While this figure alone may seem modest, the two-week trend tells a different story. During this period, total new investments flowing into spot BTC ETFs have reached around $1.47 billion.

The market is closely monitoring whether institutional demand is showing a clear recovery after a weak start to the year.

ETF Inflows Support Bitcoin Prices

BTC has shown renewed upward momentum in recent days. The fresh capital flowing into spot ETFs appears to have a supportive effect on prices after weeks of stagnation.

According to SoSoValue, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted roughly $1.47 billion in new allocations over the past two weeks.

Data from Bloomberg Intelligence over a broader timeframe indicate a similar trend. Investors have directed around $1.7 billion into U.S. spot BTC ETFs since February 24, signaling that institutional players may feel the market has bottomed, at least in the short term.

ETF Flows Don’t Always Impact Spot Prices Immediately

Not all market participants share the same optimism.

Bitfinex analysts note that ETF inflows do not always translate directly into immediate buying pressure in the spot market. Authorized participants can sometimes create ETF shares and short sell before acquiring underlying Bitcoin, meaning the actual impact on prices may be delayed.

Bitcoin Seen as a Geopolitical Hedge

Nevertheless, some market observers see a changing role for Bitcoin. Bitfire CEO Livio Weng suggests BTC is increasingly considered a geopolitical hedge, rather than purely a speculative risk asset.

Unlike gold, Bitcoin trades 24/7 and can move across borders instantly, allowing capital to react quickly during periods of geopolitical tension. For some investors, this makes Bitcoin a potential safe haven in global crises.

On-Chain Data Suggest Caution

Blockchain data indicate a more cautious picture.

Glassnode reports that buying momentum has significantly weakened, and realized profits have sharply declined. The 30-day moving average of realized gains has fallen approximately 63% since early February.

Only 57% of Bitcoin Supply in Profit

Another key metric is the portion of Bitcoin supply in profit.

At current levels, only about 57% of circulating Bitcoin is in profit, a level historically associated with the early stages of bear markets.

Glassnode also highlights the short-term investors’ cost basis, estimated near $70,000. This suggests that approaching this level may trigger exits from break-even positions, potentially converting upward moves into distribution zones.

Critical Price Range

Overall, the picture for BTC is complex.

On one hand, institutional capital via ETFs signals renewed market stability. On the other, on-chain data suggest investor behavior could remain fragile.

Many analysts view the $70,000–$72,000 range as a key zone that could determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Current Bitcoin Metrics

• Bitcoin price: ~$72,500

• ETF net inflows (latest day): $155 million

• Two-week ETF inflows: ~$1.47 billion

• Total inflows since Feb 24: ~$1.7 billion

• Bitcoin supply in profit: ~57%

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Bitcoin reached a strong position in the crypto market with a 64% market dominance by the end of May 2025. Notably, the 1% market depth on US-based exchanges hit a record $290 million, indicating increased liquidity. 

Trump Media’s $2.5 billion Bitcoin plan is also attracting attention. Funds raised from equity and bond sales will be used directly to purchase Bitcoin. This move clearly demonstrates growing institutional investor interest in crypto. Meanwhile, BTC has been trading sideways between $106,600 and $111,700 since May 22. Despite short-term uncertainties, this suggests investors are not showing significant selling pressure. 

The altcoin market, however, is weakening in response to these developments. Ethereum’s implied volatility (IV) curve has inverted, showing a 60% increase, indicating investors are making rapid position changes. Trading volume in altcoins is concentrated in major projects, while smaller projects are losing volume. According to Kaiko data, liquidity in BTC and altcoin markets significantly declined in Q2 2025. The decrease in trading volumes is more pronounced in altcoins, whereas Bitcoin’s options market shows increased volume. These data imply the market is preparing for short-term volatility, with investors focusing on risk management. 

Options Data Signals Bullish Outlook 

The BTC options market carries optimism for the near term. Deribit data shows some investors taking positions pricing Bitcoin at $300,000 by the end of June, indicating strong bullish expectations. 

Additionally, implied volatility data supports the anticipation of upward movement. Implied volatility reflects investors’ predictions of future price fluctuations of assets like BTC or Ethereum. High implied volatility signals expectations of large price swings, while low implies a calmer market. Investors are becoming more willing to take risks. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average is around $94,500. The current price is approximately $14,000 above this average, indicating strong momentum. This suggests the market is technically sound and supports Bitcoin’s upward trend. Market moves may accelerate. 

Over the last five days, BTC has risen approximately 8.2%, while the S&P 500 index has dropped over 2.6%. This shows Bitcoin’s clear divergence from traditional stocks from a macroeconomic perspective. 

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