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Mt.Gox sent a significant portion of the 32,000 BTC to the address “1FG2C…Rveoy.” Additionally, 2,000 BTC was transferred to another address. These transfers typically consolidate holdings into new addresses. Mt.Gox‘s repayments create selling pressure in the bitcoin market. Early investors are more likely to sell as they will receive assets at a higher value.

Mt.Gox was once the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world. In a cyber attack in 2014, it lost 740,000 bitcoins, marking the largest hack in history. The management developed a repayment plan that has been in progress for several years. A Tokyo court extended the repayment deadline from 2024 to 2025. These developments increase uncertainty in the markets.

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Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin recently highlighted a largely overlooked potential catalyst in the crypto market. This catalyst involves crypto enthusiasts receiving $14 billion in fiat currency and potentially re-investing it back into crypto.

It’s been nearly two years since the collapse of FTX, and the landscape has changed significantly since then. The primary development is the bankrupt company’s plan to repay 118% of all creditor claims in fiat, a staggering amount of $14.5 billion. This money, according to the analyst, will go to individuals who were already invested in crypto.

While some FTX creditors may choose to hold onto their fiat, Puckrin believes a significant portion will want to reinvest that money back into the markets. This could be particularly beneficial right now as it could help counteract the Mt Gox payments.

When combined with the Gemini crypto payouts, the total crypto sent to creditors reaches $10.6 billion. However, when FTX fiat payouts are included, there will have been a net $3.9 billion cash surplus paid out.

K33 examined the net liquidity impact of various scenarios, including three scenarios where Mt. Gox/Gemini sells and two scenarios where FTX creditors buy. The results range from a net negative of $2.3 billion to a positive of $1.19 billion.

Puckrin suggests that these estimates could be very conservative. He envisions a scenario where at least 50% of the FTX fiat war chest goes back into BTC. This would result in at least $1.9 billion in net positive liquidity even if Gox/Gemini buyers sell off 50% of their holdings. In the best-case scenario, this could lead to over $4 billion in net buying.

However, Puckrin also points out that timing is crucial. With Gemini targeting June and Mt. Gox’s final payment date in October, FTX creditors are gearing up for late Q4 payments. Therefore, it may take some time for the net liquidity to be affected by the buying of FTX creditor investors.

Despite this, Puckrin remains optimistic, stating, “It’s nice to see that there might be some forces counteracting the selling pressure.”

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