This picture is supported not only by price movements but also by the flow of realized profits and losses. Particularly, losses accumulated since the end of December align with early bear market behaviors observed in previous cycles.

Why Did Profit Flows Reverse?

According to CryptoQuant’s weekly report, Bitcoin holders have realized net losses totaling 69,000 BTC since December 23. This marks the first 30-day period in which network participants posted net losses. For the first time since October 2023, investors moved from profits to selling at a loss. In other words, holders closed positions at prices lower than their purchase.

However, this shift did not happen overnight. On-chain data shows that realized profits have gradually declined since March 2024. As price momentum weakened, the bull phase ended, and holders began realizing lower profits.

The critical point is that profits are falling even while prices remain relatively high, signaling a structural shift in investor behavior.

Crypto Market “Extreme Fear”: Bitcoin Under Pressure

Dangerous Similarities With the 2021–2022 Cycle

Analysts highlight that the current structure bears striking resemblance to the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition. Back then, net realized profits peaked in January 2021, followed by lower local tops in February and November. The network then entered a net loss phase.

Notably, investors realized lower net profits at higher prices, indicating that the market could no longer absorb gains and had entered a distribution phase.

Today’s pattern is following a similar trajectory. Net realized profits peaked in January 2024, then fell to lower peaks in December 2024, July, and October 2025. Currently, margins have turned fully negative.

Early Bear Market Signals

Looking deeper at the data, Bitcoin’s annual net realized profits dropped from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC today, a level last seen in March 2024. More importantly, this pace and level of decline nearly mirrors the start of the last bear market in March 2022.

Even more striking is the net loss behavior. Current loss patterns almost exactly replicate the first bear phase in March 2022, when price momentum had already weakened and the market was sustained by “correction” narratives. On-chain data, however, had already signaled danger well in advance.

A similar investor sentiment gap is forming today.

Why Is Demand Not Reacting?

CryptoQuant and other on-chain sources indicate no significant demand increase from ETFs or spot markets. Even though short-lived improvements occurred, total demand has contracted again over the past 30 days.

This suggests a lack of natural buyers to push prices higher. Rising realized losses imply that investors are increasingly moving toward exits rather than waiting.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin May Be Repeating the 2021–2022 Cycle appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Why it matters?

The growing gap between gold and Bitcoin highlights a shift in investor behavior during periods of macro uncertainty. Similar divergences in the past have often preceded changes in risk appetite across global markets.

Gold Strength Supported by Rates, ETFs, and Central Banks

Gold’s rally has been underpinned by several macro factors. The US dollar slipped to a two-month low during the Asian session, providing additional support for bullion. Markets are currently pricing in a 76% probability of another Federal Reserve rate cut in January, further boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets.

According to the World Gold Council, holdings in gold-backed ETFs have increased in every month of the year except May. Central bank purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to reinforce demand. As interest rates fall, the opportunity cost of holding gold declines, keeping investor interest elevated.

Bitcoin Under Pressure After Liquidations

Bitcoin remains under selling pressure following an hour-long liquidation event that wiped out nearly $200 million in long positions on Monday. The asset is still trading roughly 30% below its October peak of $126,210, reflecting weaker short-term sentiment.

While gold tends to benefit from uncertainty, Bitcoin often trades more like a risk asset. During periods of heightened caution, capital flows typically favor stability over volatility, limiting upside momentum for cryptocurrencies.

Technical Signals Draw Market Attention

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin has not gone unnoticed by analysts. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index against gold has fallen below 30, a level reached only a handful of times historically. Analysts note that previous occurrences often aligned with market bottoms, though outcomes have varied depending on macro conditions.

The BTC/Gold pair is also testing a long-term ascending support line that has held since 2019. The current Z-Score sits near -1.76, placing the ratio in oversold territory. Still, analysts caution that technical patterns alone are not enough to predict a reversal, especially with inflation remaining above target levels globally.

Liquidity Levels Shape Short-Term Outlook

Bitcoin’s liquidation map highlights key price zones that could influence near-term volatility.

• Approximately $740 million in liquidity sits above the market near the $92,113 level.
• Around $175 million in liquidity is positioned below price near $87,112.

This imbalance suggests that upside moves could trigger larger liquidation cascades. However, sustained momentum will likely depend on spot market demand rather than derivatives activity alone.

On-Chain Data Shows Mixed Signals

On-chain indicators reveal continued spot selling on Binance and Coinbase over recent days. While Coinbase briefly showed signs of net buying, traders are watching closely to see whether daily closes confirm a shift in behavior. Binance, meanwhile, has recorded spot selling for eleven consecutive days.

ETF-driven inflows previously supported Bitcoin’s price action. However, data suggests that some of these coins have been redistributed via Binance, making renewed spot demand on the exchange a key factor for price stability.

Macro Data Could Influence Market Direction

Markets are now focused on upcoming US labor data following a six-week government shutdown. Economists expect a modest 50,000 increase in payrolls and an unemployment rate of 4.5%, pointing to a cooling but resilient labor market.

Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson notes that even moderate weakness in the data could strengthen the case for further rate cuts. Although the Fed recently reduced rates by 25 basis points and signaled a potential pause, officials have emphasized that current inflation levels do not reflect deeper structural pressure.

For now, gold continues to benefit from caution and uncertainty. Bitcoin, meanwhile, remains sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. Whether the gap between the two assets narrows will depend on how quickly investor confidence returns to higher-risk markets

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Gold Nears Record High as Bitcoin Falls Behind appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Significance of Bitcoin Outflows

Investors often withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges to hold it long-term or transfer it to secure custody accounts. Santiment notes that when fewer coins remain on exchanges, the likelihood of large-scale sell-offs historically decreases. Glassnode data shows that only 14.7% of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently held on exchanges, down from 18% in mid-2022. Ethereum’s figures are even lower, with 8.7% held on exchanges, reflecting a consistent downward trend as ETH is staked, custodied, or acquired by treasury companies.

Santiment highlighted this trend, stating:

“The less coins that exist on exchanges, the less likely we’ve historically seen a major sell-off that causes downside pressure for an asset’s price.”

Expert Opinions and Technical Analysis

Analyst Sykodelic noted that the OBV (On-Balance Volume) chart is signaling stronger movement than price action, indicating that buying is outpacing selling. Analyst Daan observed that Bitcoin is trading sideways in the short term while approaching its bull market support band. Meanwhile, Colin identified a bear-flag continuation pattern, predicting a potential drop to the $74,000–$77,000 range. These insights suggest that short-term volatility may continue.

As Bitcoin's market value hovers around $90K, crypto's top market cap continues to see its supply moving away from exchanges. Over the past year, there has been:

A net total of -403.2K $BTC moving off exchanges
A net reduction of -2.09% of $BTC's entire supply moving… pic.twitter.com/Y0JTC880Np

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 8, 2025

Short-Term Resistance and Market Dynamics

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had slipped below the $90,000 level, trading at $89,862. It remains within a weekly range-bound channel and struggles to surpass resistance near $92,000. Analysts note that the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut is already priced in, making a short-term upward breakout unlikely.

• Bitcoin outflows from exchanges support long-term price stability

• OBV indicates buying momentum is stronger than selling

• Declining exchange supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum reflects institutional accumulation

• Short-term resistance remains near $92,000

• Analysts anticipate continued market volatility

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin Flows Out of Exchanges, Selling Pressure Eases appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Investors await the Fed’s policy announcement. Rapid recovery to $100,000 seems unlikely. BTC futures premiums stayed below 5% over the past two weeks. Weak leveraged buying reflects the 28% decline since October’s all-time high.

Economic uncertainty limits investor confidence

A 43-day government funding gap in November delayed official employment and inflation data. Private employment reports showed 71,321 job cuts in November, providing limited optimism. Redfin data also indicated that 15% of home purchase agreements were canceled in October. High costs and uncertainty are increasing risk aversion among investors.

Leverage and options markets affect price

Bitcoin failed to reach $92,250 on Monday, dropping $2,650. This pullback accelerated after $92 million in leveraged BTC futures were liquidated. Put option premiums on Deribit reached 13%. Investors in China are exiting the crypto market as stablecoins trade below the official USD rate. This signals short-term downside risk.

• Key Takeaways:

• Slow spot ETF inflows limit upward momentum

• U.S. employment and housing data drive market confidence

• Leveraged trades amplify Bitcoin price movements

• Chinese investors exiting add pressure on prices

• Fed decisions may increase short-term volatility

Bitcoin’s short-term path depends on clearer U.S. economic data and housing conditions. Fed decisions may cause temporary swings. Long-term recovery requires improving economic outlook. Investors watch the $85,000–$90,000 range as critical support and maintain cautious positions.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin Fails to Break $92,000 as Investors Await Fed appeared first on Coin Engineer.

On-chain data shows that large holders continue to sell. Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC and those with 1,000–10,000 BTC remain net sellers, while smaller investors have also been gradually reducing their positions over the past 60 days. This leaves limited support for the market from retail participants.

Futures Stress and Market Pressure

Market observers note serious stress in Bitcoin’s futures markets. According to analyst Darkfost, long liquidations have reached levels not seen since the FTX collapse in 2022. October and November liquidation events mirror past crises, highlighting the market’s heavy leverage.

Meanwhile, mid-sized wallets holding 10–1,000 Bitcoin have been steadily accumulating, helping stabilize the price after the sharp drop from $106,000 to $79,500. Still, the ongoing distribution from large whales prevents a strong trend reversal.

Analysts Weigh In on a Possible Cycle Low

Analysts are divided on whether $79,500 marks a cycle bottom. Crypto Dan notes that short-term holders capitulated near $80,000, a pattern historically linked to local lows. Conversely, CryptoOnchain points out that long-term holders have distributed roughly 63,000 Bitcoin, signaling a transfer of wealth to newer investors.

Some commentators draw parallels with the COVID-19 crash, suggesting the market could recover without revisiting recent lows if momentum strengthens. However, other analysts warn that several bear-market signals are already visible, urging caution even if a final push higher is possible.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin at $80K? Whale Activity Warns of More Pressure appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Critical Levels

Corporate data shows that K33 Research reports the average cost basis of spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs in the US at roughly $89,613, about 11% below the current price. Investors view this as a critical technical support zone. (Sources: Bloomberg, K33 Research) BTC dropped to $98,944 during intraday trading, losing over 7% in 24 hours. This move tests key technical support levels.

Ethereum (ETH) fell about 14% to $3,089, marking its lowest level in four months. This highlights the volatility in the crypto market and investors’ withdrawal from risky assets.

Historic Drop in the US Stock Market

The US equity market lost roughly $730 billion in total market value today. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw sharp declines. The federal government shutdown, which began on October 1, has created market uncertainty. Combined with liquidity concerns and investor anxiety, this intensified selling pressure in both stocks and crypto markets.

Bitcoin and Altcoin Market Overview

According to CoinMarketCap, the global crypto market started at $4.3 trillion on October 6, dropped to $3.9 trillion around October 10–12, and fell again to $3.35 trillion by November 1. The 24-hour trading volume reached $280.73 billion.

The Fear & Greed Index reads 27, indicating “Fear.” The Altcoin Season Index shows 25/100, with Bitcoin dominating altcoins. The CoinMarketCap 20 Index at 210.95 mirrors the general market trend, showing that major cryptocurrencies are moving in line with the overall market decline.

Also, in the comment section, you can freely share your comments and opinions about the topic. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on Telegram, YouTube and Twitter for the latest news and updates

The post Bitcoin Falls Below $100K, US Stocks and Crypto Drop! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

New Whales’ High Cost Basis 

Firstly, the cost basis of new Bitcoin whales is approximately $91,900. This reflects the average acquisition price of short-term holders (STH) who have purchased over 1,000 BTC ($103.3 million) in the last 155 days. In contrast, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) is much lower. This disparity shows that new whales are entering the market at high prices. Moreover, it suggests that new investors taking positions above the current Bitcoin price may face unrealized losses. However, the confidence of these whales in the market could also reflect a long-term bullish outlook. 

Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior 

Additionally, on-chain data provides important clues for understanding investor behavior in the Bitcoin market. The Realized Price indicator, which measures the average cost basis of investors, sheds light on the overall market condition. Currently, the high cost basis of short-term whales indicates new capital inflows into the market. This proves that interest in Bitcoin persists and new players are taking positions despite high prices. On the other hand, the low cost basis of long-term whales shows that they are in profitable positions and contribute to market stability. These dynamics create an important foundation for Bitcoin’s future price movements. 

Furthermore, analysts view Bitcoin’s trajectory above $100,000 positively. Investtech notes that the upward trend continues in the short and medium term, though a reaction may occur at the $105,500 resistance level. On-chain data reflects new capital inflows and whales’ confidence in the market. 

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post New Bitcoin Whales: Costs Three Times Higher!  appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Bank of America Market Analysis 

In a note dated May 8, Michael Hartnett stated that the rally surged in the second quarter due to tariff optimism. However, this recovery has now ended. Investors are following a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” strategy. Although the S&P 500 rose 14% after Trump’s tariff pause announcement on April 9, it is down 3.7% for the year. 

Hartnett believes U.S. stocks are in a “late-stage structural bear market.” For this reason, he recommends bonds and international markets over stocks. Foreign markets are outperforming the U.S. 

Bank of America Data and Investor Movements 

Bank of America’s data shows that $24.8 billion has flowed out of U.S. stocks over the past four weeks. This figure, sourced from EPFR Global, marks the largest outflow in two years. Investors are uncertain about the market’s future. This aligns with Hartnett’s warning that the rally is over. 

Still, there are some market movements. Trump’s consideration of tariff cuts during weekend talks with China sparked a short-term rise in indices. The Dow Jones rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.1%. However, futures remained nearly flat on Friday morning. 

Trump announced a trade framework with the UK. This is the first deal under the U.S.’s “reciprocal tariff” policy. The UK faces a 10% base tariff. Chris Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management calls this deal a “test run.” Agreements with China and other major trade partners will be more critical. 

Meanwhile, Trump’s optimism about China talks has* sparked market activity. However, investors remain cautious. Large bets are not being placed in futures. The S&P 500 is set to close the week with a 0.4% loss. The Nasdaq is down 0.3%, while the Dow is up 0.1%, marking its third positive week. 

The market is awaiting the outcome of Trump’s China talks. Reuters reports that tariff negotiations with China are at a critical stage this weekend. If a deal is reached, it could spark new market activity. According to The Wall Street Journal, investors are avoiding risks due to long-term uncertainties. 

In conclusion, Bank of America’s warning and investors’ cash withdrawals indicate that the stock market rally has stalled. Hartnett’s recommendation to shift to bonds and international markets may offer investors a new roadmap. 

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bank of America: Is the Stock Market Rally Over?  appeared first on Coin Engineer.