At first glance, the data presents a calm picture since the figures aligned perfectly with forecasts. However, in macroeconomic indicators, the most important message is sometimes hidden in numbers that do not change. The fact that inflation has remained at the same level for two consecutive months suggests that price pressures have not completely disappeared, yet a new acceleration phase has not emerged either.

Core Inflation Remains Sticky

Alongside the headline figure, another key indicator closely monitored by markets is core inflation (Core CPI). Annual core inflation, which excludes food and energy components, was 2.5% in February 2026, the same level recorded in January.

This pattern indicates that certain components of inflation still display a “sticky” structure. Price pressures—particularly within the services sector and some essential consumption categories—are easing more slowly, which keeps the core data relatively elevated.

In other words, the persistence of inflation is also visible in the core measure; core CPI remaining steady at 2.5% year-over-year suggests that price pressures across the broader economy have not yet been fully broken.

Markets Show a “Calm but Cautious” Reaction

Because the data matched expectations, financial markets did not experience sharp price movements. Still, a noticeable balance-seeking behavior appeared across several major assets.

• US Dollar Index (DXY): Continued its sideways movement without a significant deviation after the data release.

• Gold: Spot gold prices remained near the $5,190 resistance zone, reflecting the slower pace of disinflation.

• US 10-year Treasury yields: Continued hovering around 4%, as concerns persist that the Fed may delay potential rate cuts.

Overall, the reaction suggests that markets interpreted the data not as a major surprise but rather as confirmation of existing expectations.

All Eyes on the March Fed Meeting

Following the inflation release, market attention has now shifted toward the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed’s next interest rate decision meeting is scheduled for March 17–18, 2026.

The updated economic projections, growth forecasts, and signals regarding the future rate path that will be released during this meeting could shape the direction of monetary policy for the rest of the year. In particular, the speed at which inflation moves toward the Fed’s target will remain a key factor in determining the timing of potential rate cuts.

For now, the consensus across markets is relatively clear: the data appears calm, but the Fed’s signals will ultimately determine the next move.

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According to her analysis, the divergence in market sentiment between the two assets could create conditions where Bitcoin eventually outperforms gold.

A Shifting Dynamic Between Bitcoin and Gold

Alden points out that market behavior between Bitcoin and gold often follows a cyclical pattern. Periods of strong performance in one asset can eventually be followed by renewed momentum in the other. From her perspective, the current environment suggests that Bitcoin may be positioned to regain strength after gold’s recent surge.

Looking at the next two to three years, Alden believes the probability of Bitcoin outperforming gold in terms of price appreciation is relatively high. If she were forced to choose between the two assets under current conditions, she says she would lean toward Bitcoin.

Strong Optimism Surrounding Gold

Gold prices have recently reached new highs, climbing to approximately $5,608 in January. This sharp increase has significantly boosted investor interest in the precious metal.

However, Alden does not characterize the current situation as a speculative bubble. Instead, she describes it as a period of strong optimism among market participants. Several sentiment indicators support this view. One index measuring investor mood in the gold market recently reached 72 out of 100, placing it firmly within the “greed” territory.

Such readings suggest that investors are currently very bullish on gold.

Cautious Sentiment in the Bitcoin Market

In contrast, sentiment toward Bitcoin appears considerably more conservative. Indicators tracking market psychology in the cryptocurrency sector recently signaled “extreme fear,” reflecting a more defensive attitude among investors.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $71,000, which is roughly 44% below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October. Alden suggests that this gap between price levels and investor sentiment could indicate that the market is overly pessimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects.

Bitcoin and Gold Do Not Always Move Together

Bitcoin is frequently compared with gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. Because of this narrative, many investors refer to Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

However, Alden stresses that the relationship between the two assets is not always consistent. There are periods when Bitcoin and gold rise together, but there are also times when their price movements diverge significantly.

For this reason, she cautions against relying too heavily on a fixed narrative when evaluating the interaction between the two markets.

Diverging Views on Bitcoin’s Long-Term Role

Not all investors agree on Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset. Some critics argue that gold maintains a stronger position because it is widely held by central banks as part of their reserve portfolios, giving it a long-established status in the global financial system.

At the same time, many analysts within the cryptocurrency industry believe the connection between Bitcoin and gold is gradually strengthening. In periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, both assets are increasingly viewed as alternative stores of value, reinforcing their roles in diversified portfolios.

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Meanwhile, the Dollar Index traded slightly lower at 99, but the weekly picture is different: the index is set for about a 1.4% gain this week, its strongest since November 2024.

• Gold (XAU/USD): 5,122.71 USD
• Euro (EUR/USD): 1.1612 USD
• USD/JPY: 157.5 Yen
• Brent Crude: 85 USD

Middle East Tensions Drive Dollar Demand

At the start of the week, markets had priced in a short-lived diplomatic easing. However, news from the field quickly erased that expectation.

US and Israeli warplanes struck certain areas in Iran, while Gulf cities faced renewed bombardment. Iran warned that the sinking of an Iranian warship would be “a step Washington will bitterly regret.”

Investors’ reflexes in this atmosphere are familiar:

• Dollar strengthens

• Risk assets face pressure

• Energy prices surge

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore notes that if the current intensity of the tension persists, the picture could become clearer: higher inflation, a stronger dollar, and a reduced chance of Fed rate cuts.

Oil Prices Rekindle Inflation Concerns

The first market impact of geopolitical risk has been on energy.

Brent crude futures surged to 85 USD, reaching the highest level since 2024. Weekly gains are roughly 5%, marking one of the sharpest weekly jumps since March 2022.

This surge in energy prices particularly means new inflationary pressures for economies dependent on energy imports.

The market scenario is simple:

high oil → higher inflation → later interest rate cuts.

This shift in rate expectations is also visible in money market instruments. Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) indicate that the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut has been postponed to either September or October.

Euro and Yen Under Pressure

Against the stronger dollar, major currencies spent the week on the defensive.

• Euro: around 1.1612 USD, flat

• Japanese Yen: 157.5 per USD

• Sterling: 1.3361 USD

Major pairs may look stable, but the trend is clear: dollar strength dominates.

Skye Masters, head of market research at National Australia Bank, highlights two historical experiences in investors’ minds: post-pandemic supply shocks and inflation after the Russia-Ukraine war. A new energy-driven price spike is therefore seen as a serious risk.

Global Markets Volatility

Tensions are not limited to currency markets. Equities and bonds also faced pressure.

On Thursday, US stock indices saw sharp declines:

• Dow Jones: down ~785 points (%1.6)

• S&P 500: down ~0.6%

• Nasdaq Composite: down ~0.3%

Dow Jones thus approaches its worst weekly performance since October.

Meanwhile, futures markets show limited recovery signs:

• Dow Jones futures

• S&P 500 futures

• Nasdaq 100 futures

All trade slightly higher on the final day, yet market sentiment remains cautious.

Crypto Markets See Limited Pullback

During geopolitical risk periods, crypto markets often react in complex ways. This time is no exception.

• Bitcoin: ~70,956 USD

• Ethereum: ~2,074 USD

Daily declines for both assets hover around 0.3%, suggesting risk mitigation rather than panic selling.

Eyes on US Employment Data

Geopolitical developments dominate, but macro data still matters.

Recent data show:

• Weekly jobless claims remained unchanged

• Layoffs fell sharply in February

Economists are now focused on nonfarm payrolls. Surveys predict 59,000 new jobs in the US for February, after 130,000 in January.

Economists expect the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% in February.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Analysts see room for the dollar to stay strong short-term, largely tied to the risk premium in oil prices.

Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, notes that dollar gains will depend on how the Iran geopolitical process unfolds. If the conflict remains contained, markets may rebalance.

For now, the picture is different. Risk appetite is low. Energy prices are high. And the dollar… naturally strong.

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Risk perception across global markets has clearly intensified in recent days. During Asian trading hours, spot gold climbed 0.7 percent to $5,368 per ounce. Prices had already reached their highest level in more than four weeks in the previous session and maintained upward momentum into the new trading day. Meanwhile, U.S. April gold futures rose 1.5 percent to around $5,391.90 per ounce.

How Much Is Gram Gold Today?

The rise in international gold prices has also affected domestic markets in Türkiye. Combined with exchange-rate effects, gold prices in the local market moved upward as well.

As of the morning of March 3, 2026, gram gold is trading around 7,590 Turkish lira, up approximately 0.7 percent. As long as geopolitical risk pricing continues in global markets, volatility in gram gold prices may also persist.

Market analysts note that safe-haven demand could strengthen further if the conflict expands. During periods of uncertainty, gold often becomes one of the first assets investors turn to.

Why Are Gold Prices Rising?

Several key factors are driving the latest surge in gold prices. First, escalating military tensions in the Middle East have significantly increased risk perception in global markets.

Second, investor demand for safe-haven assets has risen sharply. In times of uncertainty, portfolios often shift part of their allocation toward gold.

Another major factor comes from the energy market. Rising oil prices are bringing global inflation concerns back into focus. When inflation expectations increase, gold typically gains demand as a hedge.

Why Are Oil Prices Increasing?

The main driver behind the rise in oil prices is developments around the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iranian media reports, a senior official from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the strait had been closed and warned that ships attempting to pass through the area could be targeted.

This statement triggered serious concerns in energy markets. Roughly 20 percent of global oil trade passes through this strategic waterway.

While a full disruption has not yet occurred, markets often price potential risks rather than confirmed events. The upward pressure on oil prices reflects exactly this scenario.

What Happens If the Strait of Hormuz Closes?

This is currently the most critical scenario discussed in energy markets. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly disrupt global oil supply.

According to experts, such a scenario could lead to rapid and sharp increases in oil prices, as this route is one of the most important transit points for global energy shipments.

For this reason, energy markets are closely watching not only the military developments but also potential disruptions in maritime trade.

Why Isn’t Gold Falling While the Dollar Is Strong?

Under normal market conditions, a stronger U.S. dollar tends to put pressure on gold prices. When the dollar gains value, gold becomes more expensive for investors holding other currencies.

However, this relationship often shifts during geopolitical crises.

The U.S. dollar index has remained near a five-week high, while gold prices have continued to climb at the same time. This suggests a classic safe-haven reaction in financial markets. Investors are moving toward both the dollar and gold simultaneously.

Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, notes that gold’s rise despite the strong dollar highlights the level of geopolitical risk currently priced into markets. According to him, higher oil prices and potential disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could push global inflation concerns back to the forefront.

Trump Signals New Wave of Attacks

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that operations against Iran would continue “for as long as necessary.” He also warned that a new and larger wave of attacks could occur soon, although he did not provide specific operational details.

The conflict is already affecting more than just military dynamics. Civilian casualties have been reported in Iran, Israel, and Lebanon. Global air travel has faced disruptions, and maritime trade in the region has slowed significantly. Shipping activity near the Strait of Hormuz has declined notably.

Other Precious Metals Also Move Higher

Rising geopolitical tensions have not only affected gold but also other precious metals.

Spot silver rose 1.4 percent to $90.67 per ounce, reaching its highest level in four weeks.

Platinum climbed 0.6 percent to $2,316.50, while palladium gained 1.6 percent to $1,795.08.

Global markets will likely focus on three major developments in the coming days: whether the conflict in the Middle East expands, the status of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of energy prices on global inflation.

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From Sharp Rally to Correction — and Back Again

In recent months, both gold and silver experienced substantial rallies that pushed prices sharply higher. However, those rapid advances were followed by a corrective phase, largely driven by profit-taking from short-term investors. As speculative positioning cooled, prices temporarily retraced.

Now, a combination of geopolitical tensions and persistent global economic uncertainty appears to be restoring buying interest in the precious metals complex. Historically, when risk factors intensify across financial markets, capital tends to rotate into defensive assets. The latest price action suggests that this traditional pattern is once again unfolding.

Geopolitical Tensions Reinforce Safe-Haven Appeal of Gold

Escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel have contributed to heightened market caution. Periods of geopolitical strain often amplify demand for safe-haven instruments, and gold remains one of the primary beneficiaries of such flows.

With spot gold reaching $5,278, the market is reflecting a renewed preference for capital preservation amid uncertainty. Gold’s long-standing role as a store of value during crises and conflicts continues to underpin its upward bias in times of instability.

Silver Gains Strength from Industrial and AI Demand

Silver’s rally, however, is not solely tied to safe-haven demand. At $93.79 per ounce and a daily gain exceeding 6%, silver’s price dynamics also reflect robust industrial fundamentals. Demand linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductor production, and advanced manufacturing technologies is increasingly influencing silver’s valuation.

Unlike gold, silver straddles both monetary and industrial roles. As AI-driven industries expand and technological investments accelerate, silver’s strategic importance within supply chains becomes more pronounced.

With geopolitical risks and structural industrial demand converging, precious metals currently benefit from dual support mechanisms. Market participants will be closely monitoring global developments to assess whether this upward trajectory can be sustained in the coming period.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Financial markets involve significant risk, and independent research should be conducted before making investment decisions.

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Spot Gold Holds Firm Above Recent Highs

Spot gold climbed to $5,197 per ounce, marking a 0.60% daily gain. Earlier in the week, the metal tested its highest level in more than three weeks, maintaining a constructive upward bias. In contrast, April gold futures in the United States slipped 0.3% to $5,208.80 per ounce, reflecting a degree of short-term positioning adjustments in the derivatives market.

The divergence between spot and futures pricing suggests that while immediate demand remains resilient, some traders are reassessing forward expectations amid macroeconomic crosscurrents.

Dollar Weakness Offers Support

The U.S. dollar index remained subdued despite stronger-than-expected earnings from Nvidia, which typically would have bolstered broader risk appetite and supported the currency. Instead, the dollar’s softness made dollar-denominated gold more attractive for investors holding other currencies.

Market strategists attribute the recent price action to a combination of renewed tariff uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and repricing in foreign exchange markets. Expectations surrounding central bank policy are also shaping sentiment. According to CME FedWatch data, investors anticipate three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Upcoming weekly jobless claims data could provide additional clarity on the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Tariff Concerns and Geneva Talks in Focus

Trade policy remains a key variable. The U.S. Trade Representative signaled that the existing 10% tariff on certain countries could be raised to 15% or higher, though no specific nations were identified. The lack of detail has kept global trade outlook concerns alive.

Meanwhile, diplomatic developments are unfolding in Geneva, where Iranian and U.S. officials are set to meet following prolonged nuclear disputes and regional tensions. The outcome of these discussions may influence risk perception across Middle Eastern markets and beyond.

Silver, Platinum, and Palladium Performance

Among other precious metals, silver eased 0.1% to $89.29 per ounce after reaching a three-week high in the previous session.

Platinum advanced 0.3% to $2,292.83, while palladium declined 0.2% to $1,791.79. Both metals had recently touched three-week peaks.

In the current climate, movements in the dollar and geopolitical headlines are likely to remain central drivers of precious metal pricing dynamics.

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Why Gold and Silver Are Rising

Platinum and palladium also climbed, testing three-week peaks, with platinum reaching $2,244.85 per ounce and palladium $1,811.37 per ounce. These gains reflect both trade uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

The US has temporarily imposed a 10% global import tariff, with plans to raise it to 15% according to White House officials. The Supreme Court had previously struck down parts of former President Donald Trump’s measures, creating confusion over tariff policy. Investors have turned to gold in Asian markets to hedge this uncertainty.

Gold had reached its highest three-week level earlier in the day, but profit-taking pushed it down, closing the previous session more than 1% lower. Analysts note that gold’s upward potential remains as long as US fiscal and trade policy uncertainty persists. Analyst Rodda said, “The potential for further gains in gold remains high, especially if US fiscal and foreign policy actions continue.”

Two US Federal Reserve officials said there are no short-term plans to change monetary policy. According to CME FedWatch, the market currently expects three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.

Geopolitical Developments Driving Metal Prices

Geopolitical developments are also affecting metals. President Trump’s Tuesday remarks outlining potential action against Iran and preventing nuclear weapons created market volatility. Sources close to the talks indicate Iran is nearing an agreement to purchase anti-ship missiles from China. Iran and the US will hold the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva on Thursday.

Metal Futures – Spot and Futures (February 25, 2026)

• Palladium: $1,837, +19.3 (+1.06%), volume: 608

• Gold: $5,213.5, +37.2 (+0.72%), volume: 25,101

• Platinum: $2,282.9, +95.6 (+4.37%), volume: 4,974

• Silver: $90.47, +2.964 (+3.39%), volume: 7,174

• Copper: $5.963, +0.033 (+0.55%), volume: 2,120

Spot silver rose to $89.92 per ounce, a three-week high, following Monday’s two-week peak. Platinum and palladium showed similar momentum.

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A Strange Energy in Gold Markets After a Historic Collapse

Following a historic crash, the gold market is showing unusual momentum. The metal briefly surpassed $5,600 per ounce, then experienced one of the sharpest daily declines in decades; yet investors continue to aggressively bet on gold reaching $20,000. December 15,000–20,000 USD gold call option spreads have accumulated around 11,000 contracts, indicating serious positioning on such high-priced instruments.

In January 2026, metal futures volumes at the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 86%, prompting 38 regulatory interventions. Analysts remain divided: some foresee a long-term bull market, while others warn of risks from excessive speculative positioning.

Walter Bloomberg commented, “$20,000 gold option contracts continue rising despite the record selling wave. Even after a historic correction, high-priced bullish bets are increasing. Prices may consolidate around $5,000, but roughly 11,000 contracts are in play.” This highlights the scale of positions taken far from current prices.

Speculation and Macroeconomics: Drivers Behind the Rally

These high-risk trades function like low-cost, high-potential bets. For these spreads to end profitably, gold would need to nearly triple by December, requiring a major macroeconomic or geopolitical shock. However, these positions are already influencing market psychology, increasing implied volatility and fueling aggressive upward demand.

Macro analyst Michael van de Poppe stated, “Gold may consolidate for 1–2 years in the short term, but that doesn’t mean we are not in a bigger bull market. Actually, we are. That’s why I plan to buy gold during a 30–50% drop ahead.” This view reflects growing belief that gold’s rise is driven by structural changes in the global financial system, not just cyclical factors.

Short-Term Volatility and Risks

While long-term bullish expectations remain, short-term volatility stays high. Commodity strategist Ole Hansen noted that falling US inflation and declining bond yields have supported gold, but trading volume and liquidity in China can significantly affect short-term prices.

The rally in metals coincides with a surge in speculative activity in aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin futures in China. Exchanges tightened margin requirements and trading rules repeatedly, showing the market is overheating. Additionally, central bank diversification and China’s shift from US Treasuries to gold reinforce macro-geopolitical support for demand.

However, not all are convinced of sustainability. Commodity strategist Mike McGlone warned that excessive positioning has historically preceded corrections, and high volatility plus speculative flows could leave markets vulnerable if macro conditions change.

Gold Price Pullback: February 17, 2026 Analysis

Holiday quiet in Asian markets and a strong dollar continue to weigh on gold. Fell nearly 1% to $4,947, April US gold futures dropped 1.6% to $4,966.

Three key reasons for the decline stand out: a stronger dollar, low trading volumes in China and neighboring markets, and easing geopolitical tensions. According to CME FedWatch, the market expects three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Fed this year. Normally this would support gold, but the dollar’s resilience is currently offsetting that effect.

Silver followed a similar path, dropping roughly 2.7% due to dollar pressure. Investors now await market direction after the holiday, with eyes on upcoming Fed minutes and US GDP data.

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in January following a 0.3% increase in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.3% rise. These data points applied slight pressure on gold prices, while spot gold showed sudden fluctuations. Gram gold traded around 7,222 TL. In the short term, this pullback makes recovery difficult, and without a shift in the dollar’s trend, upward momentum is likely limited.

Inflation Data and Fed Outlook Influence Gold

CPI readings played a key role in short-term market movements. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that interest rates could fall, though service-sector inflation remains elevated. Markets expect the Fed to keep rates steady at its March 18 meeting. Futures pricing indicates a total 75 basis points of cuts this year, with the first expected in July. Historically, non-yielding precious metals perform well in low-interest-rate environments. Tim Waterer added, “Gold will likely need the dollar to resume its downtrend to push toward $6,000 by year-end.”

Why Did Bitcoin and Gold & Silver Fall?

Other Metals and Geopolitical Developments

Silver rose 3% on Friday but fell 3.2% on Monday to $74.50 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.4% to $2,054.78, and palladium declined 0.2% to $1,682.44. Geopolitical developments are also weighing on the market. U.S. military officials are reportedly preparing for a potential weeks-long operation against Iran if President Donald Trump authorizes an attack, which could escalate tensions far beyond recent clashes.

Local Market Snapshot

As of 08:50 Turkish time, HAS Gold was trading around 7,291 TL, reflecting a roughly 1.10% daily drop. Gram gold remained near 7,327 TL.

• HAS: 7,258.83 / 7,291.27 TL, -1.09%

• Spot : 4,984.8 / 4,985.4 USD, -1.16%

• Gram : 7,222.54 / 7,327.73 TL, -1.09%

• Gold/Silver Ratio: 59.03 / 66.54, +1.28%

Profit-taking and low trading volumes continue to pressure both international and local prices.

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Gold Extends Losses as Dollar Strengthens

Spot gold declined 0.3% on Thursday to $5,063.11 per ounce, giving back part of the more than 1% gain recorded in the previous session. U.S. gold futures for April delivery followed a similar pattern, slipping 0.3% to $5,083.90 per ounce.

The move coincided with a rise in the U.S. dollar index. A stronger dollar typically weighs on commodities priced in dollars, as it makes them more expensive for holders of other currencies, thereby limiting demand.

Labor Market Details and Revisions

January employment growth in the United States exceeded expectations, while the unemployment rate eased to 4.3%. However, downward revisions to prior data revealed that total job creation for 2025 amounted to 181,000 positions, significantly below the previously estimated 584,000. This suggests that, despite the headline strength, underlying labor market momentum may be softer than initially perceived.

The data has slightly reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Market consensus points to no policy change through May, with a potential rate reduction beginning in June.

Fiscal Outlook and Policy Uncertainty

Adding to the macroeconomic backdrop, the Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. budget deficit to reach $1.853 trillion in fiscal year 2026. In a low-growth environment, widening fiscal imbalances may complicate the broader economic outlook.

Investors are also monitoring potential leadership changes at the Fed, with some assessments suggesting that a new chair could pursue a more accommodative monetary stance.

Silver and Other Precious Metals

Silver mirrored gold’s decline. Spot silver traded around $83.29, posting a daily loss of 1.07% after a nearly 4% surge in the previous session. The pullback underscores ongoing volatility across the precious metals complex.

Platinum fell 0.8% to $2,113.79, while palladium edged up 0.9% to $1,715.30. Markets now await weekly jobless claims and the forthcoming inflation report, both of which are expected to play a decisive role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s next policy steps.

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