Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research, Alex Thorn, emphasizes that downside risks are still firmly in play. In his view, Bitcoin’s recent movements do not yet reflect a decisive shift in market sentiment, particularly as macro and crypto-specific catalysts remain scarce.

Galaxy Digital: Realized Price Emerges as a Key Level

One of the most critical metrics highlighted by Galaxy Digital is Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all BTC in circulation. This level currently sits near $56,000. Thorn notes that Bitcoin may first revisit the $70,000 supply gap, after which a test of the realized price becomes increasingly plausible if bearish conditions persist.

A major headwind, according to Galaxy, is Bitcoin’s failure to trade in tandem with traditional hard assets like gold and silver. This disconnect weakens the “debasement hedge” narrative that has historically supported Bitcoin during periods of macro uncertainty, placing additional pressure on price expectations.

Technical Structure: Long-Term Averages in Focus

Although Bitcoin recently gained around 3% to trade just below $78,500, it remains roughly 39% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in early October. Galaxy Digital places particular importance on long-term moving averages when evaluating market cycles.

Thorn points out that Bitcoin lost support at its 50-week moving average in November. Meanwhile, the 200-week moving average, currently near $58,000, has historically coincided with cycle bottoms. In prior market downturns, these levels have often served as strong accumulation zones for long-term investors.

Long-Term Holder Behavior Suggests a Potential Base

On-chain data analyzed by Galaxy Digital indicates limited evidence of aggressive accumulation by large holders so far. This suggests that some investors may be waiting for lower prices before re-entering the market.

However, there is a notable shift: long-term holder profit-taking has slowed significantly. While some holders may still be inclined to sell into strength, the reduction in realized profits historically aligns with markets approaching a local or cyclical bottom.

Regulatory Developments Unlikely to Boost Bitcoin Near-Term

While US lawmakers continue to debate a crypto market structure bill, Galaxy Digital believes its short-term impact on Bitcoin may be limited. Even if passed, Thorn argues that regulatory clarity is more likely to benefit altcoins rather than Bitcoin itself.

Overall, Galaxy’s assessment suggests that Bitcoin could remain volatile in the near term, but is gradually approaching levels that have historically marked long-term opportunity zones.

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Galaxy Digital: High Uncertainty Ahead for Bitcoin

According to Galaxy Digital’s analysis, Bitcoin is on track to finish 2025 close to where it began the year. After a strong rally in the early months driven by ETF inflows and regulatory optimism BTC reached a new all-time high of $126,080 in October. However, disappointing macroeconomic data, liquidations of leveraged positions, and whale selling later weighed heavily on price action. The report notes that by December, Bitcoin had fallen back toward the $90,000 range, struggling to find clear short-term direction. Wide pricing ranges in the options market further reinforce this uncertainty.

Galaxy Digital refrains from giving a precise Bitcoin price target for 2026. Instead, it points out that options markets are pricing extremely broad scenarios—ranging from $70,000 to $130,000 by mid-2026, and $50,000 to $250,000 by year-end. According to the firm, if Bitcoin fails to establish itself sustainably above the $100,000–$105,000 range, downside risks could persist. Still, over the long term, expanding institutional access and easing monetary policy could position Bitcoin as a “store of value” similar to gold.

“BTC could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. While 2026 is highly chaotic and difficult to forecast, new all-time highs remain possible.”
— Galaxy Digital Analysts

Solana and Layer-1 Ecosystems: Key Expectations

In its assessment of Layer-1 and Layer-2 ecosystems, Galaxy Digital places particular emphasis on Solana. The report projects that “Internet Capital Markets” on Solana could reach a total market capitalization of $2 billion by 2026.

The firm expects a shift away from memecoin-driven activity toward on-chain business models that generate real revenue. At least one major Layer-1 network is anticipated to integrate a revenue-generating application directly at the protocol level. On the other hand, Galaxy Digital suggests that proposals aimed at reducing Solana’s inflation rate are unlikely to be approved in 2026.

2026 Outlook for Stablecoins, DeFi, and ETFs

Galaxy Digital forecasts that stablecoin supply will grow at a 30–40% compound annual rate, with transaction volumes approaching levels that challenge traditional payment infrastructure. As regulatory clarity improves in 2026, stablecoins are expected to play a more central role in global payment systems.

In the DeFi space, the firm predicts that decentralized exchanges (DEXs) will capture more than 25% of global spot trading volume. It also expects the adoption of futarchy-based governance models within DAOs and projects that crypto-collateralized lending could exceed $90 billion in total volume. On the traditional finance front, Galaxy Digital anticipates the launch of more than 50 spot altcoin ETFs in the U.S., alongside net inflows surpassing $50 billion into spot crypto ETFs.

Overall Assessment

Galaxy Digital’s 2026 report underscores that uncertainty will remain a defining feature of the crypto market, but also makes clear that institutional adoption, ETFs, stablecoins, and DeFi innovation are strengthening the long-term foundation of the ecosystem. While short-term volatility is likely to persist for major networks such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, the report signals that crypto’s progression toward mainstream financial integration is firmly intact.

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This structural shift emerged as Bitcoin fell sharply from its early October peak near $126,000 to levels around $80,000. The move triggered a steep decline in risk appetite and siphoned liquidity out of the broader crypto market. The widespread deleveraging event on October 10 intensified the trend, erasing open interest across futures markets and weakening spot liquidity.

From Premiums to Discounts: DAT Equities Enter a New Era

Throughout the summer, many DAT companies traded at substantial premiums to their net asset value (NAV). That dynamic has now reversed. Despite Bitcoin being down only about 30% from its highs, most treasury-focused firms have seen significantly larger declines in their equity prices.

Companies such as Metaplanet and Nakamoto, which once showcased hundreds of millions in unrealized profits, are now facing substantial losses, as their average Bitcoin acquisition cost sits above $107,000. Galaxy points out that the collapse has been especially severe for NAKA, whose share price has dropped more than 98% from its peak — a drawdown the firm likens to the dramatic wipeouts seen in memecoin markets.

Three Scenarios That Could Define the Road Ahead

With the issuance window closing, Galaxy outlines three potential outcomes for DAT firms going forward:

Extended compression: A prolonged period in which equity premiums remain subdued, BTC-per-share growth stalls and DAT stocks carry greater downside risk than holding Bitcoin directly.

Consolidation: Firms that aggressively issued shares at high premiums, accumulated Bitcoin near cycle tops or took on excessive debt may face solvency challenges, potentially leading to acquisitions or restructuring.

Selective recovery: A rebound remains possible if Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs, but only for companies that preserved liquidity and avoided overleveraging during the expansion phase.

Strategy Bolsters Reserves as Dividend Concerns Rise

In response to mounting investor concern, Strategy CEO Phong Le announced the creation of a $1.44 billion cash reserve. Funded through an equity sale, the reserve aims to secure the company’s dividend and debt commitments for at least 12 months, with plans to extend this safety buffer to 24 months.

Meanwhile, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan emphasized that Strategy would not be forced to sell Bitcoin even if its share price declines, calling contrary claims “flat-out wrong.”

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BitMine Acquires 7,660 ETH from Galaxy Digital

BitMine has purchased 7,660 ETH, worth approximately $29.28 million, from Galaxy Digital. The move is widely viewed as a bullish signal for Ethereum, reinforcing institutional confidence in the asset.

BitMine Tops the Ethereum Treasury Holdings List

With a total of 3.23 million ETH, company currently ranks first on the global Ethereum Treasury Holdings list. The company’s Ethereum assets are now valued at over $12.5 billion. Over the past 30 days alone, BitMine added 585,114 ETH to its reserves, cementing its position as one of the most active institutional participants in the Ethereum ecosystem.

What Is BitMine?

BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. (NYSE American: BMNR) is a U.S.-based treasury management company with a strategic focus on Ethereum. The firm treats ETH as its primary treasury asset and participates in the network through staking and DeFi protocols, generating additional returns while supporting network activity.

BMNR shares allow investors to gain indirect exposure to Ethereum’s price movements without the need for a crypto wallet. This structure makes BitMine particularly appealing to both retail and institutional investors seeking regulated access to the Ethereum market.

What Do BMNR Shareholders Gain?

Ethereum Exposure: Company continuously increases its ETH holdings, expanding the amount of Ethereum backing each share.

Transparency and Compliance: As a publicly traded company, company provides regular SEC filings and investor disclosures, ensuring high transparency and regulatory oversight.

Liquidity: BMNR shares are traded on the U.S. stock exchange, offering investors flexible entry and exit opportunities during standard market hours.

Ecosystem Revenue: Beyond its holdings, BitMine also earns additional income from staking and DeFi operations, further enhancing shareholder value.

What is BitMine?

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New Bitcoin ETFs Bring Crypto Wealth to Wall Street

A regulatory change this summer allowed large investors to exchange Bitcoin for ETF shares. Known as an “in-kind transaction,” this process is generally tax-neutral, meaning no cash changes hands and no sale is recorded.

As a result, volatile digital assets now appear as a line item on brokerage statements, making it easier to use as collateral, borrow against, or include in estate plans. Robbie Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, stated that the firm has already facilitated over $3 billion in such conversions.

Liquidity provider Galaxy Digital has processed a few similar conversions, while Bitwise Asset Management President Teddy Fusaro noted that investor inquiries for ETF conversions arrive daily.

Bitcoin Whales Discover Traditional Finance Convenience

BlackRock Mitchnick, large Bitcoin holders are realizing the benefits of keeping exposure within their existing private banking or wealth management platforms. Born as a decentralized alternative to traditional finance, Bitcoin is now being gradually absorbed into regulated financial systems.

By exchanging Bitcoin for ETF shares, investors keep their cryptocurrency stake. This also allows them to pledge holdings as collateral, borrow against them, or include them in estate plans — tasks that are risky or cumbersome in private wallets.The ETF wrapper adds legitimacy and ease, turning previously off-grid wealth into assets that institutions can work with.

Fusaro highlighted the advantage for investors:

“An investor might have a $1 million portfolio on a wealth-management platform and $5 million worth of Bitcoin on a ledger. Moving Bitcoin into an ETF allows the platform to recognize them as a $6 million client, unlocking higher-tier services.”

Wall Street and Bitcoin Lines Blur

Mitchnick expects ETF conversions and bank participation to grow rapidly as regulations become clearer. Currently, some banks play a limited role, but they are increasingly involved in the ETF creation process.

“Some investors are going all-in, consolidating their holdings entirely within ETFs, as it’s the easiest way to manage their wealth,” Mitchnick added.

Wes Gray, CEO of Alpha Architect, which specializes in tax-aware ETFs, commented:

“Life is just easier in TradFi. Integration, access, and security have been perfected over a century. Ironically, Bitcoin was born to escape traditional finance, and now its largest holders are returning.”

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Galaxy’s Move into Individual Investors

Galaxy Digital is expanding its services, which have focused on financial institutions to date, to individual investors. The company’s new platform makes it easy for investors to buy and sell cryptocurrencies and stocks. It provides a user-friendly experience via a mobile app and aims to increase competition against major players in the industry.

The platform offers accredited investors an annual APY of 8%. This creates high-yield opportunities for investors. Additionally, the “GalaxyOne Cash” product provides an APY of 4% with no restrictions. This product appeals to a broader user base. Accounts are offered through Cross River Bank, providing a secure investment opportunity with FDIC insurance. Users can easily access high-interest cash deposit accounts. Thanks to this structure, investors earn secure and liquid returns and can easily meet their various needs.

You May Be Interested In: Million-Dollar Solana Purchase: Major Move from Galaxy Digital!

Supported Assets and Trading Options

GalaxyOne enables investors to trade on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. This allows investors to focus on the most secure and liquid crypto options. The platform also offers commission-free brokerage accounts. These accounts allow users to trade thousands of US-listed stocks and ETFs. Investors can access both digital assets and traditional stocks and funds from a single platform. This allows them to easily manage different investment strategies and diversify their portfolios.

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Solana Reserves Exceed $4 Billion

Figures from the Strategic Solana Reserve indicate that corporate entities have amassed $4.03 billion worth of SOL, marking a significant milestone for institutional adoption.

The largest participant is Forward Industries, holding around 6.8 million SOL valued at approximately $1.61 billion. Other firms, including Sharps Technology, DeFi Development Corp., and Upexi, each hold about 2 million SOL, with allocations surpassing $400 million.

Forward Industries Sparks a Wave of Purchases

Forward Industries first announced the creation of its Solana reserve on September 8, a move backed by major crypto-native investors such as Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto.

The announcement was followed by a major buying spree, with Galaxy Digital purchasing $306 million worth of SOL in a single day.

Adding to the momentum, Helius Medical Technologies launched its own $500 million Solana reserve, supported by heavyweight investors Pantera Capital and Summer Capital.

In a CNBC interview, Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead praised Solana as “the fastest, cheapest, and most efficient blockchain network”. He also revealed that his firm currently holds a $1.1 billion position in SOL.

Comparing Solana to Bitcoin and Ethereum Reserves

While Solana’s corporate reserves are expanding rapidly, they remain far behind those of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET shows that corporate treasuries collectively hold 3.71 million BTC, valued at approximately $428 billion—equal to about 17% of Bitcoin’s total supply of 21 million.

Ethereum reserves are also significantly larger. Nearly 5 million ETH, worth more than $22 billion, are held by institutions. Additionally, 6.77 million ETH, valued at around $30 billion, are currently held through ETFs.

Solana Gains Institutional Momentum

The latest figures highlight Solana’s growing appeal, not just among retail investors but also within the corporate sector. Crossing the $4 billion reserve threshold signals that Solana is increasingly being viewed as a long-term treasury asset.

Although Bitcoin and Ethereum still dominate institutional portfolios, Solana’s speed, cost-efficiency, and scalability advantages could continue to drive further institutional adoption in the coming years.

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A “Strong Possibility” for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

In a recent statement, Thorn suggested that the US government could officially confirm the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic national asset.

He emphasized that markets may be underestimating the likelihood of such an announcement, pricing in far less probability than what he believes is realistic.

Signs the Plan is Moving Forward on Bitcoin

In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order that set the framework for the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a broader Digital Asset Stockpile. While a detailed strategic plan hasn’t been released to the public yet, several developments suggest momentum is building.

Just days ago, US lawmakers introduced a bill requiring the Treasury Department to assess the feasibility and technical considerations of implementing the reserve. Additionally, by late July, the White House’s crypto liaison confirmed that the initiative remains on the administration’s agenda, despite limited references in its recent digital asset policy updates.

Skepticism Remains

Not all experts are convinced that progress will happen so quickly. Dave Weisberger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, argued that the timeline is more likely to stretch into 2026, pointing out that the government might prefer to quietly accumulate Bitcoin to a target threshold before making any public announcements.

The Risk of Falling Behind

Among Bitcoin advocates, there is growing concern that any delay could put the US at a disadvantage compared to other nations. Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, stressed earlier this year that the US “must start” acquiring Bitcoin in 2025 to avoid being front-run by other countries:

“The risk is that nations like Pakistan could act first if the US hesitates.”

This concern isn’t unfounded. Kyrgyzstan has already advanced legislation to establish a state-backed crypto reserve, while in Indonesia, Bitcoin advocacy groups have been in talks with government officials about how such a strategy could stimulate economic growth.

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Nearly $1 Billion in Ethereum in Just One Week

On-chain data reveals that in the past 24 hours alone, this “mystery buyer” acquired around $212 million worth of ETH. The holdings are spread across six separate wallets, with balances ranging from $128 million to $181 million each. The purchases were facilitated through Galaxy Digital, FalconX, and BitGo.

Ethereum’s Market Cap Surpasses Mastercard

The strong rally in ETH’s price pushed its market capitalization to $523 billion, surpassing payment giant Mastercard’s $519 billion valuation. Over the past seven days, ETH climbed past the $4,000 threshold, reaching $4,332 at its peak.

Public companies have also been increasing their exposure to Ethereum. In the last week alone, they added more than 304,000 ETH to their treasuries. BitMine Immersion Technologies led the way, buying over 208,000 ETH (worth more than $900 million), followed by SharpLink Gaming with a $303 million ETH purchase.

Analysts Eye the $20,000 Target

Many technical analysts are bullish, predicting that ETH could reach the $20,000 mark in the coming months. Some even suggest the price might exceed that level if current momentum continues.

However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has urged caution. While he supports companies holding ETH in their reserves, he warned against turning it into an “overleveraged game” that could harm the market in the long run.

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In addition to the initial $500 million gross proceeds, the private placement includes warrants which, if fully exercised, could bring in up to an additional $750 million in cash—significantly expanding the company’s financial capabilities.

New Tickers on Nasdaq: “BNC” and “BNCWW”

Effective Wednesday, August 6, 2025, CEA’s common stock will begin trading under the new ticker symbol “BNC” on the Nasdaq, while its publicly traded warrants will appear under “BNCWW”. This ticker update reflects the company’s renewed identity centered around its BNB treasury strategy. Moving forward, CEA will operate under the name “BNB Network Company.”

A Strategic Turning Point for BNB Adoption by CEA Industries

Incoming CEO David Namdar emphasized the significance of the change: “Our new ticker, BNC, represents strategic alignment with the BNB Chain ecosystem and a clear direction toward treasury growth.” He described the initiative as a major step in creating an institutional-grade vehicle offering investors secure, transparent access to one of the world’s most active blockchain networks.

As part of the treasury strategy, the company plans to acquire BNB as its primary reserve asset, utilizing the net proceeds from the raise for direct purchases.

Leadership Changes to Drive Vision

10X Capital will act as the asset manager for the BNB treasury strategy, with continued support from YZiLabs throughout the implementation.

Over 140 investors joined the funding round, including notable institutional and crypto-native backers like Pantera Capital, G-20 Group, Arche Capital, Exodus Point, GSR, Arrington Capital, Blockchain.com, Kenetic, and dao5. Key figures such as the Bitfury founders and Rajeev Misra’s family office were also among the participants.

As part of this evolution, David Namdar—co-founder of Galaxy Digital and a senior partner at 10X Capital—has taken over as CEO. Russell Read, former CIO of CalPERS and Deputy CIO at Deutsche Bank Asset Management, has joined as CIO. Meanwhile, former CEO Tony McDonald transitions into the role of President and retains his position on the board of directors.

Additionally, Hans Thomas (Founder and CEO of 10X Capital) and Alexander Monje (Partner and CLO at 10X Capital) will join the board, further strengthening the company’s strategic oversight.

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