preparing For Interest Rate Decisions

The upcoming round of central bank announcements is expected to provide important insights into the direction of global monetary policy. The way policymakers respond to rising energy prices and inflation risks may shape financial market trends in the weeks ahead.

For this reason, investors are closely monitoring next week’s decisions, as signals from central banks could influence not only traditional assets but also the future trajectory of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

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According to Hayes, the smarter approach right now is to wait and observe global macroeconomic developments, particularly the next moves from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

Federal Reserve Policy Could Be the Key Driver for Bitcoin

Hayes explained that his decision to re-enter the Bitcoin market will largely depend on whether the Federal Reserve begins easing monetary policy. In his view, Bitcoin becomes significantly more attractive when central banks start injecting liquidity into the financial system.

He pointed out that rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could increase the likelihood of large-scale government spending. If that happens, the U.S. may eventually resort to expanding liquidity to support its economic and military commitments. Such an environment could create favorable conditions for assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes emphasized that while some investors argue that war itself benefits Bitcoin, the more accurate interpretation is that money printing benefits Bitcoin. Historically, periods of monetary expansion have tended to support risk assets and alternative investments.

Geopolitical Tensions Could Pressure Markets

The ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran could weigh on global markets, according to Hayes. Escalating conflict often reduces overall risk appetite among investors, which can lead to broad sell-offs across multiple asset classes.

In such a scenario, not only equities but also digital assets like Bitcoin could face downward pressure. Hayes suggested that if the conflict continues to intensify, the market could experience a significant wave of selling.

Under those circumstances, Bitcoin could potentially fall below the $60,000 level. A move like that might trigger a cascade of liquidations in leveraged positions, amplifying volatility across the market.

Bitcoin briefly approached the $60,000 level earlier in February before recovering slightly. At present, the asset is trading near the $69,000 range after a modest rebound.

Hayes Remains Bullish in the Long Term

Despite his cautious stance in the short term, Hayes remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.

He previously projected that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by 2026, and he continues to stand by that forecast. In his view, the long-term structural drivers supporting Bitcoin remain intact.

Hayes also noted that the period during which Bitcoin trades below $100,000 may not last for many more years. As institutional adoption grows and the market matures, such price levels could eventually become far less common.

Not All Analysts Share the Same View for Bitcoin

While Hayes is taking a wait-and-see approach, some analysts hold a more optimistic short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market.

Recent strength in technology stocks, particularly the surge in the Nasdaq index, has led some market observers to believe that Bitcoin and altcoins could benefit from renewed investor optimism.

According to this perspective, the broader macroeconomic environment may still support further upside in the crypto market.

Markets Are Watching the Fed

Ultimately, Hayes’ stance reflects a broader theme currently shaping financial markets: the influence of central bank policy. While he maintains strong confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, he believes that the next major bullish phase could be closely tied to renewed monetary easing.

For that reason, Hayes prefers to remain on the sidelines for now, waiting for clearer signals from the Federal Reserve before making new Bitcoin investments.

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Miran: Monetary Policy Is Too Tight

Stephen Miran stated that the Fed’s current policy stance is too tight relative to economic conditions. He suggested that reducing interest rates to a more balanced level could be important for sustaining economic growth. He emphasized that monetary policy should be more flexible, particularly during periods when economic activity shows signs of slowing. Miran argued that the Fed’s current approach places excessive pressure on the economy and that policy rates should move toward a neutral level. According to him, this step could help balance financial conditions and support economic growth. Analysts note that such statements signal the possibility of stronger dovish discussions within the Fed.

“The current monetary policy stance is too tight for the economy. I believe the policy rate should move toward a neutral level.”

Miran also commented on energy prices, noting that while the Fed typically does not respond directly to oil price fluctuations, recent shocks could suppress demand. He suggested that if rising oil prices weaken economic demand, core inflation could be affected downward, creating conditions for a more dovish policy approach.

Neutral Rate Estimated Between 2.5% and 2.75%

Miran believes the Fed’s neutral interest rate lies between 2.5% and 2.75%. He stated that the Fed should initially lower the policy rate toward this range and then reassess economic conditions before deciding on further monetary policy direction. This approach, according to Miran, would allow for a more careful analysis of current uncertainties and help maintain a balanced monetary policy framework. He also indicated that if the Fed does not cut rates this month, he could vote against the decision, signaling the need for faster easing. Analysts say such statements reveal differing views within the Fed regarding rate cuts and suggest that monetary policy debates may intensify in the near term.

U.S. Employment Data Disappoints

Miran’s comments came immediately after weak labor market data. According to the report, the U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, significantly below market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. This sparked concerns about slower economic growth. Analysts note that weak employment figures increase pressure on the Fed to consider a rate cut. Miran’s call for lower rates highlights new debates regarding the balance between growth and inflation, suggesting that upcoming Fed policy decisions will be closely watched. Analysts also warn that stronger rate-cut expectations could have significant impacts on global financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector.

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Recent increases in geopolitical risks and their potential impact on inflation are causing expectations about monetary policy to be reconsidered.

Inflation Concerns Back on the Agenda! Rate Cut Cancelled?

Ongoing conflicts between the US and Iran have reignited discussions about inflation risks in global markets. Possible effects on energy prices and global supply chains are strengthening concerns that price pressures could increase.

These developments may lead the FED to adopt a more cautious stance on interest rate policy. Analysts note that if geopolitical risks create upward pressure on inflation, monetary policy could remain tighter.

JPMorgan: The Rate Cut Cycle May Have Ended

According to a report in South Korea-based Maeil Business Newspaper, JPMorgan has updated its expectations regarding the FED’s interest rate policy. Based on evaluations included in a report published by the New York office of the Bank of Korea, the bank believes that the US rate-cutting cycle may have ended in December.

JPMorgan had previously raised the possibility of limited rate cuts in 2026. However, following recent developments, the bank now states that it does not expect any rate cuts this year.

Interest Rates Expected to Remain Unchanged

According to the new projection shared by the bank, the FED’s policy rate is expected to remain steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range throughout 2026. JPMorgan believes there is a possibility that inflation will remain above the FED’s target level in the foreseeable future.

For this reason, a rapid easing of monetary policy is not anticipated. On the contrary, if inflation remains persistently high, a different policy path could come into focus.

Rate Hike Scenario for 2027

Another striking point in JPMorgan’s assessment is the potential for a future rate increase. The bank forecasts that the FED’s next move could be a rate hike in 2027, potentially pushing the policy rate back up to the 4% level.

This scenario indicates that a prolonged tight policy stance could continue.

Differing Expectations in the Market

Meanwhile, there are also varying views in financial markets regarding the FED’s interest rate path. While institutions such as Citi and TD Cowen expect three rate cuts this year, Barclays, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and Wells Fargo forecast two rate cuts. Deutsche Bank believes there could be only a single rate cut during the year.

These differing forecasts show that uncertainties in the global economy and the inflation outlook remain contentious in terms of their impact on monetary policy. Data and economic indicators to be released by the FED in the coming period will play a critical role in determining the direction of interest rate policy.

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He suggested that a cumulative rate reduction of around one percentage point during the year could represent a reasonable policy trajectory. Miran also noted that continuing the rate-cutting process at the Federal Reserve’s March meeting would likely be an appropriate step given the current data.

Geopolitical Tensions Have Not Changed the Outlook

Despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Miran’s policy outlook appears largely unchanged. Over the weekend, the United States and Israel carried out strikes targeting Iran, a development that immediately triggered volatility in global energy markets. Oil prices reacted with a noticeable increase as investors priced in potential supply risks and broader regional instability.

These developments prompted some market participants to reconsider expectations regarding the pace of monetary easing in 2026. Higher energy prices can feed into inflation expectations, which in turn could complicate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to bring inflation closer to its long-term target.

However, Miran emphasized that the available economic data does not yet suggest a significant shift in the broader outlook. From his perspective, the recent geopolitical events have not produced measurable changes in labor market conditions or inflation projections that would justify altering the Fed’s current policy direction.

A Gradual Approach to Monetary Easing

Miran favors a gradual and measured approach to policy easing rather than aggressive rate reductions. His proposal involves lowering interest rates by approximately 25 basis points at each policy meeting until the policy rate approaches what economists refer to as the “neutral” level — a point where monetary policy neither stimulates nor restrains economic growth.

Once that level is reached, Miran believes policymakers should reassess the economic landscape before deciding on additional steps. This strategy aims to balance economic support with financial stability by avoiding abrupt shifts in policy.

Diverging Views Within the Federal Reserve

The debate over the appropriate path for monetary policy continues within the Federal Reserve itself. Some policymakers prefer to wait for clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward the central bank’s 2 percent target before supporting further rate cuts.

Miran, on the other hand, argues that labor market indicators should be interpreted carefully and that current conditions suggest the economy could still benefit from additional policy support. In his view, the present environment allows room for a more accommodative stance without undermining economic stability.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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According to a notice from the White House, Warsh has been nominated to serve a four-year term as Chair of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors. In addition, the nomination proposes a 14-year term for Warsh as a member of the Fed’s governing board. If confirmed by the Senate, he would replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Debate Over a Potential New Era at the Fed with Warsh

Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve Chair is scheduled to end on May 15. However, Powell’s position as a member of the Board of Governors extends until January 31, 2028. Although Trump has previously criticized Powell and even suggested removing him, current expectations indicate that Powell will complete his chairmanship term.

Warsh’s nomination has already sparked discussion about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. Several Democratic lawmakers have expressed concerns about preserving the Federal Reserve’s institutional independence. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer emphasized that Warsh must clearly demonstrate his commitment to maintaining the Fed’s autonomy from political pressure before his nomination moves forward.

Kevin Warsh’s Perspective on Bitcoin

Kevin Warsh previously served as a Federal Reserve governor between 2006 and 2011 during the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. After leaving the central bank, he continued his work in economics as a fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

Warsh has drawn attention in recent years for his relatively open stance toward Bitcoin. In a 2021 interview with CNBC, he remarked that while gold has historically been the dominant store of value, younger generations increasingly view Bitcoin as a modern alternative. In a later discussion in 2025, he suggested that cryptocurrencies could contribute to market discipline by signaling when economic policies may require adjustment.

He has also indicated that Bitcoin can serve as a useful reference point for policymakers, potentially providing feedback about the effectiveness of monetary and economic decisions.

Senate Approval and Broader Regulatory Context

The timeline for a Senate vote on Warsh’s nomination has not yet been announced, but the process is expected to attract significant political scrutiny.

At the same time, developments within U.S. financial regulatory institutions are drawing attention. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission currently operates with only one confirmed leader, Chair Michael Selig, who took office in December. The agency normally has five commissioners, yet additional nominations have not been submitted.

As lawmakers in Washington continue debating comprehensive legislation on digital asset market structure, the CFTC could eventually gain broader authority over the regulation of crypto markets in the United States.

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