High Bets, But Real Confidence Declines

The most popular February scenario remains above $75,000. On Polymarket, over $88 million has been wagered on this position. Yet, the likelihood has dropped below 50%. People are investing, but confidence appears slightly shaken.

Looking at February predictions on Polymarket, a massive $91 million volume is pricing a “below $60,000” outcome at 30%. This is quite significant. While the end-of-February $75,000 expectation remains popular, the probability dropping below 50% is notable. Some investors give the 2026 year-end $150,000 target a 12% chance, while a significant group positions for the short-term under $60,000 scenario. This clearly illustrates the market’s expectation gap: one side anticipates a rally, while the other lies in wait for a deeper correction.

Whale Activity: Who’s Doing What?

The whale front is also confusing; no one seems certain what to do.

• Major whales holding around 100,000 BTC added roughly 13,000 BTC—a cautious accumulation signal.
• Medium-sized whales holding around 10,000 BTC sold about 10,000 BTC during the same period.
• Long-term investors reduced selling pressure by 67%; actually, strong buying support has still not formed. This keeps Bitcoin hovering in the $64–65k range.

$72,000: Resistance Zone and Trap

Technically, the $72,600–$73,200 range is critical. Around 149,000 BTC has accumulated here. If the price approaches this level, breakeven investors may close positions. Current whale accumulation may not absorb this supply completely, making $72,000 a significant hurdle.

Actually, to understand why Bitcoin hasn’t risen, looking only at technicals isn’t enough; psychological resistance is at play as well. Unless $72,000 is conquered, selling pressure may persist, limiting upward attempts.

Technical Scenarios and Possibilities

Bitcoin reacted from $60,000 and tested $72,000 resistance but failed. It now trades in the $64–65k range. Constant support testing weakens the structure, actually.

If, by some miracle, Bitcoin maintains above $72,000, the OTE (Fib 0.79–0.705) zone between $86,700–$89,950 could be tested. However, within the current trend, these moves may remain short-term pullbacks; there’s no need to rush.

Market Divergence and Real-Time Pulse

Prediction markets still support $75,000, while on-chain data and large investor activity paint a more cautious picture. The under-$60,000 scenario remains possible at 12%.

This divergence shows a hesitant market; whales are accumulating, but some remain cautious. Actually, monitoring the market pulse is essential; the energy required for a major breakout is not yet in place.

This analysis reflects Polymarket data, recent whale movements, and Bitcoin’s last 12-hour price fluctuations to capture the real-time market pulse.

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The post Bitcoin Drops to $64,290, Yet Polymarket Bets Still Eye $75,000 appeared first on Coin Engineer.

One of the significant reasons for this change is the increase in Bitcoin purchases in over-the-counter (OTC) markets by major players like BlackRock following the approval of the ETF. This indicates a decrease in the habit of directing assets to exchanges.

As a result, even after ETF approval, long-term investors do not seem to prefer investing in exchanges despite sharp declines in their assets. However, it is necessary to closely monitor BlackRock’s net inflow into Bitcoin and Bitcoin transfers to exchanges to determine whether this situation is exceptional or not. Consequently, the situation is as follows: “On-chain Analysis: Long-term Investors Concerned”

Currently, a continuous downward trend is observed in BlackRock’s net entries into Bitcoin. This may indicate a possible change in the market. If this trend continues, the scenario where long-term investors may redirect towards exchanges can arise. Therefore, tracking these dynamics in the cryptocurrency markets and the movements of major players can be an important strategic approach for investors.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post On-chain Analysis: Long-term Investor Concerned! appeared first on Coin Engineer.