Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar After Weak Jobs Report!

Yeliz Akmaca — Tue, 05 Aug 2025 09:00:47 +0000

The latest U.S. employment data has caused a major shift in monetary policy expectations. Job growth in July came in well below forecasts. This weakness has rapidly strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting has risen to 90.1%. Earlier in the day, this probability was calculated at 89.1%. This indicates that expectations have strengthened significantly during the day.

In contrast, the probability assigned by investors to rates being held steady is just 5.6%, showing how clearly the market is positioned for a rate cut.

Trump and the Fed Chairmanship: Another Factor Behind the Rate Cut Expectation

Meanwhile, another factor boosting the probability of a rate cut is Trump’s plan to appoint a new Fed Chair. President Trump is reportedly planning to replace Adriana Kugler, whose term is ending, with someone who favors rate cuts. Kugler has consistently voted against rate cuts throughout 2025. If she remains on the board until the September meeting, she is expected to vote again to keep rates unchanged.

The Fed has held the policy rate steady at the 4.25%–4.50% range since December 2024. No changes have been made over the last five meetings. However, the July 2025 non-farm payroll report, showing just 73,000 new jobs versus the expected 147,000, triggered a sharp market reaction. This gap has raised concerns about the strength of economic growth.

BlackRock’s 50 Basis Point Surprise Forecast: Cautious Optimism in Markets

Moreover, it’s not just a 25 basis point cut that’s on the table—there’s talk of a 50 basis point move. BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder suggested that a more aggressive cut in September is possible. According to Rieder, the Fed may implement two or three more cuts throughout the remainder of the year.

According to BlackRock’s institutional market outlook, current U.S. economic conditions demand a looser monetary policy. Inflationary pressures and slowing consumer spending further support this expectation.

Still, the timing and scale of the rate cut remain crucial. Investors are closely watching the Fed’s September decision. The pressure created by weak jobs data will largely shape the outcome.

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The post Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar After Weak Jobs Report! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Breaking News: The FED Has Announced Its Interest Rate Decision!

Yeliz Akmaca — Wed, 18 Jun 2025 18:12:30 +0000

Investors around the world were focused today on the interest rate decision of the US Federal Reserve (FED). This meeting, one of the most critical moments in the economic calendar, did not lead to a major surprise in the markets: The FED kept the policy rate steady at the 4.25%–4.50% range. The FED revised its interest rate projections to 3.9% for the end of 2025, 3.6% for the end of 2026, and 3.4% for the end of 2027.

FED Expectations

In light of recent inflation and employment data, the markets had been receiving strong signals that the FED might hold rates steady at this meeting. These expectations were confirmed. The current rate was 4.50%, and the announced rate remained unchanged in line with forecasts.

FED Chair Jerome Powell is set to hold a press conference following the decision. While reaffirming the commitment to combating inflation, Powell also provided significant signals regarding the upcoming period. According to the Fed’s calendar, the next FOMC meeting will be held on July 29-30. Following the decision, Bitcoin was trading at $104,400. Brent Crude hovered around $76.45 per barrel.

Global Impact and Future Expectations

The FED’s interest rate decision affects not just the US but the entire global economy. Additionally, today the Euro Area’s Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) was announced at 1.9% (Forecast: 1.9%, Previous: 2.2%). While volatility increased in European and Asian markets following the decision, investors will closely follow upcoming economic data and guidance from FED officials. Market fluctuations may continue until the next FED meeting. In particular, inflation and unemployment data will become even more critical during this period.