Investors are cautiously optimistic, but technical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties still weigh on the market.

Bitcoin Max Pain Levels

Bitcoin accounts for the lion’s share of today’s expiry, with BTC options totaling around $1.94 billion.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading below the $92,000 “max pain” level at roughly $89,750. There are 21,657 open contracts: 11,944 calls and 9,713 puts. The put-call ratio of 0.81 indicates mild bullish sentiment while maintaining significant downside hedging.

Ethereum Position Pressure

Ethereum options total $347.7 million. ETH trades far below its $3,200 max pain level, at around $2,960.

The open interest consists of 117,513 contracts: 63,796 calls and 53,717 puts. The put-call ratio of 0.84 signals cautious optimism but continued downside protection.

Expiry Mechanics and Magnet Effect

According to Deribit analysts, price movements are currently shaped more by mechanical hedging flows than fundamental data.

Geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties push investors toward hedging rather than directional bets. This keeps implied volatility (IV) elevated.

As expiry approaches, Bitcoin’s $92,000 and Ethereum’s $3,200 levels act as price magnets. Prices approaching these levels may increase volatility; deviations could trigger rapid repositioning.

Post-Expiry Scenarios

Once contracts expire, accumulated gamma risk is released, and the market may experience sudden directional moves.

• If selling pressure eases: a weekend relief rally is possible.

• If macro risks persist: sharp downside moves may occur.

For BTC and ETH investors, today’s expiry is a critical market turning point.

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Large Wallets Are Building Positions

On-chain data shows that whales are meaningfully increasing their XRP holdings. The 50 million XRP surge appears more aligned with long-term strategy than short-term speculation.

Despite price fluctuations, these purchases are not coincidental. Large investors tend to build positions during periods of high volatility, suggesting the current price range is perceived as a “risk-adjusted opportunity” by some players.

Retail Investors Also Join the Trend

Accumulation is not limited to whales. According to TheCryptoBasic, retail wallets and whales together have acquired over $1 billion worth of XRP since early 2026.

This trend indicates the market narrative is not one-sided. Small investors often step in during quiet confidence phases before major price moves. In this period, accumulation clearly outweighs distribution.

XRP ETF Flows Begin to Stabilize

Coin Bureau reports that after $40.8 million in net ETF outflows last week, flows have returned to positive territory. This shift may strengthen investor confidence, especially among more traditional participants.

Stabilizing ETF activity could influence overall liquidity behavior in the market. However, it does not guarantee immediate price gains; instead, it signals a gradual restoration of investor trust.

Price Remains Steady Amid Attention

Despite these developments, XRP’s price remains relatively stable. The token traded at $2.06 with a minor 0.04% drop over the past 24 hours, while daily volume exceeded $1.37 billion, reflecting sustained market interest.

Whale buying continues, but the market’s reaction—timing and intensity—remains uncertain. The accumulation phase is far from over, making the coming days critical in determining the asset’s next directional moves.

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Big Investors Are Returning

Santiment analysts note that large wallets have remained mostly inactive, while small wallets accumulated aggressively in the second half of 2025. Historically, a bullish reversal often begins when big investors buy while retail sells. Long-term Bitcoin holders have also stopped offloading, after reducing their holdings from 14.8 million coins in July to 14.3 million in December.

“The second half of 2025 was dominated by aggressive accumulation from small wallets, while large wallets remained mostly flat, rising to October’s all-time high before facing selling pressure.”

The correlation between Bitcoin & crypto compared to other major sectors is still lagging behind. Since November began, price performances are:

Gold: +9%
S&P 500: +1%
Bitcoin: -20%

Heading to 2026, there will remain an opportunity for crypto to play "catch up". pic.twitter.com/FW8JaQboTV

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 30, 2025

Shift Back Into Crypto

Former BitForex CEO Garrett Jin suggests investors are starting to move capital from other sectors back into crypto. On-chain analytics from Nansen show active Bitcoin addresses up 5.51% in the last 24 hours, while transaction volume fell nearly 30%. Jin commented, “Capital is the same; always sell high and buy low.”

Market Cycle and Outlook

Investor CyrilXBT said the market is in a “classic late-cycle positioning.” Once BTC breaks structure, gold is expected to cool, Bitcoin will lead, ETH will follow, and altcoins will finally awaken. The analyst added, “This phase is designed to test conviction,” urging patience.

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At the top of the list is the IO unlock on August 11. Around 10.07 million IO will enter circulation, valued at $6.08 million, representing 5.44% of the circulating supply. 

On the same day, LAYER will see 10 million tokens unlocked, worth $6 million, equating to 0.97% of its total supply. Additionally, MOCA will increase its supply by 2.31% with an unlock of 206 million tokens valued at $16 million. 

Major Token Unlocks of the Week 

One of the week’s largest events will be the APT unlock on August 12. A total of 6.77 million APT worth approximately $30.31 million will be released, equal to 1.01% of circulating supply. 

On the same day, PEAQ will unlock 82.21 million tokens, representing 7.59% of supply and valued at $5.29 million. 

On August 15, STRK will release 127 million tokens, 3.31% of supply, worth $16.05 million. CYBER will also unlock 3.34 million tokens, 7.89% of its supply, adding $5.75 million in value to the market. 

Another notable event on August 15 is SEI’s unlock of 55.56 million tokens, 0.96% of supply, valued at $17.07 million. 

On August 16, ARB will stand out with an unlock of 92.65 million tokens, 1.80% of circulating supply, worth $38.63 million. 

These high-volume unlocks will directly impact market liquidity this week. In particular, unlocks from major projects like APT, ARB, and STRK could prompt investors to reassess their positions. 

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Ethereum’s surge past the $4,000 mark has significantly impacted Bitcoin’s dominance, which has fallen to 59.1%. According to CoinMarketCap, Ethereum’s market share has risen to 13%, while altcoins combined now hold 28% of the total market. A month ago, Bitcoin’s share stood at 63.9%, Ethereum at 9.7%, and other cryptocurrencies at 26.4%. 

Schiff stated that if forced to choose between the two, he would pick Bitcoin, while clarifying that he has no personal interest in owning either asset. 

Ethereum and Altcoins Gain Ground as BTC Weakens 

Market data shows Bitcoin dominance has dropped by 4.91 percentage points in the last month, while Ethereum gained 3.34 points. Altcoins collectively rose by 1.57 points in the same period, signaling a capital rotation from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies. 

Bitcoin’s highest dominance level in 2025 was 65.1% on June 27, while its lowest in the past year was 53.9% in December 2024. Ethereum, on the other hand, is trading near the upper range of its yearly performance. 

Ethereum’s bullish momentum has been fueled by increased whale transactions and heightened derivatives market activity. Rising trading volumes and open interest have reinforced short-term price strength, enabling ETH to outperform BTC in recent days. 

Despite this shift, Bitcoin remains the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization and the preferred choice among institutional investors. Strong demand from spot BTC ETFs and corporate treasuries continues to support its position at prices above $100,000. 

In conclusion, while Ethereum and altcoins are gaining market share, Bitcoin still holds the lead. The next moves in dominance will likely depend on macroeconomic factors, institutional participation, and whether Ethereum can sustain its current rally. 

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