Trump’s Crypto-Friendly Approach

If Donald Trump is re-elected, some positive policies for the crypto sector are expected to emerge. Specifically, the potential removal of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and increased incentives for Bitcoin mining are viewed positively for the market. Trump has even shown his support for the industry by accepting crypto donations for his campaign.

Three Visible Threats

Coin Center warns that the current regulatory environment in the US could hinder innovation. Three main threats are highlighted:

• Section 6050I and Tax Reporting: This regulation, requiring reporting of profits over $10,000 to the IRS, is seen as a major obstacle for crypto investors.
• Tornado Cash Sanctions: Sanctions against crypto mixers like Tornado Cash threaten the future of unregulated services.
• AML Policies: Stricter anti-money laundering policies could create issues regarding user privacy and access to services.

Long-Term Risks of Crypto Policies

Despite Trump’s crypto-friendly stance, the broader impact of these regulations is debated. Some analysts believe such policies could provide short-term gains for investors but could push innovation outside the US. If Kamala Harris is elected, it’s likely that Biden’s strict regulatory approach would continue, although there may be a more balanced path due to California’s tech background.

Van Valkenburgh argues that the sector’s sanctions have been insufficient in preventing criminal activities, suggesting that regulations need to be more user-friendly and effective. Moreover, investors are advised to remain cautious about potential regulatory changes and market fluctuations.

The 2024 elections present new opportunities and risks for the crypto market. While Trump’s policies may boost market values in the short term, a stricter regulatory framework could lead to negative consequences in the long term. In this process, it is crucial for investors and developers to closely monitor changes in the legal framework.

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US Election Date

The US presidential elections are held every four years on the first Tuesday of November. The 2024 elections will also be held on Tuesday, November 5. Voters will choose between the incumbent president and the presidential candidates to determine the leader of the country.

Candidates and Parties

In these elections, the two major political parties, Democrats and Republicans, are competing with two prominent candidates. The Democratic Party’s candidate is incumbent President Joe Biden, but there has been a change to Kamala Harris as the election approaches, and the Republican Party’s candidate is Donald Trump.

Election Process and Campaigns

The election process in the USA begins with a long process of determining the candidate. Both the Democratic and Republican Party hold primaries, and at the end of this process, the official presidential candidate of each party is determined. Presidential candidates try to win votes by making various promises to the public during the election campaigns. The main topics of the campaigns focus on important issues such as the economy, health, immigration, education and foreign policy. This year, especially issues such as inflation, unemployment rates, environmental policies and international relations are of great interest to the voters.

Electoral System: Electoral College

In the US presidential elections, the president is not elected by direct vote. The election is carried out with a system called the “Electoral College”. Each state has a delegate count determined by its population, and when candidates receive the most votes in a state, they win all the delegates of that state. It is necessary to win at least 270 of the 538 delegates for the presidency. This system encourages candidates to collect votes not only in large states but also throughout the country.

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The Importance and Impact of Elections

The US presidential elections not only affect the domestic politics of the US, but also global politics and the economy. Since the US is one of the largest economies in the world, the presidential election also affects world markets, international diplomacy and security relations. For this reason, the 2024 elections are being followed with curiosity around the world.

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Several factors support Bitcoin‘s potential rise, particularly the anticipated interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The broader market expects a 25 basis point cut on November 7, which would lower rates to the 4.5% to 4.75% range, reflecting a need for adjustments to stabilize economic growth,” said Bitget Research Chief Analyst Ryan Lee.

U.S. Election Polls May Be One of the Factors Supporting Bitcoin’s Rise

Polls related to the upcoming U.S. presidential election are emerging as a factor supporting bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market. In these polls, current Vice President Kamala Harris and crypto advocate Donald Trump are locked in tight races across several key states. On the events trading platform Polymarket, former president and crypto entrepreneur Trump is strongly favored to win.

Analysts suggest that such polling data could boost positive expectations for digital assets like Bitcoin. A scenario where crypto-supportive candidates gain traction might create new opportunities for digital assets in terms of regulation and growth.

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Cryptocurrency Regulation and Harris’ New Steps

According to information obtained by Bloomberg, Harris noticed that 20% of African-Americans have invested in crypto or have invested in this area in the past. In this direction, Harris promises to bring clearer and more transparent regulatory rules to cryptocurrencies. This move aims to ensure that investors in the crypto world can trade in a safer environment.

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Increase in Support for Trump

Behind these new steps by Kamala Harris lies the increase in support for Trump among African Americans. According to a poll dated October 12, 15% of blacks stated that they were considering voting for Trump. This rate was around 9% in the 2020 elections, which caused Harris to focus more on this group of voters.

Trump Leads in Cryptocurrency-Based Betting Sites

Finally, Trump continues to have a 9% lead in Polymarket, which is a cryptocurrency-based betting site, and a 7% lead in Kalshi. If Kamala Harris is elected president, she will be the first black and Asian female president of the United States. However, it is clear that she needs to offer more promises and support in order to win the votes of blacks who are turning to Trump.

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This shift comes despite Harris being favored by a 72% margin to win the popular vote. While Trump is gaining momentum on Polymarket, CNBC’s Jim Cramer has predicted that Harris will win, though this has sparked reactions tied to the “inverse Cramer effect,” where Cramer’s predictions are often seen as having the opposite outcome.

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Trump’s recent moves to appeal to the crypto community, including making a public Bitcoin purchase and launching a decentralized finance project, have garnered mixed reactions. Some believe this could hurt his campaign if the project faces security issues, while others think the election results will not significantly impact the price or adoption of cryptocurrencies. Dan Tapiero of 10T Holdings, for example, has predicted that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 regardless of the election’s outcome.

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Trump’s chances of winning the US presidential election have increased significantly after an investor known by the username Fredi9999 bought millions of shares on the platform. Earlier this week, Fredi9999 had around 7 million shares predicting Trump’s victory, while that number has now reached 11 million. According to Polymarket data, this investor has bought hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of shares in the last hour, betting on Trump’s victory.

The total trading volume for the election result between Trump and Harris has already exceeded $1.6 billion. For comparison, only $11 million worth of transactions were made on Polymarket in the 2020 US presidential election.

Trump’s lead widened significantly after Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that he found Polymarket more accurate than traditional polls. At the beginning of the week, Trump’s probability of winning was 50.6 percent, while Harris’ was 48.4 percent. This increase coincides with Musk’s statement and the record trading volume on Polymarket.

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Polymarket reached record levels in many areas such as trading volume, number of active traders and new markets in September. The platform raised $45 million in a Series B investment round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Important names such as Vitalik Buterin and Dragonfly, founders of Ethereum, also participated in this round.

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“We will invest in biomanfecting and aerospace, remain dominant in AI and quantum computing, blockchain, and other emerging technologies.”

This represents her first public opinion on cryptocurrencies, in line with her Republican competitor Donald Trump, who has freely backed the sector. In an 82-page economic plan, Harris restated her stance on cryptocurrencies: her government will “encourage innovative technologies like artificial intelligence and digital assets while protecting consumers and investors.”

Harris vs. Trump on Crypto

Harris’s latest remarks have generated curiosity since experts project conflicting results for cryptocurrencies depending on the 2024 election. VanEck analysts stated in a Sept. 19 research note a Harris victory may hasten structural improvements benefiting Bitcoin. Conversely, Trump, a strong supporter of crypto sector deregulating, is considered as more positive for the sector.

Analysts also highlight the continuous financial difficulties facing the United States, including growing national debt, which might devaluate the US dollar—a situation in which Bitcoin has always performed rather well.

Election Impact on Bitcoin

While a Harris win may see Bitcoin tumble to $30,000, Bernstein analysts estimated that a Trump triumph might drive Bitcoin to $90,000 by year’s end. With crypto firms and investors keenly observing both contenders, the election is expected to have a major impact on market mood.

FiveThirtyEight reports that as of Sept. 25, Harris and Trump are practically equal in national surveys; Harris holds a little lead of 2.5 percentage points. The result of this election might be quite important in determining how U.S. cryptocurrency control is shaped going forward.

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Harris underlined her concept of a “safe business environment with consistent and clear rules of the road.” She underlined vital areas for investment like semiconductors, renewable energy, and other sectors vital to the future of the nation and promised to remove bureaucratic inefficiencies.

Harris is framing her campaign differently than her Democratic predecessor, President Joe Biden, whose strategy has occasionally been seen as bad for the sector as this is the first time she has openly addressed cryptocurrency. Harris’s comment marks a turning point in the campaign as Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, actively targets the crypto industry.

Following the collapse of several cryptocurrency companies, Harris’s top campaign adviser, Brian Nelson, last month made hints implying she would back pro-crypto laws stressing the need of regulatory stability.

The policy chief for Coinbase Faryar Shirzad praised Harris’s comments as a “constructive statement.” Not as progressive as Trump’s pro-crypto policies, Shirzad pointed out the significance of recognizing digital asset innovation alongside artificial intelligence.

Other corporate leaders, such as Variant’s legal officer Jake Chervinsky and Paradigm’s Alexander Grieve, expressed cautious optimism while highlighting Harris’s remarks as forward. Chervinsky advised, meantime, that words like “protecting our consumers and investors” could be interpreted under the guise of regulation as acts negative for the sector.

Crypto has become a crucial campaign issue as companies like Coinbase, Ripple, and Gemini search power as the industry pumps millions of dollars into the next November election. While still in office, Trump has welcomed the business, promising to be a “crypto president” and to fire Gary Gensler, the SEC Chair whose agency has aggressively targeted crypto companies.

According to Five Thirty Eight data, Harris leads Trump by 2.9% in national polls as of September 22.

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Leading the pace with an estimated 50% chance of winning and a bet exceeding $127 million, U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris follows. At 49% winning chances and an almost $144 million bet, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump finishes in second. Originally leading Harris in the Polymarket bet, Trump had been leading Harris backwards on Aug. 12 when the winner’s prediction market was $572 million.

This Might Interest You: Kamala Harris Tied with Trump on Polymarket After Debate

Beyond the contenders, Polymarket prediction markets concentrate on various facets of the 2024 presidential contest, including the possibility of Trump uttering “crypto” or other phrases in the discussion between him and Harris. To be sure, neither of the candidates brought up cryptocurrencies at the Sept. 10 Philadelphia debate.

Polymarket’s meteoric rise in the last four months has mostly been driven by the 2024 presidential contest. According to The Block’s Data Dashboard, August saw Polymarket’s highest-ever number of active traders and monthly volume—63,6200 and $472.84 million, respectively. As of Sept. 13, the platform’s total volume comes out to be $1.75 billion.

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Before the election, Tuesday night witnessed the first and most likely last presidential discussion between Harris and Trump, whereby several recurring issues, including the war in Gaza and abortion rights, were debated, with no reference to cryptocurrency. Polls, which are yet unpublished, show that Polymarket’s beters on Harris had a 94% chance of winning tonight’s debate.

On Polymarket, Harris’s chances of winning the presidential contest jumped from 46% Monday night to 49%; Trump’s chances dropped from 52% to 49%. While Harris has begun interacting with the crypto space, Trump has been outspoken in voicing pro-crypto viewpoints; she has not yet taken a firm position on the sector.

Bitcoin sank to lows of roughly $56,700 throughout the discussion, but momentarily rose above the $58,000 mark and stayed at higher levels in the hours preceding the debate. Right now, it trades for $56,503.

Head of APAC business development of cryptocurrency market maker Keyrock Justin d’Anethan claimed that as the argument progressed, bitcoin was more of a dispassionate observer. “The crypto market is watching but not reacting—at least, not yet. Bitcoin continues to behave like any other risk asset, moving in tandem with tech stocks and growth equities, searching for direction amidst a cocktail of inflation fears, rate uncertainty, and global political turbulence.”

“The debate itself is surely a momentous event that shapes the tone for the probably conflict between two different visions of America’s future,” d’Anethan said. “For bitcoin, though, it will need something more concrete. As things stand, bitcoin seems to be waiting for a catalyst—a jolt from either the macroeconomic front, like an unexpected change in Fed policy, or something seismic from the political arena, such as a scandal or a surprising turn in election polling.”

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