Gold prices started Thursday with a limited decline. Spot gold traded at $5,153.79 per ounce, falling about 0.4%. At the same time, U.S. gold futures for April delivery also dropped 0.4% to $5,159.20.

Several factors are driving this move. The most notable is the strengthening U.S. dollar. The dollar index rose around 0.2%, making dollar-denominated assets such as gold and silver more expensive for investors holding other currencies. The market’s familiar reaction followed: as the dollar gained strength, gold stepped back slightly.

Oil prices climb above $100 again

The energy market is telling a very different story. Rising tensions in the Middle East have triggered sharp price movements in oil markets. With Iran increasing attacks across the region, oil prices have climbed back above $100 per barrel.

Tehran has also warned that the world should prepare for a potential $200 per barrel oil scenario. Such statements have created a psychological impact on markets, pushing the geopolitical risk premium higher.

The situation is not limited to rhetoric. According to sources, Iran is believed to have placed roughly a dozen naval mines near the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway is a critical route for global oil and LNG shipments, and tanker traffic there has nearly come to a halt.

Some tankers have reportedly been stranded for more than a week, and storage capacities are approaching their limits. As a result, certain producers have temporarily paused production. In other words, the recent rise in oil prices is not driven solely by geopolitical messaging but also by logistical disruptions.

IEA moves to release reserves

In an effort to limit the shock in energy markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has taken a significant step. The agency approved the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves.

This is considered one of the largest coordinated reserve releases in the oil market in decades. However, analysts suggest it may not be enough to push prices down in a lasting way. The issue now extends beyond supply levels; geopolitical risk and transportation security have become central to market pricing.

Fed rate cut expectations pushed back

Rising energy prices are also reviving inflation concerns. Higher oil costs could increase global price pressures in the months ahead.

Because of this, some financial institutions are reassessing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate timeline. Goldman Sachs has delayed its forecast for Fed rate cuts, citing rising inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict. The bank now expects two quarter-point rate cuts in September and December.

Macroeconomic data has been relatively balanced so far. According to the latest figures, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in February, matching expectations. In January, the monthly increase had been 0.2%.

On a yearly basis, inflation reached 2.4%, again in line with forecasts. However, the renewed rise in energy prices could complicate this balance in the coming months.

Markets await the PCE inflation report

Investors are now focused on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicators. The data is scheduled to be released on Friday.

If the PCE figure comes in stronger than expected, expectations for rate cuts could be pushed further into the future. Such a scenario may continue to create short-term pressure on gold prices.

Silver, platinum and palladium prices

The precious metals market showed mixed movements beyond gold.

• Spot silver: down 0.5% to $85.33

• Spot platinum: down 0.3% to $2,162.24

• Palladium: up 0.3% to $1,642.05

Overall, the market is not moving in a single direction. Energy prices are rising while precious metals are experiencing cautious pullbacks. On one side lies geopolitical risk; on the other, shifting interest-rate expectations. Markets appear to be pricing in two competing narratives at the same time.

In short, the surge in oil prices is indirectly affecting the gold market through inflation expectations and interest-rate outlooks. Over the coming days, developments in energy markets and upcoming U.S. economic data could play a decisive role in shaping the direction of precious metals.

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Spot gold gained 0.2% to $5,202.10 per ounce. April-delivery US gold futures fell 0.6% to $5,211. Oil prices dropped below $90 per barrel. Gold has gained more than 20% this year amid rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, reaching consecutive record levels.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its two-day meeting on March 18 but still anticipate at least two rate cuts this year.

Fluctuations in Silver, Platinum, and Palladium

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $88.24 per ounce. Spot platinum rose 0.1% to $2,202.52, while palladium gained 0.9% to $1,669.82.

Investors are unsettled by uncertainty over the future of the Iran conflict. The dollar has shown volatility. Global markets are pricing in US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end the conflict soon. At the same time, Trump continues to threaten harsh penalties against Iran over attempts to block energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Short-Term Reactions in the Currency Market

• The euro rebounded slightly by 0.18% to $1.163175 from Monday’s three-month low. The pound rose 0.25% to $1.3449.
• The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell to 98.773, near Monday’s three-month high.

Rising Tensions in the Middle East: Investors on Edge

On the 12th day of the war, the US and Israel conducted reciprocal airstrikes against Iranian forces across the Middle East. The besieged Tehran government warned that state security forces are “on alert with fingers ready” if anti-government protests flare up again.

Rapidly developing events are forcing investors to price risk carefully. Another key focus is the February US inflation data to be released on Wednesday. According to a Reuters survey of economists, core consumer prices are expected to rise 0.2% for the month, while overall prices increase by 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the International Energy Agency proposed its largest-ever release of oil reserves. This development contributed to the drop in oil prices.

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Spot gold fell after dropping more than 2% earlier in the session. As of 05:54 GMT+3, the metal was trading at $5,130.94 per ounce, down 0.8% on the day. U.S. gold futures for April delivery slipped 0.4% to $5,138.20.

The U.S. dollar climbed to its highest level in more than three months, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies and limiting demand. At the same time, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds rose to their highest level in about a month, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Stronger Dollar and Rising Yields Pressure Gold

The strengthening dollar has been one of the main drivers behind the latest move in gold prices. When the U.S. currency gains value, commodities priced in dollars tend to become more expensive for international investors, which can reduce buying interest.

At the same time, higher Treasury yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to precious metals. Since gold does not provide yield, rising bond returns often lead investors to rebalance portfolios away from bullion.

Fed Rate Expectations Shift

Market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have also changed in recent days. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, investors widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on March 18.

Interest-rate market pricing shows a notable shift in sentiment. The probability that rates will remain unchanged in June has climbed to above 51%, compared with below 43% just a week earlier.

Because precious metals do not generate income, they generally perform better in low-interest-rate environments. As expectations for near-term rate cuts fade, pressure on gold prices can increase.

Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions

Energy markets moved sharply higher as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. Concerns that the expanding conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran could disrupt global energy supplies pushed crude prices significantly higher.

Fears of prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, have also intensified. Some major Middle Eastern producers have reportedly begun reducing supply amid growing uncertainty.

Oil prices surged roughly 20%, climbing above $110 per barrel during the session. Brent crude futures rose to around $119.50 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reached $119.48.

Analysts at ING noted in a research note that the situation appears to be worsening. According to the bank, production slowdowns have started and several producers are facing storage constraints. Countries such as Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have reportedly begun cutting output.

Iran Leadership Change Adds to Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical tensions intensified further after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new Supreme Leader, succeeding his father Ali Khamenei.

The leadership change is widely seen as a signal that hardline political control will remain in place. Analysts say the move could add to regional uncertainty at a time when global energy markets are already facing supply concerns.

Other Precious Metals See Volatility

Other precious metals also experienced volatility during the session.

Spot silver, after falling more than 5% earlier in the day, stabilized near $84.42 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.1% to $2,133.95, while palladium declined 0.9% to around $1,610.

The broader picture across global commodity markets highlights diverging forces. While oil prices surged due to supply concerns and geopolitical risks, the combination of a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields continued to create short-term pressure on precious metals.

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As geopolitical risks increase in global markets, investors are closely watching gold prices. Movements in gram gold, spot gold and oil prices have become more pronounced amid rising war risks and concerns about potential disruptions in global energy supply.

Middle East Crisis Deepens

The flow of news indicating an expansion of the conflict played a decisive role in financial markets. Developments on Wednesday suggested that tensions are beginning to stretch beyond regional boundaries.

A U.S. submarine reportedly sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing at least 80 people. On the same day, NATO air defense systems reportedly intercepted and destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile fired toward Turkey.

And the geopolitical picture does not end there.

The son of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has emerged as one of the leading figures to potentially succeed him. This development strengthens expectations that Tehran may not easily back down from the confrontation. The military campaign launched by the United States and Israel five days ago has already killed hundreds of people and triggered volatility across global markets.

As a result, investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a prolonged geopolitical crisis rather than a short-lived escalation.

Volatility in Gold Prices May Continue

Market analysts believe two different dynamics are currently influencing gold prices. The first is the classic safe-haven demand that typically emerges during geopolitical crises. The second is the heightened volatility driven by uncertainty surrounding the conflict.

According to analysts, the ongoing crisis could support gold prices over the longer term. However, until there are clear signals that the conflict is de-escalating, price movements are expected to remain sharp and volatile.

Gold has already delivered a remarkable performance since the beginning of the year. Amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, the precious metal has gained about 20% since the start of 2026, repeatedly hitting new record highs.

Oil Prices Also Surge

Energy markets also reacted quickly to geopolitical developments.

Concerns that oil and natural gas supplies in the Middle East could be disrupted pushed energy prices higher. Brent crude rose 3.26% to $83.99 per barrel on Thursday morning, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains.

Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 3.70% to $77.42 per barrel.

The main scenario currently being discussed in energy markets is straightforward: if the conflict expands further, global oil supply chains could come under serious pressure.

A New Fed Chair Candidate

Alongside geopolitical developments, there is also notable news on the monetary policy front.

U.S. President Donald Trump officially nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. central bank.

Warsh is widely viewed by markets as a policymaker who may be more open to interest-rate cuts, a factor that has already sparked renewed debate about the direction of U.S. monetary policy.

However, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 18 meeting.

Investors are now focusing on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data. Weekly jobless claims due later in the day and the February employment report scheduled for Friday are seen as key indicators for the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

How Much Is Gram Gold Now?

Sharp movements in global gold prices have also affected the Turkish market.

Gram gold, which started the week above 8,000 TL in Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar, quickly retreated to around 7,400 TL before partially recovering and stabilizing near 7,500 TL.

Earlier in the week, spot gram gold had tested 7,661 TL. On Tuesday, prices fell sharply and dropped to 7,066 TL. By the third trading day of the week, however, the market began to recover, pushing gram gold back above 7,300 TL.

In short, the main factor determining the direction of gold prices is no longer limited to inflation or interest rates.

Latest Gold and Oil Prices

Current market levels are as follows:

• Spot Gold: $5,177

• Gram Gold: 7,500 TL

• Brent Crude: $83.99

• WTI Crude: $77.42

As global markets continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely, investors are debating whether gold prices could reach new highs if tensions continue to escalate.

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Ilya Spivak, head of global macroeconomics at Tastylive, said, “We saw a significant increase in gold prices yesterday. Now there’s a bit of a digesting phase, and it’s interesting that the panic on Wall Street didn’t spill over into Asian markets.”

Why Is Gold Falling?

The main reasons behind the pullback are profit-taking after recent sharp gains, the US dollar strengthening against major currencies, and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts. Additionally, volatility in the AI sector and concerns over trade tensions have pushed the dollar as a safe haven, putting pressure on spot gold.

Dollar Strengthens Amid Geopolitical Concerns

As the dollar gains value, gold and silver priced in dollars become more expensive for holders of other currencies, creating short-term selling pressure.

US President Donald Trump warned on Monday that following the Supreme Court’s cancellation of emergency tariffs, countries should not step back from trade agreements recently negotiated with the US; otherwise, much higher tariffs could be applied under different trade laws.

Asian markets opened choppy after a new AI-driven sell-off on Wall Street but stabilized following Trump’s geopolitical and trade warnings. Gold is reacting not only to the dollar but also to global uncertainties.

Fed Expectations and Interest Rate Outlook

Federal Reserve Chair Christopher Waller said that if upcoming February employment data shows strength, they could keep rates steady at the March meeting. After weak labor performance in 2025, markets are seeking confirmation that the labor market has “found a firmer footing.”

According to CME FedWatch, the market currently expects three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year. These expectations are creating both downward pressure and potential support for gold. Short-term volatility is noticeable, with micro-movements apparent.

Gram Gold and Precious Metals Movements

Gram gold, impacted by the pullback in spot gold, fell 1.2% to 7,292 TL at mid-session. Other metals moved as follows:

• Spot silver dropped 0.9% to $87.39 per ounce.

• Platinum fell 0.5% to $2,142.35 per ounce.

• Palladium diverged, rising 0.4% to $1,750.98 per ounce.

These movements reflect a combination of short-term profit-taking, dollar strength, and global uncertainty. Gold and silver responded more sharply, while palladium showed a modest rise.

Market Sentiment and the Days Ahead

Gold and other precious metals are expected to remain sensitive to dollar movements and global uncertainties in the short term. Spot gold retreated amid profit-taking and dollar strength; gram gold declined in Turkish lira terms. Spot silver and platinum followed similar patterns, while palladium diverged.

AI-driven trading algorithms and micro price fluctuations are causing brief, sharp reactions, often with deviant sentence structures. The trend’s direction in coming days will depend on the dollar index, Fed decisions, and global geopolitical developments.

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Oil Prices Jump Amid Supply Concerns

Brent crude rose 1.86% to $71.66, while US crude climbed 1.9% to $66.43. Wednesday saw a more than 4% increase—the largest daily surge since October. Markets are cautious, understandably. The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz is key here.

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, commented: “The recent moves in oil prices reflect the market pricing in the geopolitical risk premium from the world’s most critical oil artery being close to a conflict zone.”

Gold Surpasses $5,000: Safe-Haven Demand Surges

Gold reached $5,007.44 per ounce. After a 2% rise on Wednesday, it gained a slight 0.2% on Thursday. Why the surge? Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets amid uncertainty. Volatility and escalating Middle East tensions have boosted demand. Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, says, “Gold is no longer just an investment vehicle; it is trading almost like a gauge of geopolitical concern.”

Strait of Hormuz: The Critical Oil Passage

US and Iranian diplomats met in Geneva, but talks have not eased tensions. US Vice President JD Vance noted that Iranian negotiators ignored some of President Trump’s “red lines.” Daily oil flow through the Strait is about 20 million barrels, representing 20% of global consumption. Iran partially closed the strait for naval exercises, heightening market anxiety. Even minor disruptions could trigger sudden price spikes.

Market Reactions and Inflation Worries

US stock markets closed lower on Thursday: Dow Jones -0.54%, S&P 500 -0.28%, Nasdaq -0.31%. Analysts at Capital Economics warn that potential strikes on Iran could spike oil prices, push global inflation higher, and reduce the pace or number of central bank rate cuts.

Dennis Follmer, Chief Investment Officer at Montis Financial, says: “Maintaining oil flow from the Strait of Hormuz should be a priority for the White House. Diplomacy first; if not possible, a military plan to safeguard supply.”

Past Conflicts and Market Response

In June, clashes between Israel and Iran and US operations on Iran’s nuclear facilities drove oil prices up. Gold and oil served as a geopolitical risk signal. Investors remain cautious toward Iran due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz.

Thursday’s market swings show that tensions remain high. Gold and oil prices rising indicates that safe-haven demand continues. Risks are not gone; investors are cautious.

Iran-US tensions are directly affecting oil and gold markets. Brent crude $71.66, US crude $66.43, gold $5,007.44. Investors are seeking safe-haven assets.

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This pause in the market can be interpreted as investors balancing between low liquidity in Asian markets and upcoming critical U.S. inflation data. Holidays in major players such as China and South Korea have slightly thinned market activity, but the main story remains in the Fed minutes.

Why Gold Is Pulling Back: Fed Minutes and Dollar Pressure

There is no single reason for this gold retracement. Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting show members are cautious about interest rate cuts. Some even indicated that “a rate hike remains on the table if inflation does not decline,” which pushed non-yielding gold slightly aside.

The dollar’s global strength continues to pressure gold prices. Analysts suggest gold could fluctuate in the $4,800–$5,100 range in the short term, with Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report likely decisive for a lasting trend.

February 19 Current Gold and Silver Trends

Gram gold is trading around 7,012 TL, down about 0.1%. Ounce gold is just below the psychological $5,000 mark at $4,968.

Silver prices, following yesterday’s gain of over 5%, are holding steady at $77.18. Technically, the $70–$90 range remains the main trading zone for silver.

Other precious metals saw minor changes: platinum fell to $2,069, while palladium remained stable around $1,715.

Market Analysis: Is It the Right Time to Buy Gold?

This sideways movement can be interpreted as the calm before the storm. Macro pressures dominate over technical weakness. If U.S. employment and inflation data fail to reassure the Fed, a stronger dollar could continue to challenge gold.

The 7,000 TL support for gram gold is critical. However, the market always leaves room for reversal. If Friday’s data falls short of expectations, current bearish sentiment could quickly reverse.

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Gold and Silver Quiet Before NFP

Spot gold continues to hover around the $5,030 range following historic peaks at the end of January. Silver has retraced 2.1%, a technical profit-taking move. Analyst Jigar Trivedi emphasizes that the underlying trend remains positive. Investors are avoiding large positions ahead of the US data. If employment figures fall short, gold could target $5,100. Silver prices are holding above the $81 support. This current pullback in the dollar resembles a calm before the storm.

Eastern Factors Weigh on the Dollar

The dollar’s global weakness is driven not only by domestic data but also by moves from East Asia. The Chinese yuan surpassed 6.91 for the first time since May 2023, gaining over 1% against the dollar. Local banks reducing exposure to US Treasury securities is adding pressure on the greenback. Asset diversification demand is one of the key factors behind the dollar index decline.

In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s victory pushed the yen to 155.24. However, this recovery may not last. Takaichi’s potential use of the $1.4 trillion foreign exchange reserve for tax cuts raises concerns. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that surplus reserves could be used for food tax reductions. Analyst Carol Kong predicts that this fiscal loosening could push the dollar/yen rate to 164 by year-end.

Fed’s Rate Path and Expectations

US government shutdown delays have finally ended, bringing pending reports to the market. Kevin Hassett warns that employment growth could remain at 70,000 due to slower labor force growth and high productivity. This scenario weakens the Fed’s hand. Analysts expect it to strengthen the likelihood of a monetary easing cycle starting in June.

Market participants continue to price in two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in June. This expectation is creating short-term pressure on the dollar while fueling volatility in commodity prices. Other currencies remain stable, with the euro holding at 1.19125. Sterling faces pressure at $1.369 amid political crises. Investors are now focused not just on the data but on how the Fed reacts to it.

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After testing record highs earlier in the week, copper retreated sharply as technical disruptions at the London Metal Exchange (LME) coincided with position shifts by Chinese traders. Three-month copper contracts fell nearly 4% from above $14,500 per ton to around $13,000. Over the same period, gold declined about 4%, while silver dropped 5.9%.

Metal Sell-Off Spills Into Crypto

The correction in traditional markets quickly reverberated across crypto, particularly in tokenized gold, silver, and copper products. Over the past 24 hours, positions tied to these assets across spot and derivatives markets saw close to $120 million in liquidations.

Silver-linked contracts accounted for the largest losses at roughly $32 million, followed by gold- and copper-based futures. Prices of tokenized bullion products such as XAU and XAUT fell by more than 7%.

This episode underscores that crypto markets are no longer just a standalone asset class, but increasingly serve as an alternative venue for macro trading.

Crypto as a New Channel for Macro Trades

As metal prices surged earlier in the week, traders gravitated toward crypto-based contracts, drawn by 24/7 access, leverage, and faster execution. When prices reversed, those same markets became a pressure valve for risk.

Gold’s pullback went beyond a routine technical correction. Spot gold slid to around $5,170 after intraday losses exceeded 5%, coming just one day after prices hit an all-time high of $5,594.82. Futures markets mirrored the move, with U.S. February contracts falling to $5,225, as selling pressure also spread to tokenized metal positions in crypto markets.

The post-record correction was even more pronounced in silver. After breaking above $122 on Thursday, prices retreated to around $112 amid heavy selling. Still, silver continues to stand out with gains of more than 50% on a monthly basis.

Platinum followed a similar pattern, easing toward the $2,530 area after topping $2,900 earlier in the week at a record high.

Altogether, the move reinforced how tightly linked crypto markets have become with traditional finance.

Stronger Dollar Adds Pressure

A stronger U.S. dollar also played a key role in the metals pullback. Speculation that the Trump administration may be preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair boosted the greenback. Dollar strength tends to weigh on dollar-denominated commodities, and Friday’s move pressured metals broadly.

Beyond gold and silver, crude oil and iron ore prices also moved lower in this environment.

Bigger Picture: Metals Still a Leading Theme

Despite the sharp short-term correction, metals remain one of the strongest themes of the year. Copper continues to benefit from supply constraints and electrification-driven demand, keeping weekly momentum intact. Gold, meanwhile, continues to attract investor interest as a hedge against political and fiscal uncertainty.

Bitcoin, however, told a different story. BTC traded relatively independently despite the turbulence in metals, reinforcing the view that it is increasingly behaving as a standalone risk asset rather than a macro proxy.

Crypto markets may no longer be detached from global trends—but they are increasingly acting as a parallel arena where macro forces play out in real time.

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Whales Securing Digital Gold

Market activity actually shows that whales are taking long-term positions rather than short-term trades. For instance, during the last week of January, large wallets withdrew multi-million-dollar amounts of XAUT and PAXG from Bybit and MEXC. On January 27, wallet 0xbe4C pulled nearly $10 million in XAUT; the same day, 0x0F67 withdrew about $2.8 million in XAUT.

Interestingly, wallet 0x1b7D simultaneously withdrew around $1 million worth of both XAUT and PAXG from MEXC. Of course, these aren’t random moves; they appear part of a larger accumulation strategy. On January 28, 0x6Afa spent almost $6 million to acquire PAXG over two days, while newly created wallet 0x0E4F pulled $4 million in XAUT from Bybit.

Negative Exchange Flows Signal Long-Term Holding

Data from Arkham Intelligence shows net negative exchange flows for Tether Gold over the past seven days. This actually indicates consistent withdrawals from centralized exchanges, suggesting long-term accumulation rather than short-term speculation. In other words, investors are positioning for continued upside.

XAUT’s market capitalization also reflects strong momentum. According to CoinGecko, Tether Gold’s total market cap reached around $2.9 billion, hitting an all-time high. This growth closely mirrors rising gold prices and increased demand for tokenized exposure.

Tokenized Gold Bridges Crypto and Safe-Haven Demand

The market trend shows that digital gold is bridging traditional safe-haven demand and crypto-native capital. Amid geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainty, whales increasingly favor tokenized gold as a liquid, blockchain-based safe-haven.

With falling exchange balances and rising market capitalization, XAUT is emerging as a key long-term store of value. Truthfully, the accumulation by crypto whales signals a growing convergence between traditional bullion demand and the new digital frontier.

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