Geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in interest rate expectations have led institutions to allocate capital to gold and silver. Silver, in particular, has amplified gold’s movement due to limited supply and sensitivity to speculative flows. Gold surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, showing strong performance compared to Bitcoin. Silver rose to $72.27, supporting gold’s movement.

10X Research founder Markus Thielen argues that Bitcoin’s lag in 2025 is primarily because the “digital gold” narrative has failed to attract institutional capital on Wall Street. While physical assets like gold and copper posted strong gains, Bitcoin did not gain enough from safe-haven or tech-focused investments.

Bitcoin Investors Remain Cautious

Bitcoin is still seen as a high-volatility risk asset. In risk-off periods, capital flows first into gold and government bonds, while Bitcoin remains secondary.

According to CryptoQuant, apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative. Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR remains below 1, indicating that short-term investors are exiting at a loss or break-even, increasing selling pressure. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss of a coin by comparing purchase and sale prices.

Macro Factors Limit Bitcoin’s Upside

Gold and silver have long-term, less price-sensitive investor bases, whereas Bitcoin remains dependent on short-term positioning and marginal demand. Hence, macroeconomic tailwinds alone cannot drive Bitcoin higher.

• Gold prices have risen around 12% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases.

• Silver has increased about 15% due to tighter supply and speculative demand.

• Bitcoin, by contrast, has remained sideways, fluctuating between 3–5%.

Bitcoin vs Gold Performance

The BTC-gold ratio, which shows the amount of gold required to buy one Bitcoin, fell from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024 to 20 ounces in 2025, a 50% drop. This reflects strong gold performance and institutional inflows rather than a collapse in Bitcoin demand.

Central banks purchased 254 tons of gold by October, and global gold ETF assets rose by 397 tons in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin demand weakened in H2; managed assets in spot ETFs declined from $152B to $112B, and long-term holders sold more than 500,000 BTC.

What Investors Should Expect

XWIN Research Japan’s base scenario:

• Gold and silver remain supported by safe-asset flows.

• Bitcoin’s upside is limited by weak demand and short-term investor pressure.

However, if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR stabilizes above 1, this assessment should be revisited.

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FED Easing Expectations Add Momentum to Gold

According to Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, metal entered the week with solid buying interest. He noted that, despite the recent decline in the probability of a rate cut, investors still anticipate a policy easing move from the Federal Reserve next month. Waterer added that ongoing concerns in financial markets continue to support appetite for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Weakening Economic Signals Reinforce Policy Outlook

Economic data published last week revealed that the U.S. economy shed jobs in October. Declines in government and retail employment, combined with cost-cutting measures fueled by artificial intelligence adoption across businesses, contributed to an uptick in layoffs.

In addition, a survey released in early November showed that U.S. consumer confidence had dropped to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years. Analysts pointed out that concerns over what could become the longest government shutdown in history are weighing heavily on consumer spending. These developments have strengthened market expectations that the Fed may opt for a rate cut in its final meeting of the year.

Data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that investors now assign a 67% probability to a December rate reduction. A lower interest rate environment generally increases the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold, providing further price support.

Renewed Demand for Gold-Backed ETFs

Alongside physical buying, movements in gold-backed exchange-traded funds are also drawing attention. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold ETF, reported that its holdings rose from 1,040.35 tons on Thursday to 1,042.06 metric tons on Friday—a 0.16% increase. This uptick underscores the continued investor shift toward gold amid rising macroeconomic uncertainties.

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Potential Impacts on the Crypto Market

The adoption of these ETFs could have a number of impacts on the cryptocurrency market. By creating a reliable platform for institutional investors, they could increase demand for Bitcoin and reduce volatility in the market. Also, the effects that similar financial instruments have created in other asset classes in the past suggest that they could also provide similar potential returns for Bitcoin.

Similarities from the Past to the Present

The events that occurred after the approval of previous ETFs show the potential of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. For example, the approval of the Gold ETF led to an increase in gold prices of over 300%. Additionally, the approval of Bitcoin futures ETFs also had a major impact on the market in a similar way.

Current Situation and Expectations for the Bitcoin ETF

The applications for Spot Bitcoin ETFs by leading asset management companies, especially giant companies such as BlackRock, are increasing the potential for Bitcoin to reach a wider investor base. These companies’ steps in this area could be a harbinger of a major transformation in the cryptocurrency world.

Expected Increases in Bitcoin Value and Logic

Bitcoin’s market capitalization and global investment potential show potential increases in Bitcoin’s value with the approval of such ETFs. With large amounts of investment flowing into Bitcoin, there could be significant increases in the value of Bitcoin.

A New Era Ahead for the Crypto World

Spot Bitcoin ETFs represent a significant change in the cryptocurrency world. Also, monitoring the impact of these financial instruments on the market offers a great opportunity for investors. Investors can closely monitor how these developments could affect the potential increases in the value of Bitcoin.

The post Bitcoin ETF: A Revolution in the Crypto Market appeared first on Coin Engineer.