Historic Increase in Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply  

On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reported that long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have increased their supply by 800,000 BTC over the last 30 days. This marks the largest recorded increase in Bitcoin history. LTH refers to investors who hold their BTC for at least six months. This surge indicates high confidence in the market.  

According to CryptoQuant data, a 750,000 BTC increase has only happened six times. The most recent two occurrences were in July 2021 and September 2024—both just before significant price surges.  

Analyst Darkfost stated that this is a signal that should not be ignored. Most coins were purchased in the $95,000–$107,000 range, which creates a strong support level for the price.  

“This is definitely a strong signal that should be included in any strategy.”  

Critical Support for Bitcoin: $93,000 Level  

Short-term holders (STH), who typically hold BTC for less than six months, have a cost basis just below $100,000. Glassnode emphasized that the $93,000–$98,000 range is a critical support zone. According to analysts, if BTC remains within this range, the bullish market structure will be maintained. However, if this level is broken, selling pressure could increase. Following the recent pullback, the price dropped to as low as $98,000. Despite this, the strong position of long-term holders shows the market remains resilient.  

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On average, 566 BTC per day fall into this “ancient supply” category, while current daily BTC production remains around 450 coins. This development marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that long-term held coins are growing faster than new supply. This data stands out as a significant factor reinforcing Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative. 

Fidelity analyst Zack Wainwright said, “The strong conviction of ultra-long-term investors is increasingly influential on the Bitcoin ecosystem.” According to the report, ancient supply is increasing regularly every day. The daily decrease rate in this supply category is less than 3%. 

As of June 8, 17% of all bitcoin falls into the category of “ancient supply”—meaning these coins have not moved in a decade or more. What could this mean for scarcity, market dynamics, and investors’ conviction? Find our team’s thoughts: https://t.co/EALzrfS92c pic.twitter.com/Ckm3MylTLY

— Fidelity Digital Assets (@DigitalAssets) June 18, 2025

Bitcoin Supply Exceeds 3.4 Million BTC, Yet Market Remains Unmoved 

With the dynamics changing after the 2024 halving, the dormant Bitcoin supply over 10 years has surpassed 3.4 million BTC. This corresponds to about 17% of the total supply. Coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto constitute roughly one-third of this ancient supply. However, many of these coins are likely lost. 

Meanwhile, there has been a more frequent decrease in ancient supply since the 2024 US elections. The report states that the supply of coins held for five years or more has dropped by 39% daily since the election. This rate was normally only around 13%. 

Some long-term investors are realizing profits. As uncertainty increases, the number of coin movers also rises. Wainwright notes that these movements may partly explain the price stagnation and declines seen in the first quarter of 2025. 

However, an important warning exists. The dormant supply surpassing new supply does not necessarily mean a short-term price increase. On the contrary, increased supply activity can exert downward pressure on prices. Although 2025 is traditionally considered the peak of the Bitcoin bull cycle, BTC has only risen by 12% since the start of the year. 

Fidelity notes that as institutional products increase, ancient supply becomes more widespread. This feature differentiates Bitcoin from other assets and could become even more critical in potential demand growth. 

Last week, we highlighted how $BTC wallets that held >12m were the primary profit-takers. But that trend has now flipped. Yesterday:

<12m cohorts accounted for 83% of all realized profit
6–12m holders alone realized $904M – second-highest daily profit YTD pic.twitter.com/gBD8tLCjVG

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 17, 2025

On the other hand, Glassnode data reveals a shift in investor behavior. Profit-taking trends have reversed among different investor groups. 

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Long-Term Bitcoin Activity Increasing 

Glassnode data reveals that the spending volume of Bitcoins held for one to five years has risen to $4.02 billion. This marks the highest level since February and represents the fifth largest spending wave of the bull market. 

Since the start of this bull market, old Bitcoin holders have sold large amounts of BTC after each rally. Investors spent significant amounts of BTC in March, October, November 2024, and February 2025. 

Spending by older $BTC holders is heating up again. Aggregate volume from the 1y–5y cohorts just hit $4.02B – the highest since February.
Older coins are on the move pic.twitter.com/jhMETQFJdB

— glassnode (@glassnode) May 28, 2025

The largest spending in this cycle occurred in October 2024, reaching $9.25 billion. Most of the sales came from investors holding BTC between one and two years. The second and third largest spending waves were in March 2024 ($6.11 billion) and February 2025 ($5.42 billion). During this period, the most active group was investors holding BTC for two to three years. The fourth largest spending was in November 2024, with $4.39 billion spent by investors holding BTC for three to five years. 

Especially, Bitcoin holders with three to five years of holding dominated this period. Their activity alone was measured at $2.16 billion, the second largest sale in the cycle. The largest sale was $6 billion in March 2024. Meanwhile, those holding BTC for two to three years spent $1.41 billion, and holders between one and two years spent $450 million. Previous major movements occurred in October, November 2024, and February 2025, where similar selling waves followed price increases. 

Old wallet holders are either taking profits or repositioning. CoinMarketCap data shows the price dropped over 4% from $111,970. At the time of writing, BTC was around $107,540, down about 3% weekly and 1.2% daily. If the aim is to change strategy, BTC may consolidate further. However, if it’s profit-taking, the price could fall below $106,000. 

***NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE ***

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From only one week ago, when barely over 45% of the BTC supply had been inactive for at least six months, the data—shown in Glassnode’s Hodl Wave chart—showcases a startling increase. Rising to 74% suggests long-term investors clinging to their Bitcoin, maybe in hope of further price increases.

The accumulated and holding of Bitcoin by long-term holders reduces the availability for trading. Should demand increase while the easily available supply declines, this shortage might drive price increases.

Still, the image is not absolutely good. According onchain analyst James Check revealed on Aug. 19, over 80% of Bitcoin held by short-term investors—those who have retained the currency for fewer than 155 days—is now underwater, meaning these buyers paid more than the going market price. This brings to me past cycles when panic selling by short-term holders led to further market disasters.

The overall market attitude is still cautious given the Bitcoin concern and greed index score of 28, which suggests anxiety. Not seen since December 2022 this degree of worry. Reflecting the ongoing volatility in the market, Bitcoin’s price fell from temporarily hitting $60,000 over the weekend to $58,900 at the time of writing.

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