A Cycle Never Seen in Bitcoin’s History

Historically, Bitcoin’s market movements have been shaped by two overlapping cycles: the four-year Bitcoin halving cycle and the expansion of global M2 money supply. Central banks have historically injected liquidity into the economy in four-year intervals, which has coincided with Bitcoin’s bull markets.

However, Woo argues that the upcoming bear market will be shaped by a “cycle people have forgotten” — the business cycle. “The last major business cycle contractions occurred in 2001 and 2008, before Bitcoin even existed,” Woo noted. This means that Bitcoin’s behavior during a traditional economic recession has yet to be tested. He added, “If we get a business cycle downturn like 2001 or 2008, it will show whether Bitcoin acts more like tech stocks or like gold.”

Business Cycles and the Liquidity Effect

A business cycle downturn, also known as a recession, occurs when GDP declines, unemployment rises, and consumer spending weakens — signaling a contraction in economic activity. Woo emphasized that crypto markets do not operate in isolation; they are deeply influenced by liquidity conditions in the global economy.

For instance, during the dot-com crash of 2001, U.S. stock markets fell by over 50% in two years. Similarly, the 2008 financial crisis triggered a 56% plunge in the S&P 500, driven by collapsing credit markets and widespread financial instability. These events show how powerful liquidity shocks can reshape entire asset classes — including, potentially, digital assets like Bitcoin.

Rising Risks for the Next Cycle

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tracks employment, income, industrial production, and retail sales to identify potential recessions. Although there was a brief pandemic-related downturn in 2020, no major recession appears imminent at the moment. Still, persistent trade tariffs and slowing global growth could weigh on markets throughout the first half of 2026.

Woo concluded that markets are inherently speculative — they price in future expectations, including money supply shifts. “Either Bitcoin is signaling that global markets have peaked, or it’s about to catch up,” he said.

In other words, the fate of the next crypto bear market may not hinge solely on Bitcoin’s halving cycles but on the broader rhythm of the global economy.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post What Could Trigger the Next Crypto Bear Market? Analyst Warns! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

US Debt and Money Supply Growth

US Representative Thomas Massie noted that the federal debt surpassed $37 trillion thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. US President Donald Trump signed the legislation on July 4, stating it could cut up to $1.6 trillion in federal spending.

Analysts suggest that growing budget deficits may prompt central banks to adopt looser policies like quantitative easing (large-scale bond purchases). This could inject liquidity into the financial system, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Growth Potential

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget crypto exchange, highlights that US debt rose from $26.7 trillion in 2020 to $37 trillion over five years—a 38% increase—while Bitcoin gained 925% during the same period. According to Lee, as debt grows, the likelihood of BTC reaching new all-time highs also increases.

Moreover, the US government might consider Bitcoin as a tool to manage its debt, potentially boosting BTC’s value in correlation with global money supply and inflation.

M2 Money Supply and Inflation Effects on Bitcoin Price

Debt servicing could drive a rise in the global M2 money supply, acting as a new catalyst for Bitcoin price. Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, estimates that this could push BTC above $132,000 by the end of 2025.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, adds that if the US Federal Reserve returns to QE and inflation pressures rise, BTC could climb as high as $250,000.

These developments indicate that rising inflation and expanding money supply could serve as significant bullish catalysts for Bitcoin.

This content is not financial advice. Markets carry high risk, and it’s essential to conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post How US Debt and M2 Money Supply Could Impact Bitcoin Price? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

The BTC/USD pair rose by 2.43% in the last 24 hours, reaching $109,500, with trading volume increasing by 20% to $56 billion. The main driver behind this rise is Bitcoin’s synchronized movement with the global M2 money supply. The M2 money supply has reached an all-time high of $55.48 trillion. 

Additionally, Coinglass data supports the upward trend. A 7.28% increase in open interest on BTC futures indicates a generally bullish market. 

Peter Brandt’s Bold Bitcoin Prediction: $140K Target in Sight 

The analyst emphasized Bitcoin is in a strong breakout pattern in a chart shared on the X platform. Brandt questioned, “Isn’t this bearish flag too obvious to fail?” According to Brandt, after this breakout, BTC is aiming first for $104,000, then $140,000. This outlook aligns with forecasts from major institutions like Standard Chartered and is supported by the Global M2 curve that Bitcoin has followed consistently since early 2024. 

Is this bear flag (yellow box) so obvious to everyone so as to not work?
Or is this chart about to drop off a cliff?
Just asking. CTB$ pic.twitter.com/x3c9ABwVx5

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 3, 2025

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin to $90K Before Jackson Hole 

However, Maelstrom Fund CIO Arthur Hayes is more cautious. He believes June’s CPI data and July’s FOMC decision may tighten market liquidity. The restructuring of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could significantly withdraw liquidity from the market. 

Hayes stated, “The market will move sideways or slightly down until Powell’s Jackson Hole speech.” He highlighted a potential drop to the $90,000–$95,000 range for BTC. Preparing for this scenario, Maelstrom Fund sold illiquid altcoin positions and reduced Bitcoin exposure. 

FOMC and CPI Data to Decide Bitcoin’s Fate 

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s direction will largely depend on economic data and central bank decisions. If inflation falls below expectations, real yields remain low, attracting capital to non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, if the Fed softens its hawkish stance and slows balance sheet reduction, it could trigger a new bull run. 

CPI data and the Fed’s tone will determine the strength of this move. The battle between bulls and bears will become clearer in the coming days. 

 You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin Breakout: $140K Target or $90K Drop? appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Core Inflation and Fed Interest Rate Expectations  

Federal Reserve officials and market participants are closely monitoring the impact of this inflation increase on interest rate policies. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have previously indicated that they may delay rate cuts if inflation remains higher than expected. For instance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently stated, “Controlling inflation remains our priority.”  

Following May’s data, the likelihood of a rate cut in June has significantly diminished. According to the Kalshi prediction platform, rate cut expectations have dropped sharply. This shift has affected investors’ risk appetite, causing new volatility in financial assets.  

Liquidity and Inflation Reaction in Crypto Markets  

Global liquidity growth has fueled gains in cryptocurrency markets. Experts note that Bitcoin rose 4% to $110,000, moving in sync with the increase in M2 money supply. Other cryptos like Ethereum and Solana also saw similar gains. Analysts highlight that Bitcoin tends to follow changes in M2 money supply within a 71-day cycle.  

Investors eagerly await the June 11 CPI report. This data will reveal whether inflation is persistent and what path the Fed will take. Markets expect interest rates to remain around 425-450 basis points. However, inflation continues to rise. In this environment, the Fed prefers to wait before cutting rates. Federal Reserve officials, especially Chair Jerome Powell and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, have indicated they would not consider rate cuts if inflation becomes persistent.  

Traditional assets such as bonds and stocks could remain pressured due to inflation. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies continue to benefit from increased global liquidity, deepening the divergence between markets.  

In summary, today’s US CPI report will be the most critical data guiding the markets.  

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post US Inflation Data to Be Released Today Could Shake Markets! appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Why Is Bitcoin Not Facing Selling Pressure?  

Glassnode analyzed this situation and pointed out that despite 100% supply profitability, investors remain cautious about selling their Bitcoin holdings. According to the platform, the total profit-taking volume at prices above $111,000 was around $1 billion. This figure is less than half of the $2.1 billion recorded when BTC first crossed $100,000 last December.  

Funding rates indicate that Bitcoin’s current rally is healthy and organic. These rates were six times higher in Q1 and three times higher in Q4 of last year. The current low rates suggest minimal speculative activity in the futures market.  

This means the rally is driven by real purchases in the spot market rather than leveraged trading. As a result, the risk of sudden and sharp corrections is reduced, offering a safer environment for investors.  

Glassnode stated:  

“Despite higher prices, profit realization was much more limited.”  

This data shows that current investors remain patient and focused on the long term. At the same time, it supports the view that Bitcoin still holds strong upside potential. Analysts say Bitcoin’s rise is fueled by spot buying rather than leveraged positions, with futures funding rates remaining low, indicating restrained risk-taking and more organic price moves.  

On the liquidity side, there is a noticeable increase in stablecoin supply. Moreover, the global M2 money supply growth points to a large cash reserve ready to be deployed in the market. All these factors support the idea that Bitcoin can continue rising.  

Additionally, global liquidity trends continue to provide support for BTC. The global M2 money supply, which measures the total money circulating in major economies, grew by 5% in Q1 2025. This growth was influenced by monetary policy easing in the US, European Union, and Japan.  

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE  

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Bitcoin Hits New High Without Selling Pressure, Glassnode Reports   appeared first on Coin Engineer.

According to European digital asset firm CoinShares, global crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) attracted $6.3 billion over the past four weeks, making up 93% of total year-to-date (YTD) inflows.

So far this year, total inflows have reached $6.7 billion, inching closer to the all-time record of $7.3 billion set in early February.

Bitcoin Dominates With $867M In Weekly Inflows

Last week, Bitcoin investment products led the surge with $867 million in inflows, pushing BTC‘s YTD total to $6.6 billion and lifting its assets under management (AUM) to $146 billion.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

As a result, total global crypto AUM rose to $169 billion, now just 2.5% below the record $173.3 billion recorded at the end of January.

Still, the latest weekly inflow figure of $882 million marked a slowdown compared to $2 billion and $3.4 billion in the previous two weeks.

BlackRock Leads the Pack, Grayscale Lags Behind

In the US, crypto ETFs continued to break new ground. BlackRock’s iShares products attracted a staggering $1 billion in inflows last week alone.

With $8.1 billion in YTD inflows, BlackRock has outpaced the entire industry total, while Grayscale and Bitwise saw weekly outflows of $168 million and $27 million, respectively.

Meanwhile, Fidelity and ARK Invest reversed their previous trends with $62 million and $46 million in new capital, respectively.

Bullish Trend Driven by Macro Factors

CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill pointed to several key drivers for the bullish sentiment: a global rise in M2 money supply, stagflation risks in the US, and multiple US states recognizing Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

The total crypto market cap currently stands at $3.5 trillion, just 11% below the record $3.9 trillion hit in December 2024.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $104,407, slightly below its all-time high above $106,000 posted in mid-December.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post US Crypto Funds Near Record With $6.3B Inflows Over Four Weeks appeared first on Coin Engineer.

According to market analysts, there are four main catalysts behind this trend: an expanding global money supply, the growth of stablecoins, the resilience of altcoins, and increasing regulatory clarity.

Why the Money Supply Matters

One of the most important metrics right now is the M2 money supply, which includes physical cash, checking accounts, and easily accessible short-term investments. As M2 continues to grow, it indicates that more funds are available for both consumer spending and market investments.

Historically, crypto assets tend to respond positively to M2 expansion—typically within 11 weeks. This means that the current rise in liquidity could translate into upward momentum for crypto prices in the near future.

Altcoins Show Strength Amid Uncertainty

Even after two significant corrections that wiped out over $1 billion in market value, many altcoins are showing notable strength. Rather than collapsing under pressure, several projects have continued to build and maintain investor confidence.

One example is Sui (SUI). The total value locked (TVL) in Sui’s DeFi ecosystem has now surpassed $1.5 billion. The network’s core liquidity layer, DeepBook, is gaining traction, with more developers contributing and growing user interest.

Stablecoin Growth Reaches New Heights

Another major indicator is the record-breaking growth in stablecoin supply, which has now reached $231 billion—the highest ever recorded. Stablecoins like USDT and USDC act as a form of “dry powder” in the market, representing buying power that’s waiting to be deployed.

What’s more, stablecoin usage is expanding across new blockchain networks. Over the past month, networks like Base, Solana, and Sui processed more than $8 billion in stablecoin volume, indicating a broader adoption beyond traditional chains.

Regulation Is Becoming More Transparent

Lastly, crypto regulation in the U.S. is beginning to take shape. Proposed legislation such as the Genius Act is designed to simplify the process of launching stablecoins. As legal frameworks become clearer, it could lead to faster, more secure, and more accessible crypto transactions.

This content is not intended as investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are high risk and it is important to do your own research before making any investment decisions.

You can also freely share your thoughts and comments about the topic in the comment section. Additionally, don’t forget to follow us on our Telegram, YouTube, and Twitter channels for the latest news and updates.

The post Four Key Drivers That Could Fuel the Next Crypto Rally appeared first on Coin Engineer.