With geopolitical risks rising, S&P 500 losses remaining below 1% have surprised even the major bank.

Solomon noted that market reactions were calmer than expected:

“Looking at market responses… given the magnitude, I expected a stronger reaction.”

How Are Markets Reacting Now?

Energy prices are rising sharply. Expanding conflict has triggered supply concerns, pushing oil prices higher. Investors have shifted from riskier assets to safe havens, strengthening the dollar while global stock indexes saw modest declines. Losses on Wall Street were relatively mild; the S&P 500 recovered early-day losses over two sessions, ending with a drop below 1%.

Solomon emphasized that this calm reflects how geopolitical events usually do not directly affect economic growth. However, cumulative effects may emerge later:

“We haven’t seen the cumulative effect yet. There’s still a lot unknown, so predictions are difficult.”

What Is the US Economy’s Condition?

Solomon stated that strong macroeconomic fundamentals make the US economy resilient. Looser monetary policy and regulatory relief have helped support growth.

According to the CEO, the US economy may “overheat slightly” this year, potentially pushing inflation above expectations. Private credit portfolios remain healthy, but during long credit cycles, slower growth could expose weaker lending standards:

“Competition in capital allocation is putting pressure on lending standards. If a slowdown or recession occurs, weak spots will become more evident.”

Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping White-Collar Work

Goldman Sachs is using AI to automate processes. While headcount remains largely stable, productivity is increasing and employees are being redirected to different roles. Short-term effects are beginning to be felt, but no long-term labor shortage is expected.

The CEO’s remarks are critical for understanding market risk perception and workforce planning in banking. Solomon described AI’s effects as “complex,” noting that short- and medium-term impacts are not yet fully clear.

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Notable Bitcoin Statement from David Solomon

During his speech at the 2026 World Liberty Financial Forum event held at Mar-a-Lago in Florida, Solomon publicly confirmed for the first time that he owns Bitcoin. As the head of one of the world’s largest investment banks, he stressed that his approach to Bitcoin remains cautious.

Solomon stated:

“I’m still trying to understand how Bitcoin behaves. I own a little bit of Bitcoin — very little.”

This disclosure is considered significant because a longtime Wall Street leader who has historically maintained distance from cryptocurrencies has now confirmed a personal investment.

Although Solomon has supported blockchain technology for years, he has been more reserved about cryptocurrencies themselves. He acknowledged that Bitcoin may serve as a store of value for some investors, while also highlighting its high volatility and sharp price swings. He clarified that he does not make definitive predictions about Bitcoin and described himself more as an observer than an active crypto investor. This reflects the broader cautious-but-evolving stance of major financial institutions toward digital assets.

How Goldman Sachs Approaches Crypto

Goldman Sachs has preferred focusing on the technological infrastructure behind digital assets rather than making large-scale direct crypto investments. The bank closely monitors developments in tokenization and stablecoins, preparing for potential transformation within the financial system. Tokenization involves converting real-world assets such as stocks, bonds, or real estate into blockchain-based digital representations. This process could make financial transactions faster, more transparent, and more efficient.

The bank is also actively researching stablecoin projects designed to reduce price volatility and exploring how these assets could integrate into the broader financial infrastructure. While Goldman Sachs recognizes that blockchain technology may play a significant long-term role in finance, it continues to take a cautious approach toward direct crypto exposure. In fact, the bank reportedly reduced its holdings in spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs by around 40% in the last quarter, signaling that it is still limiting large-scale direct exposure. This move highlights Goldman Sachs’ focus on risk management while closely monitoring opportunities in the sector.

Emphasis on Regulatory Clarity

According to Solomon, one of the most critical factors for the crypto market’s growth is clearer regulation. He stated that establishing a stable and transparent legal framework for digital assets in the United States would increase investor confidence and accelerate institutional participation. While he warned that excessive regulation could stifle innovation, he argued that clear rules would ultimately strengthen the market in the long term. Goldman Sachs’ future involvement in crypto is likely to depend significantly on regulatory developments.

David Solomon’s acknowledgment that he personally owns Bitcoin is widely viewed as a sign of the gradual shift in Wall Street’s perception of digital assets. Although caution remains, his recognition of Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value suggests that attitudes within traditional finance are evolving. If regulatory clarity increases, larger financial institutions may become more actively engaged in the digital asset space.

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WLFI, in which U.S. President Donald Trump’s family reportedly holds approximately a 38% stake, announced new partnerships at the event and detailed its stablecoin-centered growth vision. With around 300 invited guests in attendance, the organization demonstrated that digital assets are no longer solely the domain of technology startups but have become a core component of the global financial architecture.

Many prominent figures, diplomats, billionaire investors, and celebrity CEOs, including Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Nicki Minaj, Gianni Infantino, and Plume Network CEO Chris Yin, were all under one roof. We even had the opportunity to meet Plume CEO Chris Yin and ask her a question about the project that we were curious about.

The event was held at full capacity and took place in a positive atmosphere. Participants celebrated the evening with fireworks and high-energy sessions. Nicki Minaj’s speech went viral on social media, with fans sharing photos and videos from the event.

USD1 and Apex Group Partnership

The most significant announcement of the forum was WLFI’s strategic partnership with Apex Group for its dollar-backed stablecoin, USD1. Peter Hughes, CEO of Apex, which services $3.5 trillion in assets, emphasized that stablecoins can be actively utilized on institutional balance sheets. He underlined that the proof-of-reserve mechanism is particularly critical in terms of institutional trust.

WLFI executives described USD1 as “a faster dollar for the digital age.” The stablecoin is reportedly backed by U.S. Treasury securities and cash reserves, with its revenue model based on the interest income generated from those assets.

Trump-Branded Hotel Project to Be Tokenized

WLFI Forum: Wall Street and the Regulatory Front Also Participated!

TradFi and DeFi Bridge

The integration between traditional financial institutions and decentralized finance was widely discussed. Participants argued that crypto would replace legacy systems with transparent and open infrastructures. To prevent exclusion from banking systems due to political decisions, WLFI highlighted solutions such as governance frameworks, stablecoins, lending mechanisms, and AI-based payment systems.

Senior representatives from both the financial sector and public authorities took the stage at the forum:

Adena Friedman – CEO of Nasdaq

She stated that blockchain technology could transform market infrastructure and drew attention to the digitalization of capital markets.

Lynn Martin – President of the New York Stock Exchange

She emphasized that reliable trading infrastructure is critical for digital asset markets.

Brian Armstrong – CEO of Coinbase

He stated that a digital dollar could play a central role in global payment and settlement systems.

David Solomon – CEO of Goldman Sachs

He pointed to increasing institutional demand for digital assets and noted that major financial institutions cannot afford to ignore the space.

Jenny Johnson – CEO of Franklin Templeton

She stated that stablecoins could become part of the global financial infrastructure.

Changpeng Zhao (CZ) – Founder of Binance

CZ, the founder of the world’s largest crypto exchange, was also present at the event. The fact that a significant portion of USD1’s supply is reportedly held by Binance highlights the strategic relationship between WLFI and Binance.

Michael Selig – CFTC Commissioner

He described the crypto market as being at a “turning point” from a regulatory perspective and emphasized the need for a clear federal framework.

Senators Bernie Moreno and Ashley Moody

They argued that dollar-backed stablecoins could strengthen the global dominance of the U.S. dollar.

Featured Sessions at the WLFI Forum

The forum agenda included the following key topics:

• “Strengthening the Dollar in the Digital World”
• “Market Structure for the Digital Age”
• “The Stablecoin Moment: From Financial Primitive to Global Infrastructure”
• “Architects of the Digital Dollar Era”
• “Rebuilding Financial Infrastructure: New Rails for Payments and Capital”

Additionally, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. made statements arguing that decentralized finance can serve as an alternative to traditional banking.

WLFI: Political and Strategic Dimension

Calls to pass the CLARITY Act through Congress were reiterated during the event. While the Republican side argued for swift regulatory clarity, Democratic representatives called for greater transparency regarding the company’s relationships with foreign investors.

Overall, the broader picture suggests that the digital dollar vision is being positioned not only as a technological development but also as a geopolitical strategy. With its stablecoin-focused growth strategy, WLFI has positioned itself at the center of both financial and political agendas.

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Details of Goldman Sachs’s Crypto Portfolio

As of December 31, 2025, Goldman Sachs’s crypto allocation was as follows:

• $1.1 billion in Bitcoin (via spot ETFs)
• $1 billion in Ethereum (via spot ETFs)
• $153 million in XRP ETFs
• $108 million in Solana ETFs

This filing confirmed for the first time that Goldman Sachs holds positions in XRP and Solana ETFs, signaling that the bank is diversifying beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Related: Saylor Talks About Bitcoin Purchases! Will Strategy Sell?

Although total crypto holdings increased, the bank reduced its spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF positions in Q4:

• Spot Bitcoin ETF shares down 39.4%
• Spot Ethereum ETF shares down 27.2%

At the end of 2025, Goldman Sachs held approximately 21.2 million shares across various spot Bitcoin ETFs, valued around $1.06 billion. For Ethereum ETFs, the bank held roughly 40.7 million shares, totaling about $1 billion.

Market Decline and ETF Outflows Played a Role

This rebalancing coincided with a broad market correction in crypto. Bitcoin fell to around $59,900 in 2026, while Ethereum dropped to approximately $1,870, reflecting broader market risk-off sentiment.

During this period, significant capital outflows occurred from spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which are popular among institutional investors: about $1.15 billion exited Bitcoin ETFs and $1.46 billion exited Ethereum ETFs. This context suggests that Goldman Sachs’s reduction of BTC and ETH ETF positions was a risk management response aligned with market conditions, price pressure, and fund flows, rather than a standalone strategy shift.

Evaluation

Goldman Sachs’s $1.1 billion Bitcoin and $1 billion Ethereum holdings, along with new positions in XRP and Solana ETFs, demonstrate that institutional interest in crypto remains strong. While the bank reduced BTC and ETH ETF positions in Q4, the new altcoin positions indicate a diversification approach within its crypto strategy. Although the proportion of institutional capital allocated to crypto remains limited (0.33%), such disclosures are critical for market perception and long-term adoption.

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Why Are Systematic Funds Turning into Sellers?

Goldman Sachs’ trading desk highlights that trend-following funds, commonly referred to as Commodity Trading Advisers (CTAs), have already generated sell signals in the S&P 500. Even in scenarios where markets attempt a short-term stabilization, these strategies are expected to remain net sellers.

The bank estimates that if market weakness deepens, roughly $33 billion in equities could be sold within a single week. More importantly, should key technical levels be breached over the coming month, total systematic selling could climb to as much as $80 billion. This scale of potential outflows underscores the sensitivity of current market conditions.

Liquidity Concerns and Rising Volatility

Another critical issue flagged by analysts is deteriorating market liquidity. Shifts in options positioning, particularly the rise in “short gamma” exposure, can amplify price swings. In such environments, dealers are often forced to sell into declining markets and buy into rising ones, which tends to accelerate intraday movements and heighten overall volatility.

Beyond CTAs, other systematic approaches—such as risk-parity and volatility-control strategies—still have room to reduce exposure if market turbulence intensifies. This suggests that selling pressure could broaden, rather than remain confined to a single group of funds.

Implications for Bitcoin and Precious Metals

Although the primary focus of Goldman Sachs’ analysis is equities, history shows that liquidity-driven sell-offs often spill over into other asset classes. Bitcoin, in particular, has shown an increased correlation with broader risk sentiment during periods of market stress. As a result, forced deleveraging in equities could translate into heightened volatility across crypto markets.

The outlook for gold and silver is more nuanced. While periods of uncertainty can boost safe-haven demand, tighter liquidity and a stronger dollar may simultaneously weigh on precious metals. This dynamic can lead to sharp moves in either direction, depending on how macro conditions evolve.

Critical for Bitcoin, Gold, and US Stock Markets!

Overall, the combination of systematic deleveraging, rising volatility, and weakening investor confidence points to a fragile market environment. If the projected selling materializes, the coming weeks could serve as a significant stress test not only for U.S. equities, but also for Bitcoin and precious metals.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Goldman Sachs: Prices Are Weak, Fundamentals Are Strong

According to Goldman Sachs, although the overall price outlook in the crypto market remains weak, on-chain data presents a much more positive picture for Ethereum. The bank highlighted a clear divergence between price action and user-behavior indicators, noting that fundamental activity on the Ethereum network is gaining momentum. In this regard, Goldman Sachs stated that in January, the average daily number of new addresses on the Ethereum network far surpassed levels seen during the “DeFi Summer” of 2020, a period widely regarded as a major turning point for the crypto market. This data shows that the number of new users joining the Ethereum ecosystem has reached historically strong levels, indicating that network usage and user interest continue to grow despite weak prices.

Following recent declines in major crypto assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana earlier in the week, a limited recovery was observed. However, Goldman Sachs stresses that on-chain activity should be the primary focus. According to the bank’s data, Ethereum’s daily active addresses increased by 27.5% month-over-month, while the number of new addresses rose by 26.8%. Over the same period, transaction count recorded a notable 36% increase. A similar trend is seen on Solana: daily active addresses increased by 24.3%, while transaction volume rose by 8.2%. These figures demonstrate that user activity across major networks is being sustained despite ongoing price pressure.

Record Address Growth on Ethereum and Market Cap Insight

Goldman Sachs reported that the average daily number of new Ethereum addresses reached a record level of 427,000 in January. This figure is significantly higher than the roughly 162,000 daily average seen during the DeFi Summer of 2020. In addition, daily active addresses climbed to around 1.2 million based on the 7-day moving average, marking a new peak. The bank also noted that Ethereum’s current market capitalization has fallen below its realized market capitalization, indicating that a substantial portion of ETH holders are currently at a loss at these price levels.

ETF Flows and Expert Commentary

Timothy Misir, research director at digital asset analytics firm BRN, emphasized that ETF inflows play a decisive role in achieving a sustainable recovery in the crypto market. According to Misir, consistent and steady institutional capital inflows are critical for building confidence, regardless of short-term price movements. He commented:

“Consistent ETF inflows are a key indicator for cryptocurrencies. Without this support, it is difficult for a rally to be sustainable.”

According to Goldman Sachs’ analysis, despite short-term price pressure, Ethereum continues to preserve its long-term potential thanks to strong network activity, increasing user adoption, and rising transaction volume. On-chain data suggests a growing divergence between market sentiment and fundamental indicators, indicating that Ethereum may remain firmly on the radar of institutional investors.

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Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon recently addressed the issue during a quarterly earnings call, emphasizing that the legislation is still far from being finalized. His remarks underline a broader reality: while momentum exists, consensus around digital asset regulation has yet to fully materialize in Washington.

Why the CLARITY Act Matters to Financial Institutions

According to Solomon, multiple teams within Goldman Sachs are actively monitoring regulatory developments related to digital assets. The primary reason is the CLARITY Act’s potential impact on tokenization and stablecoins, two areas increasingly seen as bridges between traditional finance and blockchain-based systems.

Tokenized financial instruments could introduce efficiencies in settlement and ownership transfer, while clearer rules around stablecoins may enable banks to explore new payment and liquidity solutions. For large institutions, regulatory clarity is a prerequisite for deploying capital and developing scalable products in these areas.

Legislative Delays Signal Ongoing Disagreements

The postponement of a scheduled markup session in the US Senate Banking Committee highlights the complexity of the legislative process. A key factor behind the delay was the withdrawal of support from a major crypto exchange, signaling unresolved concerns within the industry itself.

This setback suggests that lawmakers are still grappling with competing interests and interpretations of how digital assets should be regulated. Without alignment among stakeholders, advancing the bill to a full vote becomes increasingly challenging.

Regulatory Uncertainty and Industry Lobbying

The CLARITY Act has attracted significant lobbying efforts from banks, crypto platforms, and decentralized finance firms. One of the most contentious topics is how the US Securities and Exchange Commission would oversee tokenized equities and stablecoin-related incentives.

Some banking groups have advocated for restrictions on interest-bearing or yield-generating stablecoins. While recent drafts appear to stop short of an outright ban, they indicate a willingness to impose limitations on passive returns, reflecting a cautious regulatory stance.

Broader Strategic Interest Beyond Crypto

Solomon also pointed to Goldman Sachs’ interest in adjacent digital markets, including prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. This signals that large financial institutions are evaluating a wide range of blockchain-enabled financial models, not just cryptocurrencies themselves.

A Timeline That Remains Unclear

With US lawmakers facing pressing budget and funding deadlines, digital asset legislation may not be an immediate priority. If Congress fails to resolve fiscal issues in the near term, consideration of the CLARITY Act could be pushed back further.

Taken together, these developments indicate that while regulatory progress is underway, the US digital asset framework is still evolving. The CLARITY Act may ultimately play a pivotal role, but its approval appears more likely to be a matter of months rather than weeks.

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Key Drivers Behind the Upward Forecast

Goldman Sachs attributes its revised estimate to two dominant forces shaping the market: sustained inflows into Western gold-backed exchange-traded funds and persistent gold accumulation by central banks.
Analysts suggest that a shift toward monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve could further stimulate ETF demand, exerting additional upward pressure on prices.

The bank emphasizes that structural demand is playing an increasingly important role in the long-term pricing outlook. Many central banks have been expanding their gold reserves as part of their broader diversification strategies, contributing to a steadily tightening supply-demand dynamic.

“Risks Remain Tilted to the Upside”

Despite the already optimistic target, Goldman Sachs notes that the balance of risks still leans toward further price appreciation. According to the bank’s analysts, greater diversification by private-sector investors could cause ETF holdings to exceed model-based projections. Should this materialize, gold prices may surpass even the newly updated forecast.

Two Distinct Buyer Groups: Believers and Opportunists

The bank’s research highlights that gold demand primarily arises from two types of buyers. The first group—often referred to as “belief-driven buyers”—includes central banks, ETFs, and speculative investors who continue to accumulate gold regardless of short-term price movements. Historically, every 100 tons of net purchases by this group correlates with an estimated 1.7% increase in gold prices.

The second group comprises opportunistic buyers, including households in emerging markets, who enter the market only when they perceive prices to be attractive. These buyers tend to support the market during price declines and act as a moderating force during rapid increases.

Goldman Sachs’ updated projection underscores the growing appeal of gold as a strategic asset in a shifting macroeconomic environment. With resilient central bank demand and strengthening ETF inflows, the precious metal appears poised to remain a focal point for investors in the years ahead.

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What Is Arc Blockchain?

Arc is designed to serve as a foundational layer for modern financial infrastructure, integrating seamlessly with Circle’s stablecoin and payment systems. According to Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, the institutions participating in Arc “collectively reach billions of users, move and safeguard hundreds of trillions in assets and payments, and support economies across every continent.”

Built for efficiency and transparency, Arc promises features such as sub-second transaction finality, U.S. dollar-based fee structures, and optional privacy controls. The network aims to power applications ranging from tokenized funds and cross-border payments to real-time foreign exchange (FX) settlement.

Leading Financial and Tech Firms on Board

The Arc testnet has attracted a diverse set of global participants. Traditional finance powerhouses like State Street, Deutsche Bank, Invesco, and Société Générale are testing blockchain use cases alongside digital asset platforms such as Coinbase, Kraken, Aave, and Curve. Fintech firms Nuvei and Brex are evaluating Arc’s potential in merchant payments, while technology providers including AWS, Mastercard, and Cloudflare are exploring its infrastructure capabilities.

Visa is testing Arc to assess how stablecoin-backed payment infrastructure could accelerate cross-border money transfers. Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, said the firm is exploring Arc’s potential to unlock new efficiencies in stablecoin settlement and on-chain FX operations. Meanwhile, Invesco and Société Générale are focusing on tokenized fund management and programmable settlements, respectively. HSBC is examining how Arc could improve the transparency and speed of international payments.

The Expanding Role of Stablecoins and Tokenized Assets

The initiative comes as the global financial industry accelerates its adoption of blockchain-based assets. According to Citi, the stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion by 2030, while Boston Consulting Group and Ripple project that tokenized real-world assets (RWA) could approach $19 trillion by 2033.

Circle’s Arc network is positioned to become a key infrastructure layer in this transformation — enabling financial institutions to transact, settle, and tokenize assets with greater efficiency and transparency.

Circle Vision: A Decentralized Arc Ecosystem

Circle’s long-term plan is for Arc to evolve into a fully decentralized, community-governed network. While the company is currently leading the testnet and early development, it aims to open validator participation and establish public governance frameworks in the future.

If successful, Arc could serve as a pivotal bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), redefining how global capital flows through both on-chain and off-chain ecosystems.

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Solomon: A 25 Basis Point Cut Is More Realistic

In an interview with CNBC, Solomon stated: “I don’t think a 50 basis point cut is on the table.”

Market data aligns with his cautious stance. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, only 7.8% of traders anticipate a half-point cut at the September 17 meeting. Instead, a dominant 92.2% expect a smaller 25 bps reduction. Solomon himself emphasized that this measured step is the more probable outcome.

Signs of a Softening Labor Market

Beyond rate speculation, Solomon highlighted emerging weakness in the U.S. labor market:
“There’s no question that we’re seeing some softening in employment trends,” he said.

He added that depending on how economic conditions unfold, one or even two more rate cuts could still occur before the end of the year.

Implications for the Crypto Market

Lower interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of safer assets like bonds, often pushing investors toward higher-risk, higher-reward markets such as cryptocurrencies.

Crypto trader Mister Crypto suggested on X that a 50 bps cut would trigger explosive growth: “If that happens, crypto will smash through previous all-time highs.”

However, blockchain analytics firm Santiment issued a cautionary note. The surge in social media hype around a September cut, the platform warned, may indicate investor euphoria is overheating—often a signal of a potential local top.

Shifting Bank Forecasts

Standard Chartered recently revised its outlook, pointing to August’s weaker-than-expected jobs data as justification for seeing a 50 bps cut within the realm of possibility.

Meanwhile, Bank of America, which previously ruled out any cuts in 2025, has reversed course. The bank now projects two separate 25 bps reductions—one in September and another in December.

These adjustments followed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 22, where he hinted at a possible rate cut in the near term.

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