The Halving Cycle May No Longer Define the Trend

Kendrick suggests that Bitcoin’s price action is no longer closely tied to traditional halving cycles. Historically, BTC has seen notable corrections roughly 18 months after each halving. However, with the most recent halving in April 2024, this pattern appears to be shifting.

The key reason? Unlike previous cycles, the current market is witnessing strong ETF inflows and increased corporate treasury accumulation. These new demand drivers are believed to be powerful enough to support Bitcoin’s continued upward trajectory.

Standard Chartered Eyes $500K by 2028

Looking further ahead, Standard Chartered maintains a long-term bullish stance. The bank forecasts Bitcoin could reach as high as $500,000 per coin by 2028, supported by increasing institutional adoption and tightening supply-demand dynamics.

Correction Risks Remain on the Table

While the outlook remains positive, Kendrick also cautions about potential price corrections toward the end of Q3 and beginning of Q4. The psychological impact of past halving cycles may still influence short-term volatility in the crypto markets.

In summary, Standard Chartered’s projection underlines a significant shift in the Bitcoin investment landscape, with institutional demand playing a growing role in price formation and long-term market structure.

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According to Kendrick, the decline in long-term interest rates for U.S. Treasury bonds and the diminishing term premium are negatively affecting Bitcoin’s appeal in the short term. The term premium refers to the additional return investors demand for holding long-term bonds. Kendrick mentioned that Bitcoin is seen as a hedge against instability in the traditional financial system, and the drop in the term premium is creating pressure on Bitcoin.

“One of Bitcoin’s main use cases is as a hedge against traditional financial problems. Therefore, the decline in the term premium could weaken Bitcoin, at least in the short term.”

Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong

Kendrick remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook, maintaining a year-end target of $125,000, with the possibility of reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Options Expirations Are Pressuring Bitcoin

Another factor affecting Bitcoin’s short-term price movements is the monthly options expirations that are scheduled for Friday. According to Deribit data, there are open positions for a total of 18,000 BTC in the price range of $85,000 to $100,000. Kendrick noted that this could limit price movements, and prices might stabilize as the expirations approach.

However, Kendrick emphasized that institutional demand remains strong, citing that since the U.S. elections, spot Bitcoin ETFs have purchased around 77,000 BTC, and MicroStrategy has acquired 134,000 BTC.

“MicroStrategy’s purchases are continuing without slowing down, and it’s unlikely they will sell. This could establish a floor for Bitcoin in the short term, in the range of $85,000 to $88,700.”

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Standard Chartered, a UK-based bank that provides a wide range of financial services and manages over $800 billion in assets, will offer spot trading services for Bitcoin and Ether. According to Bloomberg, a US media outlet, the newly created spot trading unit will be managed from London.

The unit, which will be under the bank’s FX department, is expected to open and start offering services shortly.

The bank’s chief analyst, Geoff Kendrick, has stated in many reports he has written recently that he thinks the Bitcoin price will reach $120,000 and the Ether price will reach $8,000 by the end of 2024. The analyst made a Bitcoin forecast of $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of 2025.

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