Michael Harvey, head of franchise trading at Galaxy Digital, believes Bitcoin’s recent pause is only natural following a strong upward move. “It’s taking a breath,” he explained, suggesting that the most likely outcome is a “slow and steady climb” toward the end of July.

Another Peak Before July Ends?

Harvey laid out a best-case scenario where Bitcoin could push higher in the coming weeks. For that to happen, three key drivers must align:

• Continued strong inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs,

• Ongoing accumulation by institutional players adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets,

• And a notable uptick in retail demand.

Recent data points to robust ETF activity and growing institutional interest. However, the retail side of the market remains a question mark. While some metrics hint at a revival, others show investors may still be sitting on the sidelines.

Is Retail Demand Gaining Momentum?

One promising signal is Coinbase climbing to No. 137 on the U.S. Apple App Store, potentially reflecting a rise in retail curiosity. On the flip side, Google Trends shows that searches for “Bitcoin” remain relatively muted — a sign that broader retail hype hasn’t fully kicked in yet.

Bitcoin reached a fresh all-time high of $122,884 earlier this month before pulling back to $118,098 at the time of writing, according to on-chain data.

The Bear Case: Could Bitcoin Drop to $110K?

No analysis is complete without considering the risks. Harvey’s bear case involves a 5–10% correction, possibly driven by profit-taking or weakness in traditional equities. Under this scenario, Bitcoin could retrace below the $110,000 mark in the near term.

Are We Nearing the End of the Cycle for Bitcoin?

Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital has echoed a more cautionary perspective. He suggests that if Bitcoin’s current cycle mirrors the 2020 pattern, the market could top out in October — 550 days after the April 2024 halving. That would put us in the late stages of the current bull run.

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