Bitcoin Demand Persists Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

Rising geopolitical tensions in global markets have pushed investors toward safe-haven assets, with gold and silver prices hitting consecutive record highs. Despite this environment, Ki Young Ju emphasizes that institutional Bitcoin purchases are continuing steadily rather than weakening. Experts suggest that Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative has solidified its role in institutional portfolios.

Institutional Wallets Added 577,000 BTC in the Past Year

According to Ki Young Ju, U.S.-based institutional wallets, each holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, have shown particularly significant accumulation. Miners and crypto exchanges are not included in this group, while institutional ETF purchases are included in the calculation.

Ki Young Ju explained:

“Institutional purchases of Bitcoin remain strong. U.S.-based institutional wallets hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Miners and exchanges are not included, but ETF purchases are. Since last year, approximately 577,000 BTC, worth about $53 billion, has been added to these wallets. Purchases are still ongoing.”

This indicates that institutional investors do not see short-term price volatility as a significant risk and view Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset.

Crypto Treasury Companies Also Continue Accumulating

Institutional purchases are not limited to funds and ETFs. Crypto treasury companies are also accumulating Bitcoin, albeit with a more cautious, long-term strategy. Led by Strategy, these companies have acquired around 260,000 BTC since July to strengthen their balance sheets. This demonstrates that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a strategic reserve asset, not just a speculative investment, for companies.

According to Glassnode, the total Bitcoin held by these crypto treasury companies now exceeds 1.1 million BTC. This shows that a significant portion of Bitcoin supply is locked up by long-term investors. Analysts note that this could limit the amount of BTC available for circulation, helping maintain more controlled selling pressure during volatile periods.

Analysis

CryptoQuant’s data and Ki Young Ju’s statements indicate that institutional demand for Bitcoin remains steady despite overall market fluctuations. In an environment of rising geopolitical risks and ongoing uncertainty in traditional markets, the continued accumulation of Bitcoin by institutional investors serves as an important indicator for medium- and long-term price dynamics.

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Bitcoin ETFs Still Banned, Yet Demand Remains High

Currently, spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional crypto investments are not legal in South Korea. This means that the entire trading volume comes from retail investors. Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, stated that all three major candidates support Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investments.

All three major South Korean presidential candidates support #Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investment.

Currently, Bitcoin ETFs and institutional investments are banned in Korea. 100% volume comes from retail. pic.twitter.com/hL6cKci5VK

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 14, 2025

New Promises from the Democratic Party

On May 6, Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung promised new regulations aimed at legalizing spot crypto ETFs, reducing transaction fees, and creating a safe investment environment for young people to plan their future. However, the party had made similar promises during its previous election campaign, but no concrete progress was achieved.

Promises Made, but Past Actions Raise Doubts

While the candidates’ crypto-friendly approaches raise expectations for expanding the legal framework of digital assets in the country, experts warn of past experiences. Blockchain advisor Anndy Lian noted that the candidates’ positions resemble recent developments in Hong Kong but emphasized that success depends on various factors:

“A pro-crypto president could initiate a reform process aligned with global trends, like in the US, where Bitcoin ETFs have seen billions in net inflows. But similar promises were made in the past, without real action.”

Lian also reminded that the People Power Party, which came to power in 2022, had pledged to lift the ETF ban and revise the controversial “one exchange – one bank” rule. However, these goals were not realized before President Yoon’s impeachment.

Hong Kong’s ETFs Disappointed Expectations

Meanwhile, Bitcoin and Ethereum-based ETFs, which began trading in Hong Kong on April 30, 2024, fell short of expectations with lower trading volumes compared to their US counterparts. This suggests that the success of similar products in South Korea would depend not only on regulation but also on investor interest and market conditions.

The steps to be taken in South Korea could have an impact not just regionally, but globally. However, true reforms require more than political promises.

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Why Did Bitcoin Bull Expectations Change? 

Bitcoin’s price movements are generally tied to macroeconomic factors and investor behavior. The CryptoQuant CEO stated that he did not sufficiently consider these factors in his analyses. In particular, interest rates and global economic uncertainties impacted Bitcoin’s performance. This situation has led market analysts to adopt a more cautious approach. 

Ju explained, “Of course, the recent price movement is extremely bullish, but I’m talking about the profit-taking cycle.” 

What is CryptoQuant’s New Strategy? 

Ki Young Ju admitted his mistake and announced that he would adopt a new approach. He will now focus on more data-driven analyses. Additionally, he warned investors about short-term fluctuations. This strategy maintains confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential. 

“Two months ago, I said the bull market was over, but that prediction was wrong. 

“Now, instead of worrying about old whales selling, it’s more important to focus on how much new liquidity is coming from institutions and ETFs, as this new inflow can offset even strong whale selling,” he said. 

Two months ago, I said the bull cycle was over, but I was wrong. #Bitcoin selling pressure is easing, and massive inflows are coming through ETFs.

In the past, the Bitcoin market was pretty simple. The main players were old whales, miners, and new retail investors, basically… pic.twitter.com/oN4n6vNc0s

— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 9, 2025

The Bitcoin market still has a volatile structure. Experts recommend conducting thorough research before investing. CryptoQuant’s updated reports can serve as a guide in this process. However, the risks in the market should not be ignored. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $103,018.24. 

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju’s confession has reshaped Bitcoin bull cycle expectations. Therefore, it is critical for investors to follow updated analyses. Additionally, market uncertainties require strategic decision-making. 

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“Trust Data, Not Noise”

Onchained’s March 22 market report warns investors to be cautious:

“Trust data, not noise. Verify sources and cross-check onchain metrics.”

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

For instance, some narratives claim that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are capitulating. However, Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) data indicates no meaningful selling pressure from these holders. Instead, structural demand continues to outpace supply.

4-Year Cycle Theory Under Fire

The long-debated Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory is now being questioned. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe claims, “We can erase the entire 4-year cycle theory; Altcoins are in a longer cycle.”

Meanwhile, Bitwise Invest CIO Matt Hougan adds, “The traditional four-year cycle is over. Changes in DC signal a new decade-long cycle for crypto.”

Is the Bitcoin Bull Market Over?

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes so. In a March 17 post, he said, “Bitcoin bull cycle is over. Expect 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Ju warns that onchain metrics point to a bear market, with fresh liquidity drying up and new whales selling Bitcoin at lower prices.

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Several Bitcoin on-chain cyclical indicators that were formerly at the borderline have now moved back to indicate a bull market, said CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju. “Bitcoin is still in a bull market” he said in an August 9 X post. Pseudonymous crypto trader PlanB, who also emphasized that the current decline offered just a temporary price reduction on Bitcoin, reiterated this view.

On August 5—a day known as “Crypto Black Monday“—the price of Bitcoin had dropped to $49,751. This represented its first plunge below $50,000 since February, which caused the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator to exhibit negative signs for the first time since January 2023, just after the FTX crash. But Bitcoin has subsequently recovered, trading back over the crucial $60,000 mark at $60,732 at the time of publishing.

Analysts Divided on Bitcoin’s Future Price Action

Although some traders believe the recent price decline could have been a bear trap based on the fast rebound, others remain wary. Having dropped to a “Extreme Fear” score of 17 on August 6, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has subsequently recovered to a “Neutral” level of 48, therefore signaling a change in market mood.

Though the market cycle indicator shows positive indications, other observers think Bitcoin’s price may drop further more before the next bull run. Head of research Markus Thielen of Xx Research said on August 7 that when Bitcoin prices drop below the low $40,000s, the best moment to begin the next bull market.

In an August 6 study, Cathie Wood’s investment company Ark Invest also stressed in the most important price supports of Bitcoin: $52,000 and $46,000. Veteran trader Peter Brandt also said that the present fall in Bitcoin reminds one of the 2015–2017 halving bull market cycle, which was followed by a notable bull run.

Although the market cycle indicator shows a more positive picture, the divergent opinions among experts emphasize the uncertainty about the short-term price behavior of Bitcoin.

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In his latest analysis, Ju highlighted a notable increase in limit buy orders for altcoins, indicating the construction of substantial buy walls.

“Whales are gearing up for the next altcoin rally,” Ju stated. “The surge in limit buy orders for altcoins outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum suggests that strong buy walls are being built.”

Ju further explained the technical indicators behind this metric, which may not be fully understood by all market participants. He distinguished between market orders and limit orders, explaining that while market orders create ‘buy volume’, limit orders contribute to ‘quote volume’.

“Whales and institutions, such as market makers and brokerages, typically use limit orders for large transactions to prevent slippage,” Ju explained. “The indicator is calculated by taking the cumulative sum of the difference between the buy and sell quote volumes using a 1-year moving window. An upward trend indicates increasing buy quote volume and stronger buy walls.”

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The sale, which was worth approximately $67.5 million at the time, was likely made to cover expenses, according to Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of on-chain data and analytics platform CryptoQuant.

The sale is the largest OTC (over-the-counter) trade volume recorded since late March.

Bitcoin miners have been struggling since the halving event on April 20, which cut the block reward in half, causing production costs to double. Marathon is known for holding a large portion of its Bitcoin and is not expected to make sales other than to cover expenses.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,479, according to CoinGecko data.

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CryptoQuant CEO Believes Bull Season in 2024

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