The market reaction was swift. As geopolitical risk premiums began to ease, oil prices declined, and some investors rotated into crypto assets. However, new statements released just hours later indicated that uncertainty had not fully disappeared.

“The War Is Ending” Message Hits Oil Prices

Trump said that the US military had struck more than 3,000 Iranian targets during the first week of operations, adding that Iran’s military capabilities had been significantly weakened.

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much. If you look at it from a military standpoint, there’s very little left.”

These remarks triggered rapid market pricing. Oil prices fell from a four-year high of $118 to around $85 within hours. The sharp decline in energy markets was interpreted as a signal that geopolitical risk premiums were quickly unwinding.

Still, the situation was far from clear. Later comments on the same day suggested a very different tone.

Safe-Haven Assets Also Move

The uncertainty created by geopolitical tensions did not only affect oil and crypto markets. Precious metals also recorded upward momentum.

In international markets, gold rose 0.46% to $5,168 per ounce. In Türkiye’s domestic market, gram gold traded at 7,317 TL, while quarter gold reached 11,960 TL and Republic gold climbed to 47,701 TL.

The movement in precious metals was not limited to gold. Silver also surged 2.9% to $89.49.

Despite falling oil prices, the rise in gold and silver suggests that investors are not yet fully convinced that geopolitical risks have disappeared.

A Much Harsher Tone Hours Later

Trump later issued a far stronger warning on his social media platform Truth Social.

He said that if Iran attempts to disrupt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would respond with force “twenty times stronger” than previous strikes. Trump also suggested that targets could be hit that would make it nearly impossible for Iran to rebuild its military capacity.

The language in the post drew particular attention:

“Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — but I hope that does not happen.”

Such statements briefly confused markets. Initial comments suggested the conflict was nearing its end, while later remarks implied the war could still continue.

Florida Speech: “We Haven’t Won Enough Yet”

Trump’s speech at a Republican fundraising event in Florida presented a similarly mixed message.

While he stated that the United States had already achieved significant gains, he also indicated that operations could continue until a final victory is secured.

“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough. We move forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory and end this danger once and for all.”

These remarks reinforced the idea that geopolitical tensions may persist for some time.

Why Did the Crypto Market Rise?

While oil declined, the cryptocurrency market responded positively. Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market value increased by roughly 3%, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $70,000 level.

Ethereum is currently trading slightly above $2,000.

Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at crypto trading software provider SignalPlus, said markets are cautious about pricing political headlines directly.

According to Fan, investors remain skeptical of headline statements.

“It’s difficult to take these comments at face value. Other cabinet members say the conflict is still in its early stages, and US military assets remain deployed in the region.”

Fan added that in the short term, the crypto market is likely to follow broader risk assets rather than a standalone narrative. The nearly $30 swing in oil prices within 24 hours has been a key driver of macro market sentiment.

The Bigger Question: How Long Will Uncertainty Last?

Andri Fauzan Adziima, Research Lead at crypto exchange Bitrue, pointed to a different scenario.

If Trump’s claim that the war is nearing its end proves accurate, crypto markets could see a strong relief rally. Lower oil prices could ease inflation pressures and boost investor risk appetite.

For now, however, uncertainty remains.

Adziima noted several factors still clouding the outlook:

• Iran’s responses remain aggressive

• Military activity in the region continues

• Diplomatic signals remain mixed

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has already rejected Trump’s claims that the war is nearing its end, stating that Iran will determine how and when the conflict concludes.

For that reason, even if short-term relief rallies appear in markets, it may still be too early to say geopolitical uncertainty has fully disappeared.

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Investors have flocked to safe-haven assets amid rising inflation concerns and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s independence. JPMorgan analysts have dubbed this shift the “debasement trade.”

Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff reiterated that gold remains the true store of value. Schiff said, “Bitcoin follows other risk assets… it is not a safe-haven store of value like gold. The world is moving from the dollar back to gold.”

Bitcoin: Safe Haven or Risk Asset?

BTC sharp decline coincided with rising global tensions. Trade disputes between China and the U.S., coupled with growing U.S. fiscal deficits, are rattling investors. According to JPMorgan, the macroeconomic environment remains favorable for debasement hedge strategies, with high inflation, mounting debt, and geopolitical uncertainty pressuring fiat systems.

Over the past week, Bitcoin fell 8% while gold gained nearly 6%, casting doubt on BTC’s safe-haven credentials. Users on X commented, “Debasement trade feels more like a meme now,” noting Bitcoin’s growing correlation with tech stocks rather than traditional inflation hedges.

Gold and Bitcoin: Is the Debasement Trade Still Relevant?

BTC proponents argue that gold and Bitcoin can complement each other as long-term stores of value against fiat risk. Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, wrote on X, “Bitcoin and gold will outlast all other currencies.” On-chain data also shows increasing BTC-gold correlation, indicating that investors continue to hold both assets side by side in portfolios.

However, critics like Schiff warn that institutional inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could revert back to gold. He also cautioned that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets might be forced to sell during downturns, adding further price pressure.

The Future of the Debasement Trade

As demand for non-fiat assets rises, investors’ time horizons and risk tolerance determine which asset they prefer. Gold benefits from centuries of trust and institutional legitimacy, while BTC offers digital portability and fixed supply but remains volatile and sentiment-driven.

• Gold: Safe haven, institutional trust, record prices

• Bitcoin: Digital portability, fixed supply, high volatility

• Debasement Trade: Long-term hedge strategy against inflation and fiat risk

This divergence between gold and Bitcoin forces investors to reconsider strategic decisions. Despite short-term volatility, the debasement trade debate remains relevant for long-term hedging strategies.

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