Prediction Markets: Hassett Far Ahead

In recent days, there has been significant activity on global prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. According to the data:

• Hassett: 76%
• Kevin Warsh: 14%
• Christopher Waller: 10%

Hassett’s rise is especially notable. Hassett, who served as Director of the National Economic Council during the Trump administration, has long been considered a favorite. The main reason he is viewed as “crypto-friendly” in the crypto world is his role on Coinbase’s advisory council and the fact that he is known to hold a substantial stake in the exchange.

The assessment from Caitlin Long, CEO of Wyoming-based Custodia Bank, resonated within the crypto community:
“If Hassett really becomes Fed Chair, the influence of anti-crypto figures within the institution will be significantly reduced. We would see major changes at the Fed.”

A New Era in Crypto Policy?

Hassett’s rise brings back the possibility of a softening in the Fed’s approach to crypto assets. However, past examples show the importance of managing expectations. As remembered, Gary Gensler raised optimism when he arrived at the SEC with blockchain expertise, yet he maintained strict regulatory policies throughout his tenure.

If Hassett is chosen, there is no definitive picture that the Fed will fully open the door to crypto. However, compared to the current Fed structure, a more “experimental” stance and a more open approach to bank-crypto integration appear more likely.

Supervision Debates Continue Inside the Fed

While the new chair discussions continue, significant disagreements regarding supervisory and oversight mechanisms are emerging within the Fed. The institution’s recently announced “risk-focused supervision” approach has been viewed as too lenient by some internal figures. For this reason, it is clear that the new chair will take over a Fed already in the midst of a shift.

When Will the Announcement Come?

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently stated, “It is highly likely that Trump will announce the new Fed Chair before Christmas,” increasing expectations even further.

All eyes are now on Washington. Hassett’s rising probability is being followed with great interest, especially by crypto investors and industry participants. In the coming weeks, we may witness critical developments that will directly shape the future of U.S. monetary policy and its relationship with crypto.

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This statement is interpreted as a significant signal that the government may move beyond support provided through tax obligations and aim for returns through investments.

Powell Opens the Door to a Rate Cut!

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered new assessments of the economy at the Jackson Hole meeting of economists. Highlighting the risks in a weakening labor market, he suggested that a rate cut could be considered; however, he also pointed out that inflation still has the potential to rise.

You may also be interested in this article: BNB Treasury’s Big Move: Targeting a $1 Billion Fund!

Following these developments, markets around the world experienced volatility:

• Barclays and BNP Paribas began forecasting that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025. They also noted that two separate cuts could take place within the year.
• Stock markets reflected a positive mood. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices rose; bond yields declined. Small-cap stocks particularly stood out.
• Market probability rose to 87–90%, meaning the September rate cut has become largely “priced in.”

In his speech, Powell strongly emphasized that the Fed’s decisions would be entirely data-driven and that it would maintain its independence.

Kevin Hassett’s statement that the government may take stakes in companies signals a new era in economic policy that is centralized and investment-oriented. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell appears ready to take steps toward flexibility in interest rates while remaining committed to the Fed’s independence and data-driven decision-making.

When these two developments are evaluated together, it becomes clear that a new search for balance between public policy and monetary policy is underway. Upcoming economic data in the coming weeks will reveal this balance more clearly.

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Hassett’s Message on Rate Cuts Is Clear

Kevin Hassett’s comments represent an alternative economic perspective to the Fed’s current policy stance. According to Hassett:

• Inflation is under control.

• The labor market remains strong.

• Conditions are suitable for a rate cut.

He believes that the Fed should take more decisive steps, especially considering global economic trends.

Hassett: “Fed official Waller and Trump are right about interest rates. There is no reason why the Fed shouldn’t cut rates.”

Why Is Powell Holding Back?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, however, has a different outlook. Powell warns that external factors such as rising oil prices and new tariffs could drive inflation higher in the near future. In particular, the surge in energy prices is believed to put upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Because of these concerns, the Fed is taking a cautious stance toward a potential rate cut in September. However, market expectations differ: According to CME Group data, investors see a 76% probability of a rate cut in September.

Global Trend: Other Central Banks Have Started Cutting Rates

Another point supporting Hassett’s view is the global approach of other central banks. Major institutions like the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) have already begun reducing interest rates.

If the U.S. lags behind this trend, the dollar could strengthen further, which might harm the competitiveness of U.S. exporters. This strengthens Hassett’s message: “Now is the time to act.”

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Will Donald Trump Delay Tariffs?

President Donald Trump’s tariff policies continue to shake global markets. Earlier today, Trump’s economic adviser Kevin Hassett made a statement that drew significant attention. According to Hassett, Trump is considering suspending tariffs for 90 days on all countries except China. This news briefly eased market tensions—but confusion quickly followed.

According to CNBC, sources within the White House said they were completely unaware of any such consideration. The fact that top officials had no knowledge of this plan sparked speculation of a communication gap within the administration. Was Hassett expressing a personal opinion, or was it an early leak of an upcoming policy change?

The uncertainty didn’t last long. In a last-minute official statement, the White House denied the 90-day suspension, calling it “fake news.” With this clarification, it became clear that there are currently no plans to delay tariffs.

These mixed signals have only added to the pressure on the markets. Recently, the S&P 500 experienced sharp declines, and growing investor anxiety has made every statement from the administration even more impactful. With high-profile critics like Elon Musk and Bill Ackman openly opposing the tariffs, any shift in trade policy could significantly influence market sentiment.

In conclusion, for now, the Trump administration has no intention of pausing tariffs. However, the conflicting messages and volatile market conditions suggest that this topic could resurface in the near future.

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