That scenario undermines the assumption that an era of cheap money is close at hand. For Bitcoin, whose bullish narrative has leaned heavily on falling inflation and faster rate cuts, the timing now looks far less certain. As inflation risks rebuild, the Federal Reserve’s room to ease policy appears increasingly constrained.

Inflation Pressures Are Re-Emerging

According to the analysis, several structural forces are resurfacing. Tariffs introduced during the Trump administration, tighter labor markets, and persistent fiscal deficits are regaining influence. Crucially, the authors argue that importers have not yet fully passed tariff-related costs on to consumers.

Posen and Orszag estimate that this delayed cost pass-through could be largely completed by mid-2026. When it is, headline inflation may receive an additional 50 basis point boost. At the same time, immigration policies and widening budget gaps risk offsetting productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence.

Bitcoin and Bonds Face the Same Constraint

Rising Treasury yields reinforce this message. The U.S. 10-year yield recently climbed to 4.31%, its highest level in five months, reducing the appeal of risk assets. Analysts at crypto exchange Bitunix warn that easing policy before structural inflation pressures clearly subside could force a sharper adjustment later.

Bitcoin bulls continue to price in aggressive rate cuts. However, inflation that remains near or above 4% weakens that thesis. As borrowing costs stay elevated, liquidity-driven rallies become harder to sustain.

At this stage, the core risk is not price alone but timing. If inflation fails to cool as expected, the recovery narrative for crypto assets may be delayed rather than denied.

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The post Analysis: U.S. Inflation Is Set to Pressure Bitcoin Bulls appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Key Macroeconomic Events To Watch

The week begins with a strong focus on the US labor market. On Tuesday, the Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment rate will offer fresh insight into economic momentum. A softer jobs print could reinforce expectations of looser financial conditions, while a strong outcome may revive rate-hike concerns.

On Wednesday, investors will turn their attention to the Eurozone’s annual inflation data. A reading in line with expectations would support the European Central Bank’s cautious stance. Thursday’s ECB rate decision stands out as one of the week’s most important events, even though no rate change is anticipated. Markets will closely analyze the policy statement for future guidance.

Later in the week, US inflation data takes center stage again. The annual CPI and Core PCE Price Index will serve as critical indicators for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation trend, potentially impacting bond yields and the US dollar.

Crypto Market Developments In Focus

From a digital asset perspective, one of the most closely watched events is the expected SEC meeting focused on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Any regulatory signals from this meeting could have immediate implications for market sentiment.

On Wednesday, Binance is set to delist FIS, REI, and VOXEL, a move that may increase short-term volatility for the affected tokens. The same day, Coinbase is scheduled to release an announcement, which investors are monitoring closely for strategic or product-related updates.

US housing data, including existing home sales, along with the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations and consumer sentiment surveys, may also indirectly influence crypto markets by shaping broader risk perceptions.

Weekly Highlights At A Glance

• Monday: SEC meeting on Bitcoin and crypto assets

• Tuesday: US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate

• Wednesday: Binance delistings and Eurozone CPI data

• Thursday: ECB interest rate decision and US annual CPI

• Friday: Bank of Japan rate decision and US Core PCE data

In addition, a total of five Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled throughout the week. Their remarks could trigger short-term market volatility as investors reassess interest rate expectations. Overall, the coming days are set to be decisive for both traditional markets and the crypto ecosystem, as data-driven signals guide the next market move.

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The World Gold Council’s latest data shows that central banks purchased a net 53 tons of gold in October, marking the strongest monthly demand of 2025. Poland and Brazil led the buying trend, followed by several emerging-market economies seeking to diversify away from the US dollar. This renewed appetite reflects shifting reserve preferences across developing countries.

Poland added 16 tons in October, lifting its reserves to 531 tons, around 26 percent of its total foreign assets. Brazil also bought 16 tons, while Uzbekistan added 9 and Indonesia 4. Türkiye, the Czech Republic and Kyrgyzstan increased holdings by 2 to 3 tons. Ghana, China, Kazakhstan and the Philippines expanded reserves gradually, whereas Russia reduced its holdings by 3 tons to 2,327.

Central banks are ramping up gold purchases:

Global central banks purchased +53 tonnes of gold in October, the most since November 2024.

This marks a +194% jump compared to July, and the 3rd-straight monthly acceleration.

In the first 10 months of the year, central banks have… pic.twitter.com/7pZWyEjjvf

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 4, 2025

A New Phase in the US Bitcoin Debate

The United States has intensified its discussion around Bitcoin after establishing a national BTC reserve framework. The initiative became official with a presidential order in March 2025, designating Bitcoin as a national reserve asset and placing about 200,000 BTC under Treasury management through seized funds. Analysts argue this approach could influence long-term debt dynamics, though others warn that large-scale government accumulation may impact market stability.

Momentum is also growing at the state level. In November, Texas became the first US state to purchase Bitcoin for its treasury, investing 10 million dollars through BlackRock’s spot ETF during a price dip. Seventeen states are now reviewing similar reserve legislation, signaling deeper integration of digital assets into public finance.

A Global Shift Toward Digital Reserves?

The trend is not limited to the United States. Governments across Asia and Europe are reassessing their reserve compositions and considering whether to include digital assets. Countries aiming to reduce reliance on the US dollar are exploring alternatives more actively.

Forecasts vary among analysts. VanEck estimates that acquiring one million Bitcoin by 2029 could offset roughly 18 percent of US federal debt by 2049. CoinShares highlights potential benefits for technological leadership and inflation protection, while Chainalysis warns of instability if multiple nations accumulate BTC simultaneously.

Some projections suggest Bitcoin may appear on central bank balance sheets by 2030, complementing gold as a dual safe-haven structure. As the global economic order evolves, countries are accelerating their search for next-generation reserve strategies, and digital assets are becoming an increasingly important part of that conversation.

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Bitcoin price quickly recovered after the weekend drop

Bitcoin had briefly slipped to 84,500 dollars during Sunday’s cascade of liquidations. However, the price erased all losses within two days and reclaimed the 92,000-dollar level, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the move as a healthy recovery and noted that holding above 92,000 dollars remains essential for the next breakout. He also compared the latest drop to previous cycle shakeouts and said indicators had become heavily oversold.

Bitcoin reached an intraday high of 93,040 dollars on Coinbase early Wednesday, according to TradingView. The rebound demonstrated strengthening demand as BTC recovered the full 8,000-dollar decline from the weekend flush. Meanwhile the crypto market saw rising trading volumes, suggesting increasing interest from both short-term traders and longer-term investors.

Macro optimism and ETF inflows boost expectations

Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, said he remains confident that Bitcoin will revisit six-figure territory in the coming months. He pointed to renewed expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and improving macro conditions that support risk assets. At the same time rising spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continue to reinforce institutional demand, offering a strong backdrop for upward momentum. As a result the bitcoin price outlook appears more constructive heading into late 2025.

Crypto market sentiment has also improved alongside higher liquidity and strengthening participation from large investors. Although volatility remains elevated, analysts highlight that the underlying trend for BTC is still upward. This aligns with patterns seen in previous market cycles where strong rebounds preceded major price expansions.

Key support zone will determine Bitcoin’s next major move

Before the rebound, analysts highlighted the 86,000- to 88,000-dollar range as a crucial support area for bitcoin price. Market commentator Crazzyblockk noted that this zone had held more than sixty retests in recent months, making any breakdown highly significant. Trading above this region indicates reduced selling pressure and stronger conviction among active market participants.

• The 86,000–88,000 dollar zone remains the primary support level for bitcoin price.
• Losing this support could open the door to lower market targets and renewed selling.
• Holding above the zone strengthens the structure for a potential move toward 100,000 dollars.

Bitcoin was trading above 93,700 dollars at the time of writing as the crypto market maintained its recovery trend. Strengthening momentum and improving macro expectations continue to support analysts’ bullish outlook for BTC’s path toward the 100,000-dollar level.

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The post Bitcoin Rebounds to $93K as Analysts Again Target $100K appeared first on Coin Engineer.

Average Inflation Target on the Table

Powell stated that the idea of a “moderate overshoot of inflation following weakness” has become obsolete. He indicated that strategies such as average inflation targeting could be reconsidered. This evaluation is interpreted as a sign that the shifting global economic dynamics in the post-pandemic era may lead to permanent changes in monetary policy.

You Might Be Interested In: Elon Musk Talks About the Name of a New Memecoin!

Emphasizing that we may be entering a period of more frequent supply shocks, Powell noted that this situation brings with it the need for new flexibility in the policy framework.

Revisions in Fed Communication on the Agenda

The Fed Chair also stated that changes to the institution’s communication style and strategic messaging could be on the table. He emphasized that the definitions used in relation to employment shortfalls and price stability goals need to be reassessed.

These statements indicate that the Fed continues its effort to adapt its current policy framework to future conditions.

Silence on the Interest Rate Path

One of the most striking aspects of Powell’s speech was the lack of any comment on the short-term economic outlook or the interest rate trajectory. This is interpreted as a conscious decision by the Fed to maintain its data-driven approach and avoid giving a clear directional signal.

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