During the same period, continuing claims showed a notable increase. For the week ending June 14, claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021. Expectations were around 1.950 million.

Economic Contraction Exceeds Expectations

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.5% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2024. Economists had forecasted a 0.2% decline. This marks a sharp pullback compared to the 2.4% growth recorded in the last quarter of 2023.

Layoffs on the Rise, Hiring Remains Weak

Although initial jobless claims have decreased in the short term, broader data indicates an increase in layoffs. With the start of summer holidays and technical factors, non-teaching staff in some states are eligible to file for unemployment, contributing to the rise.

Economists also highlight that growing uncertainties and President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have made it difficult for companies to plan ahead, leading many firms to take a cautious approach toward hiring.

Could the Federal Reserve Cut Rates This Fall?

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady last week, keeping the benchmark rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that they are waiting to see more clarity on external inflation pressures before considering any rate cuts. The likelihood of a rate cut this fall appears to be increasing.

Unemployment Rate May Rise

The rise in continuing claims suggests that the unemployment rate could climb from 4.2% in May to 4.3% in June. A recent Conference Board survey showed the share of consumers who believe jobs are “plentiful” dropped to its lowest level in over four years.

Lou Crandall, Chief Economist at Wrightson ICAP, commented, “The rising volume of layoffs is likely to translate into an increase of at least one-tenth of a percent in the national jobless rate in the June employment report.”

U.S. Stock Markets Close Higher

Additionally,  U.S. stock markets in positive territory. The Dow Jones rose by 0.24%, the S&P 500 by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq by 0.45%. This uptick was supported by easing tensions in the Middle East and Powell’s dovish tone on potential interest rate cuts, which sparked short-term optimism in the markets.

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The post Is a Rate Cut Possible This Fall? How About U.S. Economic Data? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Renowned investor Arthur Hayes has warned that the cryptocurrency market could experience a significant downturn following Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Hayes stated that after Trump officially takes office on January 20, markets could see “sharp and painful” declines.

He also emphasized that while the crypto community has high expectations from Trump, it is unrealistic to expect these expectations to be met in the short term.

Hayes: The Market Will Face Reality!

Hayes believes that the short-term expectations of the crypto world regarding Trump are unlikely to materialize. He predicts that once it becomes clear that these expectations will not be met immediately, the market will enter a downtrend. He stated:

“The market will start to face reality. If it becomes evident that Trump will need at least a year to implement crypto-friendly changes, everyone will wake up. Therefore, I expect declines in both cryptocurrencies and stocks that have surged with Trump’s rise.”

Hayes also added that resolving global and domestic issues in the U.S. could take at least a decade:

“Many people buying in with short-term expectations will later experience deep regrets,” he said.

Are Hayes’ Predictions Accurate?

Over the past two years, many of Hayes’ predictions—particularly regarding the crypto market—have not materialized, and some have been proven incorrect.

Hayes had long anticipated a significant surge in altcoins, yet these predictions have not come true. In the summer of 2023, he decided to sell his entire altcoin portfolio, believing that the Israel-Iran conflict would escalate and geopolitical events would become more complex.

This decision sparked significant curiosity among investors, as Hayes openly expressed his loss of confidence in altcoins. However, shortly after, he reversed his decision and continued making altcoin recommendations.

Doubts Surround Hayes’ Predictions in the Investment Community

While serious doubts have been raised about Arthur Hayes’ market predictions within the investment community, some view his decision to re-enter the market as a positive development.

Hayes acknowledged in a blog post that many of his forecasts had failed to materialize, admitting that this left him with significant regret. It was almost a confession piece.

In this post, he emphasized that he has learned from his incorrect predictions and risky investment decisions, promising to adopt a more cautious approach moving forward.

Hayes’ Aethir Investment

Additionally, a major setback affected the portfolio of Maelström, the family office managed by Hayes.

Hayes suffered significant losses in his investment in the Aethir (ATH) project.

Initially seen as a promising investment opportunity, Aethir failed to meet expectations.

Due to the project’s underperformance and unfavorable market conditions, Hayes decided to sell all his holdings in Aethir.

This decision, regarded as one of Hayes’ biggest investment mistakes in recent years, made waves in the crypto world.

These events have led to a decline in confidence in Hayes’ market predictions.

However, despite all these setbacks, he continues to make a comeback and offer investment advice, making him both a subject of criticism and a closely watched figure in the crypto community.

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