Market Analysis and Historical Parallels

Cowen evaluates Bitcoin’s decline through the lens of the four-year cycle theory and macroeconomic factors. Historically, Bitcoin tends to peak in the fourth quarter following halving events. Previous cycles in 2013, 2017, 2021, and the current 2025 cycle confirm this trend. However, Cowen highlights that this cycle is also influenced by macro conditions similar to 2019.

According to Cowen, the return-on-investment (ROI) curve from the bottom mirrors prior cycles. The 2016–2017 cycle lasted roughly 1,067 days, 2020–2021 about 1,059 days, and the current cycle around 1,062 days, showing Bitcoin’s cyclicality and historical price behavior remain relevant.

Critical Signal: 50-Week Moving Average

Cowen notes that Bitcoin’s inability to stay above its 50-week moving average (~$103,000) for several weeks would signal a key market pattern. Historically, similar behavior marked the 2021 peak.

Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? CryptoQuant Insights

Retail Investor Apathy

Cowen highlights that the lack of an altcoin season underscores reduced retail participation. Social interest and investor behavior mirror the 2019 scenario, suggesting patience is crucial.

He also recalls that BTC peaked near the end of monetary tightening in 2019, followed by a weak period. Today, high interest rates continue to pressure risk assets, and even if rates start falling, Bitcoin may not experience an immediate rebound.

Long-Term Opportunities

By analyzing past cycles, Cowen points out that patient investors often profit in bear markets. For example, early investors in the 2017 and 2021 cycles gained significant long-term returns despite missing short-term peaks. Similarly, investors who remain patient toward 2026 may find opportunities in Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin Cycles and October Outlook 

Analyst Inmortal noted that previous bull runs lasted around 1,060 days. His chart highlighted boxes marking each cycle from bottom to top. Inmortal stated, “If history repeats, the bull run ends in October.” Analyst Jelle echoed this view, pointing out that Bitcoin may only have around 55 days left in this cycle. 

At the same time, Jelle emphasized altcoin behavior. He argued that Solana and Ethereum are preparing for new price levels since altcoins often peak a month after BTC. Analyst Ali reinforced this with technical evidence, citing a weekly RSI divergence. The same signal preceded the 2021 bear market, raising further caution. 

September Weakness and Macro Factors 

Bitcoin faces its weakest month historically as September approaches. Coinglass data shows an average return of –3.77% during this period. Indicators such as Spot Taker CVD and BTC’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio also reflect mounting selling pressure. However, market sentiment remains as important as technical indicators. Colin Talks Crypto highlighted this point, saying, “We haven’t seen peak euphoria yet.” 

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision could strongly influence Bitcoin’s direction into year-end. Volatility in September may reshape investor strategies across the market. Bitcoin’s bull run has already entered its third year, with price levels still below the widely anticipated $100,000 mark. Investors seem to focus more on the scale of the rally rather than its duration. Moreover, altcoin momentum continues to indirectly affect Bitcoin’s trajectory. 

In the end, technical signals suggest that October could become a turning point. Yet sentiment and macroeconomic events may shift the timeline. This makes the coming weeks a decisive phase for Bitcoin’s future direction. 

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Following a strong rally in April, BTC price entered its first significant correction phase. The asset fell from its all-time high of approximately $111,970 to below $105,000. This decline was notably influenced by increasing open positions in derivative markets. Bitfinex analysts reported that the liquidation of many long positions pressured prices downward. 

Bitcoin Options Open Interest Signals Rising Volatility

The recent two-week pullback has revealed a notable acceleration in short-term profit-taking in the crypto market. Market participants remain cautious about whether Bitcoin will resume its upward trend. Rising volatility has intensified uncertainties about the market’s direction. 

Moreover, open positions in Bitcoin perpetual futures have also increased rapidly, indicating investors’ preference for actively positioning against price movements. According to Bitfinex analysts, this concentration suggests deeper institutional participation and heightened market sensitivity to volatility. 

Bitfinex analysts stated: 

“The key point here is that the significant increase in derivative activities signals expanding institutional involvement. Coming after Bitcoin’s recent all-time highs, it shows market participants positioning themselves for increased volatility.” 

After the options expiry on May 29, open interest dropped to $39 billion but remains well above historical averages. High open interest especially highlights institutional investors turning to hedging strategies. 

Macro Factors and Profit Taking 

Meanwhile, rising U.S. Treasury yields, a strengthening dollar, and developments in trade policies triggered a broader risk-off sentiment in crypto markets. Pressure on Bitcoin intensified alongside these macro winds, with aggressive profit-taking accelerating the price drop. 

However, the Relative Unrealized Profit metric shows that investors on the network still hold above-average paper profits. This indicates that selling pressure is not yet exhausted and short-term volatility may continue. 

In summary, these data suggest that although the market structure remains strong, short-term turbulence potential is increasing. The sustainability of demand will be a critical factor in determining the price movement direction. 

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