At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have been increasing Bitcoin’s dominance while causing capital outflows from altcoins. Moreover, the presence of more than 17 million altcoins in the market leads to excessive capital dispersion, hindering overall growth. Here are the top three reasons why the altcoin season is being delayed. 

Increased Altcoin Selling Pressure and Lack of Confidence 

CryptoQuant’s “1-Year Cumulative Bid/Ask Volume Delta” shows a continued net sell pressure of $36 billion in altcoins. This negative delta reflects a risk-off sentiment, with investors increasingly offloading their altcoin holdings. Investors seeking safer options have lost interest in altcoins in the short term. For a recovery, the buy volume must surpass the sell volume — a condition that has not yet been met. Analysts emphasize that this metric must turn positive for an altcoin season to begin. 

Geopolitical Instability and Bitcoin Dominance 

Recent global conflicts, such as the Israel-Iran clash, have negatively impacted the altcoin market. In such crises, investors turn to Bitcoin as a safe haven. While Bitcoin shows price volatility, altcoins suffer deeper losses. As a result, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has surpassed 64% and continues its upward trend with six consecutive green weekly candles. Analysts believe that geopolitical risks could persist for weeks or even months, keeping risk-averse sentiment high toward altcoins. This makes a near-term altcoin season unlikely. 

Record Increase in Altcoin Numbers and Market Dilution 

According to CoinMarketCap, the number of altcoin projects exceeded 17.34 million as of June 2025 — a staggering 850x increase compared to the end of 2021. However, this surge has caused extreme market fragmentation. Capital is spread too thin across countless small tokens, limiting overall market growth. The total altcoin market cap stands at $1.13 trillion, still 30% below its 2021 peak. As a result, most small projects struggle to succeed. Nonetheless, major projects like Ethereum, Solana, and XRP continue to attract investor attention. Even if an altcoin season begins, only strong, select projects are likely to benefit. 

Bitcoin Struggles to Surpass the $112K Threshold – Here’s Why 

Due to high sell pressure, growing Bitcoin dominance fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, and excessive capital dilution across the altcoin space, it may take longer for altcoins to recover. Until market conditions and investor sentiment improve, expecting a full-fledged altcoin season might be unrealistic. Investors would be wise to focus on fundamentally strong major projects. 

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This resistance continues to block Bitcoin’s attempts to climb back to $112,000. This stagnant movement is mainly due to investors remaining cautious amid geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties. Particularly, rising tensions in the Middle East, conflicts between Israel and Iran, and cyberattacks are undermining investor confidence. 

Iran-based cryptocurrency exchange Nobitex was attacked by a pro-Israel hacker group, resulting in a $81 million loss. This incident exposed the vulnerability of crypto assets during geopolitical cyber conflicts. Bitcoin is often promoted as “digital gold,” but during times of crisis, it underperforms compared to traditional safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. While gold approached all-time highs this week, BTC lost 3.6% in value just last week. 

Fed Decision and Inflation Concerns Weigh on Bitcoin 

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate steady at 4.25–4.50% during its June 18 meeting. However, its ongoing hawkish stance against inflation increased pressure on risk assets. Due to a core PCE inflation rate of 2.8% and potential trade policies from Trump, the Fed reduced expectations for rate cuts. 

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the FOMC now projects only two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, down from four previously. Markets are currently pricing in just a 58.4% chance of a rate cut in September. 

This scenario strengthens the U.S. dollar while putting further pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Diminishing liquidity expectations reduce demand for digital assets. According to QCP Capital’s June 18 report, the Fed is likely to make only one rate cut, limiting Bitcoin’s upward momentum. 

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Institutional interest in U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs gained renewed momentum on Wednesday, with a total net inflow of $390.4 million — nearly double the previous day’s amount. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way with a single-day inflow of $280 million, further cementing its dominance. 

Robust Institutional Demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs 

Fidelity’s FBTC product also drew attention with over $100 million in inflows, signaling growing investor confidence and a stabilizing market. During this period, BlackRock added 2,861 new Bitcoins to its portfolio, bringing its total BTC holdings to 680,336. 

Since the beginning of 2025, total net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $11.25 billion, underlining the continuing rise in institutional demand. Notably, Bitcoin ETF products have posted positive net inflows for eight consecutive trading days. 

Bitcoin and Gold Strengthen Amid Geopolitical Tensions 

Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have heightened risk perception in global markets. With potential interventions from the U.S. and the U.K., investors have turned to safe-haven assets. This climate has seen an uptick in both BTC ETF inflows and gold prices. 

At the same time, BTC’s price held steady at the $104,000 level, maintaining its resilience. According to on-chain data, the STH/LTH Supply Ratio dropped to 15.7%, indicating reduced activity among short-term holders and continued confidence from long-term investors. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s decision to maintain interest rates following the recent FOMC meeting has also reinforced a “wait-and-see” sentiment in the markets. Despite geopolitical risks, crypto assets continue to attract solid institutional interest. 

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