Important Moves from 21Shares and Invesco Galaxy 

21Shares updated its S-1 filing for the spot Solana ETF. This update indicates that the SEC’s typical review process has begun. Analysts have an optimistic expectation for Solana ETF approval, with market experts seeing a high likelihood. 

Invesco Galaxy officially submitted a spot Solana ETF (QSOL) application together with Cboe BZX. This fund aims to track the Lukka Prime Solana Reference Rate and directly hold SOL. 

Invesco Galaxy’s rapid official filing shows the competitive dynamics in the Solana ETF market. The firm had previously taken “early steps” toward a Solana ETF but now entered the market quickly with an official S-1 filing. This reflects Solana’s growing appeal for institutional investors. Large financial institutions entering this market quickly emphasize Solana’s potential. 

Additionally, Canary Capital filed an ETF application based on Injective (INJ) through the Cboe BZX platform. 

Other Applications and Approval Expectations 

Eight issuers including VanEck, Canary Capital, Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, and CoinShares have filed S-1 applications for spot Solana ETFs. Analysts and the broader market maintain an optimistic outlook for Solana ETF approval. 

Polymarket forecasts a 91% approval probability for 2025, with a 68% chance by July 31. Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart predict that Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETFs have a 95% likelihood of approval in 2025. Decisions are expected by October. 

In the past, the SEC launched similar crypto products simultaneously. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs also debuted on the same days. This approach was used to “level the playing field” and simplify internal review processes. 

SEC and Market Competition: Simultaneous Launch or First-come, First-served? 

Issuers like VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital sent a joint letter to the SEC requesting a return to a “first-come, first-served” model. This reflects the tension between ensuring a “fair playing field” and “encouraging innovation” in the market. 

If the SEC continues simultaneous launches, well-known issuers like Fidelity could attract more assets even if they apply later. Otherwise, the “first-come, first-served” model would reward early movers and accelerate product development. The outcome of this decision will shape the competitive environment for future crypto ETFs.

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