Onchain options protocol Derive states that data shows the chances of Ethereum reaching the anticipated $5,000 mark by the end of 2024 are less than 10%. However, significant inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) point to an impending “supply-side crisis.”

In a market report on December 10, Derive’s research director Sean Dawson said that the probability of Ethereum reaching $5,000 by December 27 peaked at 16%, but has recently dropped to just over 8%.

Ether’s chances of reaching $5,000 by the end of the year have decreased by about 50%. Source: Derive.xyz

According to CoinMarketCap, ETH needs a 37% increase from its current price of $3,669 to reach $5,000. Dawson added, “The distribution of call and put options for ETH is balanced, indicating a neutral market sentiment.”

TradFi is Scooping Up Cheap ETH!

Pseudonymous crypto trader CoinMamba, in a post on X on December 10, stated…

“My target for ETH is still $5,000 by the end of the year,” he said. “Do what you will with that information,” he added.

At the time of publication, Ether was trading at $3,661. Source: CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, in an X post on the same day, Eric Conner stated that the $305 million in daily inflows into Ether ETFs on December 10 signal an impending “supply-side crisis.” Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano added, “TradFi is gobbling up the cheap ETH.” According to Farside data, $202.2 million of the $305 million in inflows came from the Fidelity Ethereum Fund.

Ethereum Is Expected to Reach a New ATH This Week

This follows a statement from Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams on December 9, suggesting that a new all-time high for Ether “could happen” within the next week.

Ether’s current all-time high is $4,878, reached in November 2021.

Meanwhile, pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi, in an X post on December 9 to his 830,900 followers, said Ether is experiencing “structural changes and the beginning of significant ETF flows.”

Highlighting that ETH had its “highest weekly close of the year,” Pentoshi echoed Adams’ sentiment, suggesting that the retest of Ether’s all-time high could happen sooner than many traders anticipate.

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Approved Ethereum ETFs

iShares Ethereum Trust (BlackRock)

Fidelity Ethereum Fund (Fidelity Investments)

VanEck Ethereum ETF (VanEck)

21Shares Ethereum ETF (21Shares)

Bitwise Spot Ethereum ETF (Bitwise Asset Management)

Increased Participation Expected

Experts believe that the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs will provide a significant access point for traditional investors who were previously hesitant to invest in cryptocurrency, and will increase interest in Ethereum. This could lead to an increase in the Ethereum price due to increased demand.

Some analysts, such as Kaiko Research, point to past experiences such as the low demand for futures-based Ethereum ETFs launched last year, and note that the impact of spot ETFs on price could be uncertain.

The Ethereum price, which has fallen about 1.2% in the last 24 hours (currently trading at $3,458), faces significant resistance at the $3,500 level, according to analysts’ comments. It is difficult to predict which direction the price will go in the short term due to the impact of spot ETFs.

The approval of spot Ethereum ETFs is considered a turning point for the Ethereum and cryptocurrency markets. While an increase in the Ethereum price is expected in the long term due to the participation of a wider investor base, price fluctuations are likely to occur in the short term. Investors should make informed investment decisions by following these developments and analyzing the market.

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The following spot Ethereum ETFs will commence trading on Tuesday:

21Shares Core Ethereum ETF (CETH)
Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH)
Franklin Ethereum ETF (EZET)
Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF (QETH)
VanEck Ethereum ETF (ETHV)

Cboe stated that it is pleased to announce that the Exchange Traded Product (ETP) will be listed on Cboe and will begin trading as a new issue on July 23, 2024.

This date had been widely anticipated for the commencement of trading. Earlier this week, multiple sources close to the matter had indicated their expectation that the SEC would grant final approvals for trading to begin on July 23rd. This expectation was based on the regulator requesting final filing drafts from firms.

In an unexpected development, Ethereum ETFs had received preliminary approvals from the SEC in May. This came as a surprise as the regulatory body had been scrutinizing Ethereum-focused firms and treating the asset differently from Bitcoin.

Nonetheless, the SEC granted initial approvals for Ethereum ETFs just four months after spot Bitcoin ETFs began trading in the United States.

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