At first glance, the data presents a calm picture since the figures aligned perfectly with forecasts. However, in macroeconomic indicators, the most important message is sometimes hidden in numbers that do not change. The fact that inflation has remained at the same level for two consecutive months suggests that price pressures have not completely disappeared, yet a new acceleration phase has not emerged either.

Core Inflation Remains Sticky

Alongside the headline figure, another key indicator closely monitored by markets is core inflation (Core CPI). Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy components, was 2.5% in February 2026, the same level recorded in January.

This pattern indicates that certain components of inflation still display a “sticky” structure. Price pressures—particularly within the services sector and some essential consumption categories—are easing more slowly, which keeps the core data relatively elevated.

In other words, the persistence of inflation is also visible in the core measure; core CPI remaining steady at 2.5% year-over-year suggests that price pressures across the broader economy have not yet been fully broken.

Markets Show a “Calm but Cautious” Reaction

Because the data matched expectations, financial markets did not experience sharp price movements. Still, a noticeable balance-seeking behavior appeared across several major assets.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Continued its sideways movement without a significant deviation after the data release.

• Gold: Spot gold prices remained near the $5,190 resistance zone, reflecting the slower pace of disinflation.

• US 10-year Treasury yields: Continued hovering around 4%, as concerns persist that the Fed may delay potential rate cuts.

Overall, the reaction suggests that markets interpreted the data not as a major surprise but rather as confirmation of existing expectations.

All Eyes on the March Fed Meeting

Following the inflation release, market attention has now shifted toward the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s next interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.

The updated economic projections, growth forecasts, and signals regarding the future rate path that will be released during this meeting could shape the direction of monetary policy for the rest of the year. In particular, the speed at which inflation moves toward the Fed’s target will remain a key factor in determining the timing of potential rate cuts.

For now, the consensus across markets is relatively clear: the data appears calm, but the Fed’s signals will ultimately determine the next move.

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Market participants are reassessing rate cut expectations following the announcement. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies, gold, and stocks are being priced according to these developments. The annual CPI came in slightly above expectations at 2.7%. The monthly CPI matched expectations at 0.3%. Core CPI data showed a yearly rate of 2.9%, below expectations, and a monthly rate of 0.2%, slightly below forecasts.

June 2025 US CPI Figures 

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Yearly: Released at 2.7% (Expectation: 2.6%, Previous: 2.4%)
• Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly: Released at 0.3% (Expectation: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%)
• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Yearly: Released at 2.9% (Expectation: 3.0%, Previous: 2.8%)
• Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Monthly: Released at 0.2% (Expectation: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%)

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Core Inflation and Fed Interest Rate Expectations  

Federal Reserve officials and market participants are closely monitoring the impact of this inflation increase on interest rate policies. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have previously indicated that they may delay rate cuts if inflation remains higher than expected. For instance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated, “Controlling inflation remains our priority.”  

Following May’s data, the likelihood of a rate cut in June has significantly diminished. According to the Kalshi prediction platform, rate cut expectations have dropped sharply. This shift has affected investors’ risk appetite, causing new volatility in financial assets.  

Liquidity and Inflation Reaction in Crypto Markets  

Global liquidity growth has fueled gains in cryptocurrency markets. Experts note that Bitcoin rose 4% to $110,000, moving in sync with the increase in M2 money supply. Other cryptos like Ethereum and Solana also saw similar gains. Analysts highlight that Bitcoin tends to follow changes in M2 money supply within a 71-day cycle.  

Investors eagerly await the June 11 CPI report. This data will reveal whether inflation is persistent and what path the Fed will take. Markets expect interest rates to remain around 425-450 basis points. However, inflation continues to rise. In this environment, the Fed prefers to wait before cutting rates. Federal Reserve officials, especially Chair Jerome Powell and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, have indicated they would not consider rate cuts if inflation becomes persistent.  

Traditional assets such as bonds and stocks could remain pressured due to inflation. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies continue to benefit from increased global liquidity, deepening the divergence between markets.  

In summary, today’s US CPI report will be the most critical data guiding the markets.  

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