Bitcoin Surges to $108,000

The standout move of the day comes from Bitcoin, which has climbed 1.82% in the past 24 hours, pushing past the $108,000 mark.

However, analysts warn that this rally may be short-lived. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, noted: “While the ceasefire has lifted market mood, uncertainty remains over how long this fragile peace will last.”

Leaked U.S. intelligence reports suggest that recent American strikes failed to significantly damage Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure — a factor that could reignite geopolitical tensions.

Powell’s Cautious Tone Provides Additional Relief

It’s not just the ceasefire that’s driving investor appetite. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony before Congress, emphasized a patient approach toward potential rate cuts. He acknowledged that inflation remains elevated and could face further pressure from rising tariffs in the coming months.

According to analysts at Bitunix, Powell’s “wait-and-see” message brings clarity amid policy uncertainty. While not signaling immediate action, it reassures markets that risk assets still have breathing room. Investors are now closely watching upcoming inflation reports and trade developments.

On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 index rose by 0.48%, reaching an all-time high of 22,296.53 points.

Data Increases Odds of July Rate Cut

Soft U.S. consumer confidence data pushed two-year Treasury yields down to a six-week low of 3.78%. Based on CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in July has climbed to 20%, up from just 13% a week ago. On Polymarket, traders currently price an 18% chance of a cut.

Later today, Powell is scheduled to appear before the Senate, in a hearing that could shape short-term market sentiment. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on the Fed, publicly stating that interest rates should be “at least two to three points lower.”

Options Market: Calm Yet Cautious

Crypto derivatives desks remain neutral ahead of the June 27 expiry. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, reported that traders are positioning with straddles and short puts around the $105,000 and $100,000 levels, suggesting expectations of limited short-term movement.

Still, the purchase of call options targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September reveals an underlying bullish bias, indicating some confidence in further upside.

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However, long-short ratios remained balanced. Analysts predict that the short-term downtrend may remain limited against long-term catalysts. On Monday afternoon, Bitcoin traded around $102,000. 

Previously, US missile strikes targeting Iran caused BTC to fall below $99,000. This decline triggered the liquidation of crypto leveraged positions exceeding $1 billion. Sharp drops were also observed in altcoin prices. 

Sharp Rise in Short-Term Volatility 

Derive.xyz stated that implied volatility (IV) surged rapidly as investors digested new geopolitical risks. According to The Block, one-week IV rose to 45% for Bitcoin and 83% for Ethereum. Afterwards, there was an approximate five-point drop. Derive Research Head Dr. Sean Dawson told The Block, “Volatility markets say this is not over yet.” 

Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz created uncertainty in the markets. However, QCP Capital noted that options traders assessed this scenario as low probability. Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin described this possibility as “economic suicide.” According to Puckrin, market participants did not take this threat seriously, and BTC subsequently rose again overnight. 

Resilient Market and New Catalysts 

Although long-short ratios slightly declined, recovery signals showed increased investor confidence. On Friday, Texas approved a law to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, becoming the third US state to do so. Michael Saylor’s company made new purchases, while investors like Anthony Pompliano increased their crypto treasury investments. BRN chief analyst Valentin Fournier stated these developments balance both geopolitical risks in the Middle East and macroeconomic fundamentals. Fournier noted, “Long-term structural demand is strengthening.” 

Solana is expected to perform better than Ethereum in this recovery phase. Ethereum experienced a short-term loss of institutional support but is predicted to regain value as volatility decreases. 

Market Calendar and Expectations 

Markets are now focused on two key dates: 

• July 9: End of Donald Trump’s 90-day tariff pause 
• July 30: Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting 

CME FedWatch data shows investors do not expect rate cuts after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish statements in June. QCP Capital emphasized that both the Fed’s decisions and developments in the Middle East could affect crypto prices in either direction. 

QCP analysts stated, “The market continues to stay at a turning point,” noting digital assets are moving along a line between risk-taking and risk-aversion. 

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Israel-Iran Crisis Takes Center Stage

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer emphasized that all G7 leaders are aligned in their goal to de-escalate the Middle East conflict. “The risk of escalation is obvious. Its implications go far beyond the region,” he said. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Germany is preparing a joint statement that will underscore: “Iran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons-capable material under any circumstances.”

Trump Pushes for Talks — And for Expansion

Donald Trump, arriving with a bold posture, called for immediate talks between Israel and Iran. “They should talk, and they should talk immediately,” he told reporters. Trump also reignited old debates, calling the removal of Russia from the group in 2014 a “mistake” and suggesting that China should be added to the G7. His focus, however, remained firmly on trade: “Our primary focus will be trade,” Trump asserted.

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Yet these statements contrast sharply with G7 principles. The U.S. president’s widespread tariffs — up to 25% on steel, aluminum, and autos — have frustrated allies like Japan, Mexico, and Canada. Many fear this protectionist approach undermines the cooperative spirit the G7 was built upon.

Trade Wars Cloud Diplomatic Efforts

While security concerns dominate headlines, Trump’s trade policy looms equally large. The administration’s unilateral tariffs have not only impacted allied economies but also strained trust. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney warned that the U.S. could no longer be viewed as a reliable partner. With no joint communiqué expected from the summit, it’s clear this year’s G7 lacks consensus — and unity.

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“Iran and Israel must and will make a deal, just like I made one between India and Pakistan… Likewise, there will be PEACE between Iran and Israel soon! Right now, many phone calls and meetings are taking place. I’m doing a lot, but I never get the credit I deserve, that’s fine, the PEOPLE understand. LET’S MAKE THE MIDDLE EAST GREAT AGAIN!”  

However, these remarks also led to new diplomatic tensions. While Israel wants direct U.S. intervention to stop Iran’s nuclear activities, the Trump administration currently does not support such intervention. Trump also sent strong messages to Iran, stating that any attack on U.S. interests would be met with “unprecedented force.”  

Trump’s Claims and Diplomatic Promises  

In an interview with ABC News, Trump stated, “We are not involved in the process right now. There’s a possibility we might be involved, but we’re not in it yet,” indicating that the U.S. is not directly involved in the tensions between Israel and Iran. On the other hand, Trump reiterated that he wants to make a nuclear deal with Iran.  

American and Iranian negotiators were planning to hold talks on Sunday in Oman as part of a peaceful solution for the nuclear program. However, due to preemptive strikes carried out by Israel, this critical negotiation was canceled.  

While evaluating the process regarding Iran, Trump said, “There is no specific deadline. However, the parties are continuing their talks. They want to make a deal. This may even accelerate the progress of the agreement.”  

These developments suggest that during the upcoming G7 Summit, European leaders will question Trump’s credibility regarding the peace efforts between Israel and Iran.  

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Five-Day Inflow Streak Signals Investor Confidence

Bitcoin ETFs posted five straight days of inflows starting June 9, with over $1.3 billion entering the market. According to Farside Investors, Friday alone saw $301 million in net inflows, signaling robust confidence in Bitcoin despite recent shocks.

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While the cryptocurrency briefly dropped 3% following Israel’s airstrikes on Iran, it bounced back quickly from $103,000 to hover around $105,000 — reflecting market resilience under pressure.

Falling Dollar Boosts Bitcoin’s Outlook

Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau emphasized the macroeconomic view: “It’s not geopolitics, but the U.S. dollar index (DXY) that truly drives Bitcoin. With DXY falling below 100 — a three-year low — Bitcoin stands to benefit.”

Still, the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, could trigger short-term price shocks across risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.

New Highs on the Horizon?

Despite global uncertainty, Bitcoin is trading just 6% below its all-time high of $112,000, reached on May 22. This resilience has analysts predicting that a breakout could be imminent.

As macroeconomic instability grows and trust in traditional finance weakens, capped-supply assets like Bitcoin are becoming increasingly attractive to both retail and institutional investors.

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Index Holds Firm Amid Crisis

On Sunday, the index posted a score of 60, maintaining its position in the greed zone. This came after Bitcoin dropped 2.8% to $103,000, while Ethereum saw a sharper decline of over 10% during the same period.

Interestingly, the index had registered a much higher 71 just days earlier. Despite the price pullbacks, investor sentiment remains resilient — for now.

Traders Watch Key Support Levels

Crypto analyst Za commented that Bitcoin appears “unbothered” by the geopolitical situation. With $1.74 billion in long positions at stake if the $100,000 psychological level is broken, the coming days will be critical.

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Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETF products saw $1.37 billion in inflows during the past week. In contrast, spot Ethereum ETF funds ended a 19-day inflow streak with $2.1 million in outflows.

Will History Repeat Itself?

In April 2024, following Iran’s direct missile strike on Israel, Bitcoin dropped 8.4%, and the index fell from “Greed” to “Fear” within weeks. If history is any guide, we could see a similar pattern emerge if geopolitical uncertainty persists.

The market’s current resilience may be tested further. Investors are watching closely to see whether confidence can hold — or if fear will take over again.

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Following the announcement of the attacks, new predictions about Iran’s likelihood of retaliation rapidly surged on the platform. Polymarket data calculated only a 12% chance that the conflict would de-escalate by the following Friday (June 20, 2025). Even more striking were the bets on Iran declaring war on Israel within the same time frame, which had reached a notably high level of 55% by early Friday. 

And indeed, the events matched the predictions exactly. Israeli warplanes struck numerous military targets inside Iran, including nuclear facilities such as the Natanz nuclear site. Approximately 100 targets were hit using at least 330 munitions, and several high-ranking Iranian commanders were killed. However, methodological limitations (information access, volume, manipulation) should not be ignored. Founded in 2020, the platform creates “Yes/No” markets on many topics including political events, wars, and the economy. Users trade on these markets using USDC. 

Polymarket: A Barometer for Global Events 

• Conflict de-escalation chance 12%: The market views the likelihood of tension easing next week as low. 
• Iran’s war declaration risk down to 33%: Although the risk rose in the initial critical hours, the market now sees a large military move by Iran in the short term as unlikely. 
• Israel’s war declaration chance 25%: This indicates the market considers Israel’s imminent war declaration possible but with low probability. 

Prediction markets like Polymarket serve as an interesting barometer reflecting collective expectations about global events’ outcomes. Betting trends in the Israel-Iran tension not only mirror potential military actions but also reveal perceptions about the impact of such events on international relations and regional stability. 

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