Long-term holders are less aggressive. The profit-taking rate of investors holding ETH for more than 155 days remains around December 2024 levels. This is 39% lower compared to the highest daily profit-taking average seen last month when ETH was at $3,500. 

ETH price currently trades 12.7% below its November 2021 peak of $4,828. According to CoinGlass, if the price reaches $4,700, around $2.23 billion worth of positions could be liquidated. 

Increasing Institutional Demand Amid Price Resistance 

ETH has recently crossed the $4,300 level multiple times but failed to hold above it. Meanwhile, institutional investors are increasing their Ether holdings. Companies with crypto treasuries now hold a total of 3.04 million ETH, equivalent to about $13 billion. 

Additionally, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes resumed Ethereum buying after selling $10.5 million last week. Hayes’ move is seen as a confidence signal for breaking the critical resistance. 

Santiment analysts note that large institutional buys becoming public could trigger FOMO but may also lead to short-term price pauses or declines. The market remains cautious after failed rallies earlier this year. 

Breaking above the $4,300 resistance zone could create new momentum in the market, opening fresh opportunities for both short- and long-term investors. 

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According to Glassnode data, this rise shows LTHs losing confidence and liquidating their coins. Ethereum Liveliness is calculated as the ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days accumulated. When this ratio increases, distribution rises, and the accumulation phase ends. 

CMF Remains in Negative Territory 

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is currently at -0.08. A negative CMF signals reduced capital inflow to ETH and declining buying interest. This decline suggests most Ethereum investors prefer to stay on the sidelines due to market stagnation. Falling buying interest combined with selling pressure increases downward price pressure on ETH. 

New Lows Possible for Ethereum Price 

ETH is currently trading around $2,429. If LTH selling continues, the price could drop to $2,185 and then to $2,027. These levels are short-term support zones. According to FXStreet data, 72,000 ETH entered exchanges on June 20, indicating LTHs are preparing to sell and increasing market selling pressure. TradingView data shows Ethereum is the second most traded cryptocurrency with about 552K active addresses, reflecting direct trading activity only. 

Additionally, the daily (14-period) RSI for Ethereum was about 46.5 on June 21, 2025, a neutral zone around 50, indicating neither oversold (<30) nor overbought (>70) conditions. 

However, a potential demand rebound could reverse this downtrend. With renewed investor interest, ETH price could rise up to $2,745. For this scenario, market momentum must strengthen. 

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IBIT Leads BTC ETF Inflows  

According to Farside Investors, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw $319 million in inflows on Wednesday, with IBIT leading at $223 million. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s mini Bitcoin ETF (BTC) each contributed $35 million. Since mid-April, IBIT has dominated U.S. Bitcoin ETF inflows, setting the stage for a new peak as Bitcoin trades around $103,000.  

Long-Term BTC Investor Cost Basis Rises  

Glassnode reports that BTC Long-Term Holder (LTH) realized price has climbed to $45,340, indicating coins bought between $90,000-$100,000 are transitioning to long-term status. The rising cost basis highlights investor maturity. Analyst Miles Deutscher noted the current rally is driven by spot buying, with giants like BlackRock Bitcoin ETF contributing significantly.  

BTC is currently trading at $102,388, up 1.2%. However, daily trading volume dropped 10% to $44.5 billion. Analyst Ali Martinez suggests a potential pullback to $100,000, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling overbought conditions. Meanwhile, analyst Captan Faibik identified a rising triangle pattern on the hourly chart, suggesting BTC could test the $104,900 resistance. Breaking this level could lead to new all-time highs.  

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF’s leadership underscores how institutional demand is powering the rally. IBIT’s 628,000 BTC in assets reflects strong investor confidence. If BTC breaks the $104,900 resistance, it could reach an all-time high. Investors are closely monitoring these developments.  

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Dogecoin Technical Analysis 

The price has surpassed the psychological resistance of $0.20. It has also moved above the 100 and 200-day moving averages. The price reached $0.25 but faced resistance. The RSI is at 73, in the overbought zone, increasing the risk of a pullback. On the other hand, the 200 EMA support level at $0.21 is critical. If this level holds, token could target $0.30. However, if token unlocks create selling pressure, the price could retreat to $0.20 or $0.19. Open interest (OI) has risen by 8%, reaching $2.17 billion, indicating growing investor interest.

READ:Is Altcoin Season Coming? Bitcoin Maxi Remains Skeptical!

A recent increase in Dogecoin’s Age Consumed metric points to heightened selling activity by long-term holders (LTH). This metric spikes when old coins are transferred or sold, suggesting LTHs are realizing profits or adjusting their portfolios. Notably, after coin’s 36% price surge ($0.17 to $0.23) in late 2024 and early 2025, data indicates LTHs have been selling. Looking at long-term expectations, Benzinga’s report suggests that DOGE could reach the $0.731 level by the end of 2025. This would represent a return of over 300% compared to its current price. However, the realization of such predictions depends on overall market conditions and sustained investor interest.

Token Unlocks and Market Dynamics 

Token unlocks can trigger volatility in the crypto market. Dogecoin’s unlock amount is relatively small. Still, during periods of market saturation or uncertainty, it could shift sentiment. If demand remains strong, DOGE may sustain its current momentum. At the time of writing, it is trading at $0.24907. 

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New Whales’ High Cost Basis 

Firstly, the cost basis of new Bitcoin whales is approximately $91,900. This reflects the average acquisition price of short-term holders (STH) who have purchased over 1,000 BTC ($103.3 million) in the last 155 days. In contrast, the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH) is much lower. This disparity shows that new whales are entering the market at high prices. Moreover, it suggests that new investors taking positions above the current Bitcoin price may face unrealized losses. However, the confidence of these whales in the market could also reflect a long-term bullish outlook. 

Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior 

Additionally, on-chain data provides important clues for understanding investor behavior in the Bitcoin market. The Realized Price indicator, which measures the average cost basis of investors, sheds light on the overall market condition. Currently, the high cost basis of short-term whales indicates new capital inflows into the market. This proves that interest in Bitcoin persists and new players are taking positions despite high prices. On the other hand, the low cost basis of long-term whales shows that they are in profitable positions and contribute to market stability. These dynamics create an important foundation for Bitcoin’s future price movements. 

Furthermore, analysts view Bitcoin’s trajectory above $100,000 positively. Investtech notes that the upward trend continues in the short and medium term, though a reaction may occur at the $105,500 resistance level. On-chain data reflects new capital inflows and whales’ confidence in the market. 

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BTCFi is a fast-evolving sector that integrates DeFi functionality into Bitcoin’s base layer. The total value locked in BTCFi now exceeds $8.6 billion.

“The growing value of BTCFi, coupled with potential interest rate cuts, may reinforce positive sentiment for Bitcoin in the medium to long term,” Binance wrote in the report.

New Yield Opportunities Through BTCFi

A Binance spokesperson noted that continued growth of BTCFi could allow BTC holders to generate yield via lending, liquidity provision, and other DeFi tools — shifting its perception from a store-of-value to a productive on-chain asset.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Interest in BTCFi spiked following the April 2024 Bitcoin halving, which introduced Runes, the first fungible token standard built on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Notable BTCFi initiatives include:

• Babylon enabled BTC staking for the first time, allowing passive income.
• Hermetica launched USDh, the first Bitcoin-backed synthetic dollar, offering 25% yield to investors.

Long-Term Holders Resume BTC Accumulation

According to Binance Research, BTC long-term holders — defined as wallets holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days — have resumed accumulation. This has reduced supply on exchanges, potentially setting the stage for a supply shock-induced price rally.

The trend aligns with broader Bitcoin adoption, including growing institutional interest and the establishment of a strategic reserve.

Donald Trump Signs Bitcoin Reserve Order at White House

On March 7, Donald Trump signed an executive order to form a strategic Bitcoin reserve using seized BTC assets. The move preceded the first White House Crypto Summit, which sparked mixed reactions from the crypto community.

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