FED Lorie Logan: “Conditions Do Not Support a Cut in December”

Lorie Logan, known for her hawkish stance, made it clear that she does not support a rate cut at the upcoming meeting. Logan had already opposed a reduction in October, citing persistent inflation risks, and her latest comments reaffirm that stance.

According to Logan, recent data does not provide convincing evidence that inflation is easing fast enough. She emphasized that price pressures remain above target and that the downward trajectory is not yet strong or sustained.

Logan stated:

“When I look toward the December meeting, I would need to see strong evidence that inflation is falling faster than expected or that the labor market is cooling more significantly than the gradual slowdown we have observed. Without that, it is difficult to support another rate cut.”

FED Stephen Miran: “Recent Data Supports a More Dovish Approach”

In contrast, Fed official Stephen Miran argues that the economic indicators since September have shifted in favor of easing monetary policy. Miran believes the data now presents a compelling case for a more accommodative stance.

He pointed out that inflation has performed better than anticipated and that the labor market has weakened in a noticeable way. For Miran, these factors suggest that a tighter policy posture is no longer necessary.

“All the data we have received supports a more dovish view. Under these conditions, we should be moving toward easing rather than the opposite,” he said.

CME FedWatch Data: Market Expectations Tilt Slightly Toward a Hold

The latest CME FedWatch Tool projections illustrate how traders are pricing in the upcoming decision. With 25 days remaining until the December 10 FOMC meeting, probabilities stand as follows:

• 350–375 bps: 44.4%

• 375–400 bps (no change): 55.6%

• 400–425 bps: 0%

These figures indicate that markets currently see a hold as the most likely outcome.

As the meeting approaches, the divergence between Logan and Miran will continue to shape market sentiment, signaling that the Fed’s internal debate may be far from settled.

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U.S. CPI Data Released! What’s The Data and Expectations?

The U.S. Annual Consumer Price Index for July 2025 came in at 2.7%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.8%. The previous month’s reading was also at 2.7%.

Market and Interest Rate Cut Expectations

The U.S. Annual Consumer Price Index coming in below expectations could influence the Fed’s potential interest rate cut decisions. Inflation moving closer to the target is viewed as a positive development, especially for bitcoin and other altcoin markets.

Investors will continue to closely monitor upcoming economic data releases and central bank announcements.

This content does not constitute investment advice. Markets carry a high level of risk, and it is important to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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Increase in Initial Jobless Claims

Initial unemployment benefit claims in the U.S. were announced at 226,000 last week. Market expectations were around 221,000. The previous week’s figure was recorded as 219,000. The announced data slightly exceeded forecasts, indicating a limited slowdown in the labor market.

Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims

On the other hand, continuing jobless claims also showed an increase. According to the latest data, these claims reached 1.974 million. Expectations were 1.950 million, while the previous data was announced as 1.936 million. This rise suggests that recovery in the employment market may be slowing.

Market Reaction and Possible Implications

This increase in claims may affect expectations regarding FED policies and the macroeconomic outlook. If this trend continues, market volatility may increase in the short term. Especially in assets like gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other altcoins, the search for direction may accelerate.

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Fed’s Interest Rate Cuts Outlook and Economic Conditions

• The current Fed funds rate stands at 4.33%.

• Investors are expecting two rate cuts by the end of 2025.

• The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September has climbed to 75%.

• Fed official Bowman noted that gradual policy adjustments would continue in order to support the labor market.

At its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. Unlike previous meetings, however, the decision was not unanimous. Two of the 12 FOMC members voted in favor of a 0.25% rate cut. This split decision, along with the tone of the official statement, is being interpreted as a strong signal that a rate cut may come as early as September.

FOMC Projections and Market Expectations

The FOMC’s June projections had already indicated the possibility of two rate cuts before the end of 2025. However, with only three meetings left on the calendar, futures markets have not fully reflected this scenario yet, pricing in only about a 40% chance. On the other hand, some analysts suggest the likelihood is closer to 66%, signaling a solid—but not guaranteed—possibility.

Powell’s Hawkish Messaging

One of the factors reducing expectations of a September rate cut is Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone during his press conference. Powell emphasized that no decision has yet been made for the September meeting. Still, his strong focus on ongoing inflation risks, while downplaying downside risks to growth and the labor market, created a more cautious market sentiment.

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