Geopolitical uncertainty and shifts in interest rate expectations have led institutions to allocate capital to gold and silver. Silver, in particular, has amplified gold’s movement due to limited supply and sensitivity to speculative flows. Gold surpassed $4,500 per ounce for the first time, showing strong performance compared to Bitcoin. Silver rose to $72.27, supporting gold’s movement.

10X Research founder Markus Thielen argues that Bitcoin’s lag in 2025 is primarily because the “digital gold” narrative has failed to attract institutional capital on Wall Street. While physical assets like gold and copper posted strong gains, Bitcoin did not gain enough from safe-haven or tech-focused investments.

Bitcoin Investors Remain Cautious

Bitcoin is still seen as a high-volatility risk asset. In risk-off periods, capital flows first into gold and government bonds, while Bitcoin remains secondary.

According to CryptoQuant, apparent Bitcoin demand has turned negative. Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR remains below 1, indicating that short-term investors are exiting at a loss or break-even, increasing selling pressure. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profit or loss of a coin by comparing purchase and sale prices.

Macro Factors Limit Bitcoin’s Upside

Gold and silver have long-term, less price-sensitive investor bases, whereas Bitcoin remains dependent on short-term positioning and marginal demand. Hence, macroeconomic tailwinds alone cannot drive Bitcoin higher.

• Gold prices have risen around 12% since the start of the year, supported by central bank purchases.

• Silver has increased about 15% due to tighter supply and speculative demand.

• Bitcoin, by contrast, has remained sideways, fluctuating between 3–5%.

Bitcoin vs Gold Performance

The BTC-gold ratio, which shows the amount of gold required to buy one Bitcoin, fell from roughly 40 ounces in December 2024 to 20 ounces in 2025, a 50% drop. This reflects strong gold performance and institutional inflows rather than a collapse in Bitcoin demand.

Central banks purchased 254 tons of gold by October, and global gold ETF assets rose by 397 tons in the first half of 2025. Bitcoin demand weakened in H2; managed assets in spot ETFs declined from $152B to $112B, and long-term holders sold more than 500,000 BTC.

What Investors Should Expect

XWIN Research Japan’s base scenario:

• Gold and silver remain supported by safe-asset flows.

• Bitcoin’s upside is limited by weak demand and short-term investor pressure.

However, if apparent demand turns sustainably positive and STH SOPR stabilizes above 1, this assessment should be revisited.

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A COVID-Like Macro Environment: Is Bitcoin Undervalued?

Dragosch explains that the last time he observed such a compelling market structure was in March 2020, when intense global uncertainty pushed Bitcoin from around $8,000 to below $5,000. Today, he argues, Bitcoin is once again behaving as though market sentiment and macroeconomic expectations are deeply out of sync.

He notes that Bitcoin appears to be “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” a year marked by aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and the collapse of major crypto firms like FTX.

Bitcoin Has Already Priced In a Recession Scenario

According to Dragosch, Bitcoin is trading as if a recession were already underway. He emphasizes that much of the negative news flow is already reflected in the current price. This contrasts with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent reassurance that the country is not projected to enter a recession in 2026.

Market structure, however, has remained shaky. After hitting a new all-time high of $125,100 on October 5, Bitcoin entered a decline triggered by a $19 billion liquidation event on October 10. Additional pressure came from U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports.

Sentiment worsened further when Bitcoin slid below the psychological $100,000 threshold on November 13. The price briefly dipped under $90,000 on November 20 before rebounding above the level in the following days.

Global Growth Could Strengthen Through 2026

Dragosch believes that earlier monetary stimulus could start feeding into global markets, supporting economic expansion into 2026 — a pattern similar to the post-COVID recovery phase. This, he suggests, could lay the foundation for significant upside in Bitcoin.

“I genuinely think we’re looking at a similar macro backdrop right now,” he said, indicating optimism toward Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.

Market Participants Are Also Leaning Bullish

Other analysts share this perspective. Crypto trader Alessio Rastani argues that the latest pullback does not indicate a new bear cycle, but instead resembles a historically repeating setup that has preceded strong rallies about 75% of the time.

Meanwhile, BitMine Chair Tom Lee recently expressed confidence that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark before year-end and could even push toward new all-time highs.

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The post Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Offers Historically Asymmetric Risk-Return Opportunity! appeared first on Coin Engineer.