According to PlanB, considering Bitcoin’s supply structure and past market cycles, much higher price levels appear theoretically possible in this cycle. This assessment is based on economic models relying on Bitcoin’s limited supply.

What Does the Stock-to-Flow Model Say?

At the core of PlanB’s analysis lies the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model attempts to measure scarcity by comparing an asset’s existing stock with the rate of new production. For assets with limited supply like Bitcoin, this approach provides a framework for understanding potential value increases.

The “halving” event that occurs approximately every four years in the Bitcoin network halves the block reward miners receive. This mechanism reduces the amount of newly produced Bitcoin while also restricting the new supply entering the market. If demand remains the same or increases, this scarcity can create upward pressure on the price.

According to PlanB’s calculations, in the current cycle Bitcoin’s price could trade in a range between $250,000 and $1 million. The analyst suggests that the average value of this range could be around $500,000. However, he particularly emphasizes that this forecast does not represent a specific peak price, but rather the average levels that could form throughout the cycle.

There Are Also More Cautious Forecasts

That said, not all analysts share such high price predictions. While some market experts acknowledge significant upside potential for Bitcoin, they set more measured targets.

Crypto analyst Bobby A believes Bitcoin could experience a strong rise in the current market cycle, but more realistic targets would likely fall in the $200,000 to $250,000 range. According to him, these levels could be seen as the market cycle matures in 2026 or 2027.

Bobby A also argues that models like Stock-to-Flow should be evaluated more as theoretical tools that help understand long-term trends rather than tools that produce precise price predictions.

Short-Term Outlook for Bitcoin

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price continues to follow a volatile path. Recently approaching the $74,000 level, the price then experienced some pullback. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,300. Although a slight decline was observed in the last 24 hours, a limited increase stands out on a weekly basis.

Various factors lie behind this volatility in the market. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and changes in investment flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs are among the main elements influencing price movements.

Nevertheless, many analysts believe that after the strong rally that pushed Bitcoin above $72,000 earlier in the year, the market is currently in more of a consolidation phase. This period is regarded as a time when the market is trying to balance itself before determining a new direction.

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The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle and Historical Volatility

Back emphasizes that volatility has always been embedded in Bitcoin’s market structure. Previous four-year cycles have featured similar periods of price weakness at comparable stages. In his view, the roughly 26% decline over the past year reflects a cyclical correction, not a structural failure.

He suggests that some market participants may be positioning based on these well-known historical rhythms rather than reacting strictly to macroeconomic headlines. Expectations for a potential rebound later in the year, he notes, are partly shaped by these recurring patterns.

Institutional Milestones, But No Decoupling

A more crypto-friendly policy backdrop in the United States and long-awaited clarity around spot Bitcoin ETFs were widely expected to usher in a new phase of institutional participation. Many investors believed these developments would dampen volatility and help Bitcoin decouple from broader macro uncertainty.

In practice, however, Bitcoin has at times traded in line with risk assets. During the same period, gold reached fresh highs and silver climbed to multi-year peaks, attracting capital seeking protection against inflation and geopolitical tension. Rather than immediately assuming the role of a dominant hedge, Bitcoin has continued to display sensitivity to broader market sentiment.

ETF Holders vs. Retail Traders

Back also points to structural differences among investor types. ETF holders, he argues, tend to be more “sticky” compared to retail traders active on crypto exchanges. Retail participants often deploy substantial capital during rallies, leaving limited liquidity to accumulate during downturns. Institutional investors, by contrast, can rebalance portfolios more systematically.

Even so, Back believes institutional capital remains in its early stages of engagement. In his assessment, the largest pools of capital have not yet fully entered the space, despite improved regulatory conditions.

Measuring Bitcoin Against Gold

When evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term potential, Back uses gold’s total market capitalization as a reference point. He notes that Bitcoin remains approximately 10 to 15 times smaller than gold, implying significant room for expansion if it continues to gain share as a store of value.

According to Back, rapid adoption inherently brings volatility. As participation broadens across institutions, corporations, and potentially sovereign entities, price swings may moderate. However, he does not expect volatility to disappear entirely. In his view, it is not a contradiction of Bitcoin’s thesis but a natural feature of an asset still progressing along its adoption curve.

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A Steep Drop From the Peak — But Historically Familiar

Bitcoin retreated from its cycle high near $126,000 into the $60,000–$70,000 range, representing a drawdown of approximately 52%. While such a decline can appear alarming in isolation, historical data shows that similar corrections have occurred after every major halving-driven peak.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin has repeatedly experienced post-peak declines ranging from 50% to as much as 80%. From this perspective, the current correction fits well within historical norms rather than signaling an abnormal structural shift.

The April 2024 halving also aligns closely with past timelines. In earlier cycles, Bitcoin typically reached its cycle top roughly 12 to 18 months after halving events. Those peaks were then followed by prolonged corrective phases, often lasting close to a year, before a new accumulation period began.

The “This Time Is Different” Narrative Returns

As in every cycle, debates have resurfaced around whether the four-year model still applies. Some market participants argue that global liquidity conditions now exert a greater influence on Bitcoin’s price than halving mechanics. Others suggest the market may be transitioning toward a longer, five-year cycle.

Despite these arguments, recent developments indicate that structural evolution has not eliminated cyclical behavior. The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, increased regulatory clarity, and a more mature DeFi ecosystem have not prevented a post-peak correction from unfolding.

ETFs Amplify Volatility in Both Directions

During the latest sell-off, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $2.1 billion in net outflows. This highlighted a key reality of institutional access: increased liquidity accelerates price movements on both the upside and the downside.

While DeFi infrastructure has proven more resilient than during the 2022 downturn, declines in total value locked (TVL) and slower staking inflows demonstrate that no segment of the market is immune to broader bear-market conditions.

Where Is the Bottom?

Bitcoin’s intraday rebound from $60,000 toward $70,000 suggests that early support may be forming. However, historical bear markets typically last between six and twelve months and often include multiple failed recovery attempts before a durable bottom is established.

Current indicators reflect significant deleveraging. Stablecoin dominance sits at 10.3%, funding rates are hovering near neutral, and futures open interest has fallen by roughly 55%. Within the four-year cycle framework, Bitcoin now appears to be near the early stages of the corrective phase.

The core question is not whether the cycle still exists, but whether market participants are willing to accept that Bitcoin may once again be following a familiar historical path.

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Why the Four-Year Cycle Is Losing Influence

Under the classic cycle model, early 2026 would typically align with a late-cycle or post-peak phase for Bitcoin. Current price action, however, tells a different story. While global equity markets posted strong gains throughout 2025, Bitcoin underperformed, highlighting a shift in investor focus. Rather than tracking broad risk appetite, market participants are increasingly positioning based on when and how liquidity conditions might ease.

This change implies that the timing of policy decisions is now outweighing historical cycle patterns.

Liquidity Expectations and Indirect Expansion

A key factor shaping Bitcoin’s behavior is the growing expectation of liquidity support delivered outside traditional central bank asset purchases. Governments and policymakers are increasingly using fiscal measures and administrative tools to suppress borrowing costs and stabilize financial conditions. Although these actions fall short of formal quantitative easing, they still inject liquidity into the system.

Bitcoin has shown a tendency to react early to such expectations. Its sensitivity to liquidity conditions positions it as a forward-looking asset, often adjusting before policy effects are fully reflected in traditional markets.

Fiscal Dominance and Financial Repression

Rising public spending, ongoing trade interventions, and persistent debates around interest rates have blurred the boundaries between fiscal, monetary, and trade policy—particularly in the United States. Elevated debt levels are limiting the scope for conventional monetary tightening, while low real yields are diminishing the appeal of government bonds and bank-based credit.

As a result, investors are increasingly evaluating alternative financial assets. In this environment, digital assets benefit from a structural backdrop shaped by fiscal dominance and financial repression.

Regulation May Define Bitcoin’s 2026 Trajectory

Looking ahead, regulatory developments are likely to play a decisive role in Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Progress on crypto market-structure legislation could exert a stronger influence on prices than on-chain indicators. For institutional investors in particular, regulatory clarity remains a critical factor in long-term allocation decisions.

Although ETF-driven institutional demand continues to provide structural support, the scale and durability of that demand will depend heavily on policy direction. The next twelve months may determine whether Bitcoin enters a new equilibrium shaped less by historical cycles and more by policy-driven liquidity conditions.

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The Threshold Bitcoin Must Reclaim

For Bitcoin to end 2025 with a positive annual performance, the price must climb above its opening level of approximately $93,374. Achieving this would require a short-term gain of around 6.24%. Failure to reach that threshold would result in Bitcoin closing the year with a red annual candle—something that has never occurred in the post-halving period.

Market observers emphasize that the window for such a rebound is narrowing rapidly. With only a handful of days remaining in the year, the probability of a decisive move higher is diminishing, raising the likelihood that 2025 could become the first negative post-halving year on record.

Sharp Pullback From Record Highs

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high in October, surging above $125,000. However, the rally was short-lived. A severe market-wide sell-off followed just days later, triggering heavy liquidation across the crypto sector. As a result, Bitcoin retraced nearly 30% from its peak, finding a local bottom near $80,000 in November.

This abrupt reversal reignited debate over whether the long-standing bull market has ended or if the move represents a deeper correction within a broader uptrend.

Bitcoin Technical Structure Shows Signs of Weakness

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been trading below its 365-day moving average since November. This level had previously acted as a key support throughout the structural uptrend that began in 2023. Sustained trading below this indicator is widely interpreted as a sign of weakening momentum and declining trend strength.

Interest Rate Uncertainty Adds Pressure

Macroeconomic factors are also influencing market sentiment. The US Federal Reserve implemented three 25-basis-point rate cuts throughout 2025. However, guidance following the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting failed to provide clarity on the path forward.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted that there is “no risk-free path” for monetary policy, leaving markets uncertain about near-term decisions. According to CME FedWatch data, only 18.8% of participants currently expect an additional rate cut at the January meeting.

Outlook

With technical indicators softening and macro uncertainty persisting, Bitcoin’s year-end performance remains highly uncertain. Whether BTC can avoid making history with its first negative post-halving annual close will depend on whether buyers can regain control in the final days of 2025.

This content is not investment advice.

What is Bitcoin Halving?

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From Bitcoin Halving to Politics and Liquidity

Thielen challenges the idea that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has “broken down.” In his view, the cycle itself has not disappeared; rather, the variables influencing it have shifted. While supply shocks from halvings once played a central role, today’s market dynamics are increasingly dictated by U.S. elections, central bank policies, and capital flows into risk assets.

Looking at historical data, Thielen points out that major Bitcoin market peaks occurred in the fourth quarter of 2013, 2017, and 2021. These peaks, he argues, align more closely with presidential election cycles and periods of heightened political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have taken place at different points in the calendar over the years.

Elections and Market Psychology for Bitcoin

Election years tend to amplify uncertainty across financial markets. Concerns about potential shifts in political power, changes in fiscal priorities, and stalled policy agendas often weigh on investor sentiment. According to Thielen, this uncertainty directly influences risk appetite and capital allocation decisions.

Bitcoin, as an alternative and globally traded asset, can react differently during such periods. Rather than following a strictly supply-driven narrative, its price behavior increasingly reflects broader macro and political stress factors.

Why Rate Cuts Failed to Spark a Rally

Another key element of Thielen’s analysis is Bitcoin’s muted response to the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut. Historically, looser monetary policy has supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This time, however, the expected momentum failed to materialize.

The reason, Thielen suggests, lies in the changing composition of the crypto market. Institutional investors now play a dominant role and tend to be more cautious when policy signals are mixed and liquidity conditions remain tight. Additionally, capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared to previous years, limiting upside pressure. Without a clear expansion in global liquidity, Thielen expects Bitcoin to remain in a consolidation phase rather than enter a new explosive rally.

A Broader Debate on Cycles

Not all market participants agree that the four-year cycle still matters. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has argued that crypto cycles were never truly tied to fixed timelines, but rather to global liquidity trends. In his view, past bull markets ended when monetary conditions tightened, not because of halving events.

Despite differing perspectives, both views converge on a key point: understanding Bitcoin’s future now requires looking beyond block rewards and focusing more closely on macroeconomic forces, political developments, and liquidity conditions shaping global markets.

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The End of the Traditional Four-Year Cycle?

For years, Bitcoin’s price movements have been closely associated with its halving events, forming a predictable four-year rhythm. However, CZ believes that this framework may no longer accurately reflect today’s market dynamics. He emphasized that crypto is no longer driven solely by supply shocks and retail speculation. Instead, global politics, monetary policy decisions, and institutional behavior are now playing a dominant role. These evolving factors could support a longer and structurally different expansion phase.

U.S. Politics, Federal Reserve Policy, and Institutional Demand

CZ attributes the potential supercycle to three major forces: regulatory and political developments in the United States, a possible shift toward monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, and the accelerating involvement of institutional investors. If interest rates decline and liquidity conditions improve, risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—could experience stronger capital inflows. At the same time, growing participation from large financial institutions may bring deeper liquidity and reinforce long-term market stability.

Bitcoin’s Immediate Market Response

Following CZ’s remarks at the conference, the market reacted swiftly. Bitcoin experienced strong buying pressure in a short time frame, climbing toward the 94,000-dollar range. This surge reflected a clear shift in investor sentiment, with renewed optimism spreading rapidly across the market. The price action demonstrated how influential high-profile statements can be in shaping short-term momentum and broader psychological trends within the crypto ecosystem.

What Should Investors Take from This Outlook?

The supercycle narrative highlighted by CZ suggests that the crypto market may be moving beyond short-term speculative cycles into a deeper structural growth phase. However, this does not imply that volatility will disappear. On the contrary, sharp corrections and rapid price swings are still likely within a broader upward trend. If such a prolonged cycle materializes, it could reshape long-term investment strategies and redefine how market participants approach risk in the digital asset space.

*This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Unlike previous cycles driven largely by retail speculation, today’s market is increasingly defined by professional investors, exchange-traded products, and long-term capital. This shift has transformed both the depth of corrections and the pace of recoveries.

Institutional Capital Redefines Market Behavior

One of the clearest signals of this transition comes from recent correction data. Even after a price pullback of roughly thirty percent, outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds remained limited to around five percent. For Bernstein, this suggests that institutional conviction remains largely intact even during periods of volatility.

With more than eight hundred billion dollars in assets under management, the firm believes that institutional activity now plays a stabilizing role. Sharp retail-driven sell-offs that once triggered deep crashes appear to have a far weaker impact under the current market structure.

Updated Price Outlook for 2026 and 2027

Bernstein’s medium-term projections reflect this new confidence. Analysts now view one hundred fifty thousand dollars as a realistic price target for Bitcoin in 2026. Beyond that, they expect the broader bull market to extend into 2027, with a potential cycle peak forming near two hundred thousand dollars.

This outlook marks a clear departure from the historical pattern tied closely to halving events. Rather than a compressed four-year rhythm, Bernstein envisions a longer and more gradual expansion supported by sustained institutional demand.

A Bold Long-Term Projection Toward 2033

The firm’s vision extends well beyond the next crypto market cycle. Bernstein continues to maintain its long-term scenario in which Bitcoin could approach one million dollars by 2033. This outlook is built on the assumption that global inflation pressures, declining trust in fiat systems, and expanding digital asset adoption will persist over the next decade.

From this perspective, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed not only as a speculative instrument but also as a macro-level hedge within global portfolios.

A Market Structure in Transition

In summary, Bernstein argues that Bitcoin and crypto currencies are evolving into a core financial asset rather than remaining a purely speculative vehicle. As institutional participation deepens, extreme boom-and-bust patterns appear to be giving way to longer, more structurally supported growth phases. Whether this new model fully replaces the old cycle framework will become clearer in the coming years.

This content does not constitute investment advice.

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Park argues that this shift stems from the decreasing influence of supply-driven shocks. While miner economics and halving events once played a major role in shaping medium-term market behavior, those variables have lost their power. Instead, Bitcoin’s trajectory today is increasingly dictated by ETF flows and institutional decision-making patterns.

The End of the Old Bitcoin Cycle: Supply Impact Diminishes

Historically, Bitcoin major bull runs were reinforced by a combination of reduced supply, rising media attention, and aggressive retail participation. These elements created a self-reinforcing cycle that repeatedly aligned with the halving timeline. Park asserts that this model no longer defines the market, noting that supply constraints have limited influence in an environment dominated by large asset managers.

In the institutional era, fund managers’ year-end performance targets and liquidity considerations have become central to Bitcoin’s price behavior.

Inside the ETF Era: A New Two-Year Decision Cycle

Park highlights that professional investors tend to reassess their risk exposure around annual P&L periods, making them more likely to exit volatile assets during periods of uncertainty. Even prolonged sideways movement, he notes, can trigger selling pressure.

Another structural factor is the divide between ETF inflows. While most capital that entered during 2024 remains in profit, a significant portion of 2025 entrants is underwater. This creates a decision crossroads for institutional players:

• wait for a stronger rally, or

• consider exiting positions at a loss.

This dynamic could form a pivotal stress point within Bitcoin’s emerging two-year cycle.

The Significance of the 84,000 Dollar Region

Park emphasizes that the current price area around 84,000 dollars is a key threshold for ETF investors, serving as a rough average cost basis for many institutions. Large inflows recorded between October and November 2024 mean these investors require substantial performance through 2026 to meet their compounded return expectations. Failure to achieve this may activate the two-year evaluation window and potentially introduce new waves of institutional selling.

Time as a Pressure Mechanism

One of Park’s most notable claims is that time itself has become a headwind. Bitcoin is often presented to investment committees as an asset capable of generating annualized returns of 25–30 percent. When price growth stalls, the expected return profile declines even without a drop in price, weakening Bitcoin appeal relative to its risk. In the institutional environment, this could trigger a new form of structural sell pressure.

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Investors Still Don’t Understand Bitcoin’s Core Value

Speaking at the Global Blockchain Congress 2025 in Dubai, Budki emphasized that Bitcoin’s price could decline between 65% and 70% within the next two years. He argued that the potential drop wouldn’t reflect a failure of the asset itself, but rather the psychology of uninformed investors:

“Even if Bitcoin falls to $70,000, it doesn’t lose its purpose. The real issue is that many investors don’t understand what Bitcoin actually represents. People tend to sell what they don’t understand at the first sign of panic — and that’s what creates downward pressure.”

Despite his bearish short-term outlook, Budki remains optimistic in the long run. He predicts that Bitcoin could surpass $1 million within the next decade, driven by both speculative interest and a growing number of real-world use cases.

Has the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Lost Its Relevance?

Some market experts believe the traditional four-year halving cycle may no longer dictate Bitcoin’s behavior as it once did. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, suggests that Bitcoin is now increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rates and global liquidity — rather than its internal supply mechanics.

According to Hayes, the direction of Bitcoin’s price is now shaped more by monetary policies and economic conditions than by halving events or block rewards.

Institutional Demand Brings a New Kind of Stability

Other analysts point out that the growing institutional adoption of Bitcoin has made the asset more resilient to short-term volatility. Data from BitcoinTreasuries.net shows that governments, crypto-focused banks, ETFs, and digital asset firms collectively hold over 4 million BTC, representing around 20% of the total supply.

This rising institutional exposure, some argue, helps moderate extreme price swings and supports the asset’s legitimacy as a long-term investment.

Xapo Bank CEO: “The 4-Year Cycle Still Exists”

On the other hand, Seamus Rocca, CEO of Xapo Bank, maintains that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact. He notes that investors continue to view Bitcoin as a risk-on asset, meaning its price movements are still largely tied to market sentiment and cyclical patterns.

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