From a technical perspective, DOGE is currently at a key resistance level. If this resistance is broken, we may see a quick move toward the 0.22 region. However, the 0.18 level is also crucial; if this level fails to break, DOGE could start declining again. This potential drop may suggest Trump has lost the election. For now, we should only follow the breakouts. Entering a trade without a breakout could lead to a trapped position, so waiting is advisable.

DOGE Market Data

Price: $0.1742

Daily Change: +11.25%

Market Cap: $25.55B (+11.45%)

24-Hour Volume: $3.72B (+56.10%)

FDV: $25.55B

Volume / Market Cap (24 Hours): 14.20%

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US Election Date

The US presidential elections are held every four years on the first Tuesday of November. The 2024 elections will also be held on Tuesday, November 5. Voters will choose between the incumbent president and the presidential candidates to determine the leader of the country.

Candidates and Parties

In these elections, the two major political parties, Democrats and Republicans, are competing with two prominent candidates. The Democratic Party’s candidate is incumbent President Joe Biden, but there has been a change to Kamala Harris as the election approaches, and the Republican Party’s candidate is Donald Trump.

Election Process and Campaigns

The election process in the USA begins with a long process of determining the candidate. Both the Democratic and Republican Party hold primaries, and at the end of this process, the official presidential candidate of each party is determined. Presidential candidates try to win votes by making various promises to the public during the election campaigns. The main topics of the campaigns focus on important issues such as the economy, health, immigration, education and foreign policy. This year, especially issues such as inflation, unemployment rates, environmental policies and international relations are of great interest to the voters.

Electoral System: Electoral College

In the US presidential elections, the president is not elected by direct vote. The election is carried out with a system called the “Electoral College”. Each state has a delegate count determined by its population, and when candidates receive the most votes in a state, they win all the delegates of that state. It is necessary to win at least 270 of the 538 delegates for the presidency. This system encourages candidates to collect votes not only in large states but also throughout the country.

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The Importance and Impact of Elections

The US presidential elections not only affect the domestic politics of the US, but also global politics and the economy. Since the US is one of the largest economies in the world, the presidential election also affects world markets, international diplomacy and security relations. For this reason, the 2024 elections are being followed with curiosity around the world.

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Expectations for Trump Have Declined on Polymarket and Kalshi

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are known as platforms where users can speculate and place bets on political events. On these platforms, Trump’s chances of winning, which peaked in recent weeks, have now experienced a 10% decline. Experts suggest that this change could be attributed to various factors.

On Kalshi and Polymarket, Trump’s odds of victory have dropped over 10% from their all-time highs. On Polymarket, his peak rate of 71.5% on July 16 has fallen to 59.1%, while on Kalshi, his highest value of 65.2% on October 29 has decreased to 55%. (Kalshi’s prediction market became available on October 4.)

‘Whale’ Investor: “I Have No Political Agenda”

During this process, a prominent investor has drawn attention by emphasizing that the trades made in favor of Trump on the platforms are not connected to any political agenda. Typically referred to as “whales,” large investors can wield significant influence in the markets by using substantial amounts of capital. However, this investor argues that the trades are solely aimed at financial gain and do not have any political motives.

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Uncertainty Reigns in the Markets

With increasing uncertainties surrounding the election process in the upcoming period, fluctuations in predictions regarding Trump’s chances of winning are anticipated. This situation could lead to more speculation and volatility in the markets. Analysts point out that Trump’s odds in prediction markets may continue to fluctuate based on political developments in the coming weeks.

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Harris’ Opportunity Economy and Crypto Support

According to Harris’ campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond, this move is part of her “Opportunity Economy” promise. Richmond said Harris aims to build an economy where black men are equipped with the tools they need to own homes, support their families, start businesses, and build wealth.

Harris’ approach to cryptocurrency appears to have softened since the start of her campaign. For example, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen donated nearly $1 million worth of XRP to the Harris-Walz 2024 presidential campaign. This has led to the perception of Harris as a candidate open to bipartisanship on regulating digital assets.

However, not everyone associated with the Harris campaign is positive about this “crypto opening.” Some community members are skeptical of Harris’ moves toward crypto, with the phrase “protecting cryptocurrency ownership” in her campaign documents standing out. Harris is promising to create a regulatory framework that aims to protect crypto owners and provide security for their assets.

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These steps suggest that Harris is aiming to grow support among the crypto community, especially among black entrepreneurs.

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These contracts, often referred to as binary options, allow participants to bet on specific election-related outcomes such as presidential nominees, state winners, and Senate seat results. Kalshi’s move comes just weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, creating a new market for political betting.

Might interest you: What is BabyDoge?

Despite Kalshi’s court win, the CFTC expressed concerns, claiming that such election markets could undermine the integrity of elections. However, proponents argue that prediction markets like Kalshi can provide a more accurate reflection of public sentiment than traditional polling.

Kalshi is currently playing catch-up to Polymarket, a leading Web3-based election betting platform, which has reportedly seen over $1 billion in volume. Kalshi, by contrast, has so far attracted $775,000 in volume. With the court rulings allowing election betting in place, Kalshi’s entry could mark the start of a broader trend in political event trading.

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A poll conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University on Aug. 30 of 801 US voters who claimed they possessed digital assets revealed that these individuals were more inclined to support Trump over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris in November. According to the national poll taken between Aug. 17 and Aug. 20, Trump led Harris by 12 points among registered voters who own cryptocurrencies, while Harris led by 12 points among non-crypto holders.

“Trump has been interacting with the crypto community, and it seems to have paid off,” Fairleigh Dickinson professor Dan Cassino said. “I don’t think people realize exactly how common crypto ownership is, even if it would be simple to discount them as negligible.”

As the election draws near, the poll did not really probe respondents regarding the policies of the presidential contenders on cryptocurrencies or blockchain, which has been evolving. From declaring Bitcoin a “scam” in 2021 to having his campaign defend miners and accept crypto donations in 2024, Trump has openly changed his stance.

Vice President Harris launched her campaign on July 21 and has mainly stayed quiet on digital matters. A Harris staffer allegedly indicated during the Democratic National Convention that the presidential contender will “support policies” for the expansion of the crypto sector.

The poll also took place before Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement of suspending his campaign and promising support for Trump in 2024. Given the Independent candidate appears to gain support from many, including those leaning Democrat or Republican, it is uncertain whether single-issue crypto voters supporting RFK Jr. will automatically migrate to Trump.

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Following the change in Polymarket odds and polls in Harris’s favor, the broker observed that bitcoin has lost value, so it expects the world’s biggest cryptocurrency to “remain rangebound until there is a clearer election signal.” Republicans have referred to this as the “initial honeymoon phase” and contend that polymarket odds are easily manipulated, the newspaper added.

Trump’s side has been extremely outspoken about its crypto policy, Bernstein observes, and has interacted with businesses in the industry, bitcoin (BTC) miners, as well as the larger community.

“The Trump-led Republican side has made a strong pitch to crypto voters by promising favorable policy for bitcoin and crypto innovation, even teasing a potential national bitcoin reserve,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said.

In a speech last month at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, former President Trump promised to keep a strategic national bitcoin reserve and declared he would never sell the government’s seized bitcoin should he be elected once more.

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Former President Donald Trump recently shared his thoughts on cryptocurrencies, prompting Kamala Harris’s campaign to spotlight his remarks.

Trump: Bitcoin Could Address $35 Trillion Debt

Donald Trump highlighted the potential benefits of the U.S. government adopting cryptocurrencies, specifically Bitcoin, as a solution to the nation’s colossal debt. In a recent interview with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business, Trump praised the “very smart people” in the crypto industry and suggested that embracing Bitcoin could help tackle the $35 trillion national debt. Trump stated, “Who knows? Maybe we pay off our $35 trillion debt, give them a little crypto check, right? A little bitcoin, and we wipe out our $35 trillion debt.”

Harris: Trump’s Crypto Remarks Under Scrutiny

Although Kamala Harris has yet to clearly define her stance on cryptocurrencies, her campaign team quickly criticized Trump’s comments. Using their rapid response campaign account on the X platform, Harris’s team highlighted the impracticality of Trump’s proposal and questioned his understanding of the issue.

During his interview, Trump also took the opportunity to criticize President Joe Biden’s administration and its stance on cryptocurrencies. He accused Biden of trying to shut down the crypto industry, claiming, “Biden is trying to shut it down – Biden doesn’t have the intelligence to shut it down.” Trump argued that if the U.S. doesn’t embrace cryptocurrencies, other countries will, thus putting the U.S. at a disadvantage.

Cryptocurrencies have garnered significant attention in recent years, with many viewing them as the future of finance. However, there is considerable debate among experts regarding the feasibility of using these digital assets to solve massive economic issues like national debt. Trump’s assertions have reignited discussions about the role of cryptocurrencies in addressing such challenges.

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