Is the Bitcoin Cycle Still Alive?

While many analysts argue that growing institutional participation could end the classic halving cycle, Glassnode takes a different stance. According to the firm, Bitcoin’s current trajectory continues to show strong similarities to historical cycles.

Glassnode highlights that the latest 55-day period resembles earlier “euphoric phases,” which may indicate that the market is already in the later stages of its current cycle.

Weakening Demand and ETF Outflows

The report also points to signs of fading demand. Spot Bitcoin ETF products have recorded nearly $975 million in outflows over the past four trading sessions.

After hitting a fresh high of $124,128 on August 14, Bitcoin corrected by 8.3%, trading around $113,940. As demand cools, traders appear to be shifting toward riskier altcoin positions. Open interest briefly hit a record $60 billion before correcting by $2.5 billion.

Could the Next Peak Come in October?

If Bitcoin continues to follow its historical path, Glassnode believes a new market peak could arrive as early as October. In previous cycles, particularly in 2018 and 2022, cycle tops occurred just 2–3 months after cycle lows.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also noted in July that if the current cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market could reach its peak in October — roughly 550 days after the April 2024 halving.

Contrasting Views: Is the Cycle Over?

Not everyone agrees with Glassnode’s perspective. Some argue that large-scale BTC accumulation by public companies and strong ETF demand could disrupt the traditional 4-year rhythm.

Investor Jason Williams pointed out that the top 100 corporate treasuries now hold nearly 1 million Bitcoin, suggesting this cycle may unfold differently. Similarly, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan declared that the “Bitcoin cycle is dead,” predicting the next major rally might not arrive until 2026.

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