Weak Hands and Price Pressure

Over the past year, investors who purchased Bitcoin at higher costs closed positions at a loss as the price fell below the psychological $100,000 mark. Especially for holders in the 3–12 month range, this has been a real test. At this point, weak hands were liquidated while the market searched for a new support around $85,000–$90,000.

BTC prices briefly dropped to $87,700, while altcoins suffered even heavier losses; Ethereum fell over 5% in a single day. The pressure was not limited to spot markets; leveraged positions were also hit, with over $360 million in long positions liquidated. For traders using leverage, this represented a critical juncture.

Liquidity and Macroeconomic Pressures

The decline in stablecoin reserves on exchanges has constrained buying appetite, making short-term recovery more challenging. Institutional investors remain cautious, and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity policies, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, reinforce this stance.

The drop in the BTC/Gold ratio shows investors moving toward safe-haven assets. According to CryptoQuant’s Quicktake report, fear levels remain elevated. Selling pressure is evident in both spot and derivatives markets, complicating consolidation. Furthermore, the funding uncertainty and political deadlock fueling the potential U.S. government shutdown have added pressure to risky assets, and cryptocurrency is no exception. Polymarket indicates that the probability of this event has risen to 75%, keeping investors cautious.

Short-Term Technical Outlook

Bitcoin broke below the $86,800 support level, closing the day beneath it. Currently, a short-term rebound is in progress, but another downward leg is likely after some upward movement.

The initial target for this rebound is between $91,750–$93,450. Capturing this zone is important, though the market’s weakness makes it a challenging task. Meanwhile, the first major support for a potential reversal lies around $83,760–$84,630. If the price touches this zone, the resulting reaction will indicate whether a reversal is underway. For now, the main trend remains bearish, and there is no fundamental reason to support an upward move.

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Bitcoin ETFs Reach Two-Month High

The spot Bitcoin ETF segment broke a 35-trading-day silence with a powerful move. Eleven US-based ETFs recorded their strongest single-day net inflow since $524 million on November 11. Spot Ethereum ETFs followed a similar pattern, posting their largest inflow in 15 trading days, surpassing the $177.7 million recorded on December 9.

December Challenged Investors

Crypto ETFs faced a difficult December amid broader market weakness. Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 1.56% and 1.39% respectively over the past 30 days. This downtrend started after Bitcoin reached $125,100 in October, followed by a $19 billion liquidation wave. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reflected investor caution, remaining between “Fear” and “Extreme Fear”, with the index returning to 25 points on Sunday.

Institutional Investors Adjust Strategies

Tonso’s marketing lead, Wal, commented on social media about this resurgence. Many institutional investors sold Bitcoin in Q4 2025 for tax-loss harvesting, and now they are rebuilding positions. In 2025, US investors directed $31.77 billion into crypto ETFs, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for $21.4 billion. However, this was below the $35.2 billion inflow in 2024.

Experts note that this renewed capital could help ease risk perception, but high volatility and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remaining at “Extreme Fear” still urge caution for investors.

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Market Pricing Shows Limited Upside

Polymarket shows Bitcoin’s chance of reaching $150,000 at only %21. $140,000 has %28, $130,000 is at %35, and even $120,000 holds just %45 probability. The most “secure” level investors trust is $100,000 at %80. This signals not rejection, but a deliberate restraint on risk appetite.

Part of the caution comes from BTC four-year halving cycle losing influence. Historically, this cycle provided guidance for price projections, but 2025’s negative finish has disrupted the pattern. Without this reference, investors are focusing on attainable ranges rather than ambitious targets.

Macro Factors Present, Yet Unpriced

Anticipation of a new U.S. Federal Reserve chair and possible interest rate cuts could benefit crypto. Metals like gold and silver surged in Q4 2025, but digital assets remain flat. This divergence shows that while the macro story exists, investor reaction is still delayed.

Analysts Bullish, Markets Hesitant

Major firms continue to project $150K+ for Bitcoin, with some targeting $200K–$250K. Yet Polymarket data shows these projections have not yet translated into widespread market conviction. Investors are listening but not fully buying in, leaving the market poised for cautious movement.

The Bitcoin upside story is intact but restrained, reflecting a market not yet ready to commit.

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Transaction Fee Decline Factors

Since the beginning of the year, XRP transaction fees have fallen dramatically. Open interest in the futures market also dropped significantly, from 1.75 billion tokens in early October to 0.74 billion tokens. This signals that derivatives traders have reduced confidence in ripple recovery potential. Social sentiment toward XRP has also slipped into the “fear” zone, reflecting rising caution among investors.

Data from blockchain analytics firm Santiment shows that large wallets increased selling pressure. Over the past week, wallets holding 1 to 10 million XRP collectively moved 510 million tokens. These wallets represent some of the largest investors in the market, holding positions worth approximately $2 to $20 million at current prices. This activity adds short-term downside pressure.

Technical Analysis: Downside Risks for XRP

XRP/USD is forming a descending triangle pattern, with support at $2. If the price breaks below this level, the measured target points to $1.73, roughly a 15% decline. The $2–$1.98 zone remains a critical support area. If this support fails, the price could fall toward $1.61.

Opportunities and Market Sentiment

Some analysts argue that the drop in transaction fees and negative sentiment could precede a strong token rally. Market psychology and technical indicators together suggest investors should monitor short-term declines carefully. Additionally, XRP ETF products reached $1 billion in assets under management in under four weeks and now total approximately $1.23 billion. Four ETFs manage over 597 million XRP, with net inflows of $935 million, highlighting strong institutional demand.

• Transaction fees hit five-year lows

• Descending triangle pattern targets $1.73

• Social sentiment in the “fear” zone

• Futures open interest dropped sharply

• Support range $2–$1.98 is crucial

**Not investment advice.

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• Investor confidence is decreasing.
• Market psychology is shifting.
• Capital flows are turning negative.

Following these negative developments, it would not be wrong to say that potential market maps may be redrawn.

What is Usdt.d?

Think of all the stablecoins in the crypto market. Among them are USDT, USDC, USDE, and many others. This is exactly where usdt.d comes into play. The total amount of USDT circulating in the market, relative to the overall crypto market capitalization, gives us this metric. In short, it shows what percentage of investors’ funds currently sit in USDT.

Why Is USDT Dominance Important?

As mentioned earlier, usdt.d helps us follow certain strategic pathways. When this ratio increases, it indicates that investors are moving out of risky assets and into USDT as a “safe haven.” When this shift occurs, we see that market participants are favoring stablecoins.

In this article, you may also want to check out: The Critical Ethereum Update Date Is Approaching!

What Is Happening in November 2025?

As of November 2025, the long-standing 6% usdt.d resistance, unbroken since 2022, has finally been breached. This 6% zone was the top of a declining trend, and if momentum continues here, we could move toward another major breakout.

After giving an internal structural breakout and then moving sideways, usdt.d appears likely to retest the highlighted zone. If a pullback occurs to this level and it fails to close above 6.28%, we expect the downward movement to continue toward the 5.81% region. Investors without existing positions or those looking for new opportunities may consider entering positions if the price approaches the 6.28% level.

For the latest breaking crypto news, click here.

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Why Past November Gains May Not Reflect Today’s Market

For years, Bitcoin’s November averages appeared unusually strong due to several extreme outlier months that pushed the historical data higher. Analysts now argue that these inflated averages no longer provide an accurate benchmark. This season’s market conditions are shaped by delayed macroeconomic data, shifting inflation expectations and renewed uncertainty around rate cuts. As a result, comparing previous cycles with the current backdrop offers little practical guidance.

Confidence in a near-term monetary policy shift has also weakened, which limits the impact of traditional seasonal patterns. With expectations for a December rate cut falling, risk appetite across crypto markets has cooled. This environment makes it harder for Bitcoin to repeat the aggressive November rallies seen in earlier years.

Analysts See Early Signs of a Potential Stabilization

Despite the broader pullback, several analysts believe BTC may be approaching a short-term floor. Selling pressure appears to be easing and market behavior suggests that a local bottom could form if weaker hands continue to exit. Some analysts also note that the seasonal momentum typically associated with November could shift into December instead.

For Bitcoin to reclaim a stronger bullish tone, experts highlight the 97,000 to 100,000-dollar band as the first meaningful resistance zone. Sentiment is expected to stay defensive until this range is retested. Even so, analysts maintain that recoveries in crypto markets can form quickly once broader macro conditions stabilize.

Key Points

• Historical November averages are inflated by extreme outlier years
• Macro uncertainty lowers the reliability of seasonal Bitcoin trends
• Selling pressure is easing and a potential bottom may be near
• The 97k–100k region remains the next major resistance level

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Bitcoin and Long-Term Technical Levels

Bitcoin has dropped below its 365-day moving average (around $102,000), losing a key support level. This technical breakdown historically aligns with the onset of bear markets.

• Price action below the 365-day MA

• Risk signal compared to historical cycles

• Pressure on investor confidence

Additionally, BTC approaching the 6–12 month UTXO cost basis indicates mid-term market stress. This development calls for investors to watch closely for potential bear market risks or a bullish market rebound.

Market Sentiment and RSI Indicators

The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 10, signaling extreme fear. Similar levels in the past preceded short-term bear trends or mid-cycle corrections.

RSI readings show most crypto assets in oversold territory. BTC and major altcoins have an average RSI of 43, reminiscent of mid-cycle corrections seen in May–July 2021 and August 2023.

On the other hand, some altcoins and short-term BTC movements hint at a possible bullish market recovery.

MACD and Market Momentum Analysis

The market-wide normalized MACD averages 0.02, reflecting weak bullish momentum. About 58% of assets still show positive momentum.

Bitcoin remains in negative MACD territory, while altcoins show a mixed picture. This indicates the market is still in a mid-cycle breakdown, with both bear and bull market possibilities present.

Critical Criteria for Bear and Bull Markets

Certain technical indicators are crucial to confirm a definitive bear or bull phase:

• BTC remaining below the 365-day MA for 4–6 weeks → Bear market confirmation

• Long-term holders selling over 1M BTC in 60 days → Bear pressure

• MACD flipping entirely negative or positive across the market → Bear or bull momentum

These conditions are not fully met yet, so the market remains in a high-risk transitional phase.

While the crypto market has not officially entered a bear market, it is experiencing mid-cycle stress. BTC and altcoins are under technical pressure, and investors should monitor both bear market pressures and potential bullish recoveries carefully.

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Put/Call Ratio and Open Interest Levels 

This week’s Bitcoin options show a put/call ratio of 1.3, reflecting stronger bearish sentiment. Data from Deribit highlights key open interest (OI) levels: 

• $140,000 strike: $2.7B in OI 
• $120,000 strike: $1.8B in OI 
• $95,000 strike: $1.9B in OI 

Meanwhile, CoinGlass reports total Bitcoin futures OI at $86.6B, climbing toward all-time highs. 

Inflation Data and Fed Expectations 

U.S. inflation data revealed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in August, slightly higher than forecasts. This fueled expectations of mild inflationary pressure. 

Options provider Greeks Live noted implied volatility has remained stable despite next week’s Federal Reserve decision. Markets broadly agree that a 25 bps rate cut is already priced in. 

Ethereum Options Expiry 

Ethereum options add another layer to today’s expiry. With a put/call ratio of 1.0, sentiment remains balanced. The expiry of 190,000 ETH contracts worth $858M contributes significantly to the day’s market dynamics. 

Crypto Market Outlook 

• The total crypto market cap climbed to $4.11 trillion, its highest level since late August. 
• Bitcoin surged to a three-week high of $116,300 before easing to $115,500. 
• Ethereum gained 3.2%, touching $4,530, its strongest level in two weeks. 
• Altcoins such as Solana, Dogecoin, and Chainlink also posted solid gains, keeping the overall market in green territory. 
• Despite today’s heavy expiry, investors appear confident, with momentum favoring continued bullish sentiment. 

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Blockchain Center defines the altseason criterion as 75% of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days. Altseason periods are known for altcoins delivering rapid gains compared to Bitcoin during bull markets. However, the exact timing of this year’s altseason is still uncertain. 

Altcoin Market on the Rise 

The total altcoin market cap is approaching its all-time high from 2021, drawing close attention from traders. Crypto analyst “Daan Crypto Trades” stated that when altcoins return to price discovery, excitement across the market will increase. This trend is also expected to accelerate new investor participation. Karan Singh Arora noted that the altseason index is at its highest in nine months, and investors are turning back to risk-taking. 

According to TradingView, the total altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and stablecoins reached $1.63 trillion, approaching $1.64 trillion in November 2024 and $1.7 trillion in November 2021. Ash Crypto predicts that altcoins will show parabolic moves in the third phase of altseason. 

Top Performing Altcoins 

In the last 24 hours, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Avalanche (AVAX) showed the best performance. DOGE rose 5% to surpass $0.25, while AVAX gained 11% to reach $29, its highest since January. Hyperliquid (HYPE), Stellar (XLM), Litecoin (LTC), and Toncoin (TON) also saw gains above 3%. ACE coin, PIXEL, and NMR increased over 20%, making the altcoin market attractive for investors again. 

This altcoin rally is boosting risk appetite and encouraging investors to be more active. As the market continues to recover, investors are preparing to seize new opportunities, positioning altcoins for market leadership in the remaining months of the year. 

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Why Are Ethereum and Altcoins Falling?

Ethereum dropped 2.3% today, trading at $4,300. It lost 6.2% over the week. The Ethereum Foundation’s deposit of 10,000 ETH ($42.7 million) to Kraken sparked the decline. Additionally, whale sell-offs and shifting investor sentiment pressured the market. However, the fear and greed index shows neutral sentiment. This did not shield ETH and other altcoins from the downturn.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) also faced a sharp decline. Despite Trump family backing, WLFI fell 50% from its peak. Today, it dropped 8% to $0.2238. Token unlocks triggered investor sell-offs. Meanwhile, WLFI’s market cap stands at $5.54 billion. This reflects broader market pressure.

PythNetwork (PYTH) also saw a downturn. After nearly 100% gains in a day, PYTH fell 3.84% today. Mixed technical signals and profit-taking drove the decline. Still, PYTH remains up 37% weekly. Finally, Bonk (BONK) meme coin lost 1% today. A wallet linked to Galaxy Digital transferred 510 billion BONK to an exchange, increasing sell-off pressure.

How FOMC and Economic Data Impact the Market

The crypto market fluctuates with U.S. economic data releases this week. The JOLTS report comes today, followed by unemployment claims tomorrow and non-farm payrolls on Friday. These reports will influence Fed interest rate decisions. Moreover, $242 million in crypto positions were liquidated, affecting 107,700 investors.

Ethereum long positions saw $43 million in liquidations, followed by Bitcoin at $21.73 million.The market shows mixed trends. Bitcoin and XRP rise, while ETH, WLFI, and PYTH decline. This divergence stems from varying investor sentiments. Ultimately, volatility increases ahead of the FOMC meeting. Investors focus on economic data and Fed outcomes. 

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