Macroeconomic Pressures Could Drag Bitcoin Down to $100K!

Arthur Hayes attributes the recent crypto market pullback to renewed tariff concerns, triggered by a disappointing U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed only 73,000 new jobs were added in July — a sign of economic fragility. Additionally, sluggish credit growth in major economies and stalled nominal GDP growth are contributing to fears that Bitcoin and Ethereum could fall further to the $100,000 and $3,000 levels, respectively.

Arthur Hayes Sells Over $13M in Crypto Assets

His comments came in response to an X post from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, which highlighted Hayes’ recent sell-off of $8.32 million worth of ETH, $4.62 million of Ethena (ENA), and $414,700 of Pepe (PEPE). After these sales, Hayes’ wallet now holds $28.3 million worth of tokens, with $22.95 million parked in USDC stablecoin.

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Bitcoin on the Verge of a Double-Digit Correction!

Hayes‘ remarks reflect broader fears that macroeconomic headwinds could stymie the momentum of the crypto market. Tight credit, renewed tariffs, and a weakening job market may place pressure on risk-on assets, testing investor conviction and potentially triggering a correction. Bitcoin has fallen over 7.7% from its all-time high of $123,000 on July 14, while Ether has dropped 12.5% since surpassing $3,900 on July 28.

Is Bitcoin Different This Time?

However, many industry analysts believe that Bitcoin has moved past the days of major double-digit pullbacks. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that since BlackRock‘s spot Bitcoin ETF filing in June 2023, Bitcoin has experienced “Much less volatility and no vomit-inducing drawdowns.” Mitchell Askew, head analyst at Bitcoin mining firm Blockware Solutions, added, “The days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over.”

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Bitcoin More Resistant to Macroeconomic Pressures

According to a report dated April 14, Bitcoin’s recent price movements show increasing resistance to macroeconomic pressures. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices dropped to their lowest levels in a year and bond yields reached their highest point since 2007, Bitcoin’s decline remained relatively limited, returning to price levels seen around the U.S. election period.

This situation signals a significant change compared to the crypto asset’s past performance during crises. Previously, Bitcoin suffered much sharper losses than traditional financial indexes in similar scenarios. Now, it appears to be perceived as a more durable financial instrument.

Institutional Interest and ETFs Play a Key Role

Crypto research expert Alex Obchakevich argues that this outlook may not be permanent. According to him, if global trade wars intensify, investors may once again turn to gold as a safe haven, and Bitcoin may return to the category of risky assets.

However, for now, increasing institutional interest through ETFs and Bitcoin’s decentralized nature positioning it as “digital gold” are considered the main reasons behind this stability.

Bitcoin Price Rises with Inflation Signals

In the past week, the price of Bitcoin rose by 7% to reach $83,700, later approaching the $86,000 level. This growth coincided with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.4% year-over-year and declining 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first monthly drop since May 2020. This is interpreted as a key signal of slowing inflation.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.7% in March, down from 3.2% in February, further supporting the idea that inflationary pressures are easing. However, experts warn that this may not last in the long run:

“Despite progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the rise in global trade tensions may trigger new inflation risks in the coming periods.”

New Economic Crises and the Shift Toward Bitcoin

Some analysts suggest that the U.S.’s trade policies may cause global economic turmoil, potentially accelerating the shift toward Bitcoin. For instance, Jeff Park believes that new tariffs will lead to rising inflation, and this burden will be shared by both the U.S. and its trading partners. However, developing economies are likely to suffer more from this impact.

In light of all these developments, the probability of a recession is also increasing. Prediction platform Kalshi puts the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 61%, while JPMorgan estimates it at 60%.

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